JUST WHAT YOU NEEDED: ONE MORE KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS
By Johnny D.
It’s Kentucky Derby time and we’ve got just what you need: Another Kentucky Derby Analysis!
I know you’re already totally confused about how this year’s big race will turn out. Fine, that’s the way you’re supposed to feel just before the Derby; particularly this year’s edition.
So, in an effort to condense all the pertinent info into one concise Kentucky Derby run-down, we present one man’s review of each contender including Positives, Negatives and Analysis.
Good luck, and if you strike it rich on this race, don’t forget where you got all that great information.
| PP | HORSE | JOCKEY | TRAINER | ODDS |
| 1. | SEDGEFIELD | Leparoux | Miller | 50-1 |
Positives:
The crowing achievement in Sedgefield’s career is his runner-up finish to Hard Spun in the Lane’s End at Keeneland. He also won an allowance race on the turf at Gulfstream and a maiden test at Tufway on Polytrack. The Derby is contested over a natural dirt surface.
Negatives:
Read the positives. That should be enough to get you to pass on this one.
Analysis:
We can’t see Sedgefield getting a piece of this Derby.
| 2. | CURLIN | Albarado | Asmussen | 7/2 |
Positives:
Undefeated after three magnificent starts, he is the current darling of the racing world. He won the Arkansas Derby like a good horse—sat comfortably behind a lone pacesetter, took control at will and drew off in good time. He has the ability to relax just off the lead and then kick. He has run Beyer speed figures over 100 in two of three starts. He has already won at a mile and one-eighth and the manner in which he did it suggests a mile and a quarter will be no problem. He is trained by one of the top conditioners in the country and is ridden by a veteran jockey. He was the 7/2 favorite in the Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Future Wager and is the 7/2 morning line choice in here. He worked very well in his final prep for the Derby, so his stock is still rising.
Negatives:
He is bucking two very strong trends: 1. Since 1882, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without first racing as a 2-year-old. 2. Since 1915, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby with fewer than four lifetime starts. There’s a reason those trends have held up over the years: It’s very difficult for a horse to race only three times and then go a mile and one-quarter against 20 top competitors. He didn’t get any breaks in the post position draw either. He probably will experience racing in traffic for the first time in his career.
Analysis:
If Curlin can win the Kentucky Derby off three prep races from the two-hole in a crowded, contentious field, more power to him. From this corner it appears he’s got a steep a hill to climb. Add to those challenges the fact that he will be either the first or second choice in the race and he becomes an automatic go-against proposition on the win end. If he takes the Derby feel free to bow down before him because he will have stamped himself as one of the most talented horses to come along in ages.
| 3. | ZANJERO | Bridgmohan | Asmussen | 30-1 |
Positives:
He has faced top competitors like Street Sense, Dominican, Circular Quay, Nobiz Like Shobiz and the highly regarded but injured Notional without disgracing himself. He has a steady, closing style that suggests he will be able to pick up some tired foes in the Churchill lane. He is trained by one of the nation’s top conditioners. Even though he has just 2 wins in 8 starts, he’s never far back at the finish. He has steadily improved this winter and seems to be approaching the Derby on the upswing. He has one win in as many starts at Churchill.
Negatives:
Zanjero looks like the proverbial sucker horse that always threatens to run a huge race but seldom does. The Kentucky Derby is a tough place to move forward when you haven’t been able to win a race since November. He had a perfect stalking trip in the Blue Grass but failed to kick it in down the lane and was passed by Dominican and Street Sense.
Analysis:
We had our money on him in the Blue Grass and were a bit disappointed that he didn’t win. Of course, that turned out to be funky race in which Zanjero, a confirmed closer, was sitting second early. He was stuck on the inside of the track, the worst place to be at Keeneland, and never could get outside. Expect the Derby pace to be more suitable to his style. We don’t think he can win the race, but he might clunk up for a piece of the super.
| 4. | STORM IN MAY | Leyva | Kaplan | 30-1 |
Positives:
He has won 4 of 13 starts including the Sunshine Millions Dash this winter at Gulfstream.
Negatives:
His trainer is 1 for 28 this year. Two of this horse’s four wins have come on the turf. His biggest win came in a six-furlong sprint race. He has just one race with a Beyer Speed Figure over 90.
Analysis:
There are too many hurdles for him to overcome. Handicappers must throw someone out. He might be a good place to start.
| 5. | IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY | Guidry | Kaplan | 50-1 |
Positives:
He has faced graded competition in his last three races and outfinished Zanjero in the trouble-filled Risen Star. He was also close to Zanjero in the Louisiana Derby, six lengths behind the winner Circular Quay. He broke awkwardly when 37-1 in the Florida Derby and was beaten just over six lengths by Scat Daddy.
Negatives:
He has faced many of the foes he will meet in the Derby and has not been able to outrun them for the top prize. He has 2 wins in 11 starts—a maiden score and an optional claiming non-winners of two.
Analysis:
It’s nearly impossible to imagine this horse winning the Derby. However, he has a steady, closing style that suggests he will probably be passing a few tired foes in the lane. Plus, with 11 career races, he is one of the most experienced runners in the race. He might be a good choice to include in the Super at 50-1.
| 6. | COWTOWN CAT | Jara | Pletcher | 20-1 |
Positives:
He’s on a roll. He has won 4 of 7 lifetime stars, including the Gotham at Aqueduct and the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne in his last two. Another of leading trainer Todd Pletchers ‘Derby Band of Brothers’ Cat seems to be peaking at the right time. He has a running style that suggests he will be forwardly-placed in the Derby.
Negatives:
He has not faced top-notch competition. His wins in the Gotham and Illinois Derby were solid, but he did not beat stellar fields in either event and the early pace in both of those races was much softer than it will be in the Kentucky Derby. Jockey John Velasquez, Pletcher’s main rider who has ridden ‘Cat in four of seven starts, elects to ride Circular Quay in the Derby. ‘Cat has not improved that much since his maiden win at Belmont in September and has never run a Beyer Speed figure over 98. It probably will take a Beyer figure in the 103 neighborhood to win the Derby.
Analysis:
He is improving right now and could earn a minor award. Make no mistake; he will need to do better than he has in the past, but his positive pattern suggest that’s not out of the question. Count him as a ‘reach’ play in here at best on the ‘win’ end, but a good horse to include in exotics at a large price.
| 7. | STREET SENSE | Borel | Nafzger | 4-1 |
Positives:
He is the 2-year-old Champ and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 10 lengths at Churchill Downs, no less. He has won 3 of 7 starts and has never been worse than third. He improved dramatically to win the Juvenile in November and has had two prep races to get ready for the Derby. He has posted the highest Beyer figure in the field—108 in the Juvenile—and he has a 102 Beyer to his credit. He has earned over $1.5 million. His last race was in the ‘funky’ Blue Grass, which he lost by a nose to Dominican. Even though the race shape did not suit his off-the-pace style, he was still right there at the finish despite drifting in a bit through the lane. He posted a great work at Churchill Downs the week before the Derby and followed that up with a nice maintenance breeze.
Negatives:
He enters the Derby off a nose defeat in the Blue Grass. In that race he spent some time ducking around in the stretch. That’s not the best behavior for a horse heading toward Churchill Downs and a crowd of 150,000 people. His closing style may be compromised in the large Derby field. He’ll have to get lucky to find a way through the pile.
Analysis:
In boxing you have to knock out the champ to wear the crown. It’s the same thing here. Street Sense doesn’t appear to be ready to abdicate the crown. He seems in good shape, loves Churchill Downs and is trained by a Derby-winning conditioner. From this chair, the Kentucky Derby winner has to go through Street Sense to get there.
| 8. | HARD SPUN | Pino | Jones | 15-1 |
Positives:
He has won 5 of 6 races, his only defeat coming over a track (Oaklawn) his connections say he didn’t like. He has a great cruising speed and figures to be just off the early Derby pace before unleashing his best kick. He is bred to handle the distance and hasn’t shown any inclination to fade in the latter stages of his races. He has been favored in every start except for his last, which he won while earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. Because of the deep competition in the Derby he will be a big price in the race.
Negatives:
He has not faced top competition. He will go into the Derby without having raced since March 24 and some wonder if that might be too long a layoff. His connections passed on competing in the Blue Grass, which originally was on his schedule. He worked in :57 3/5 for this race and that may have been too fast. It’s definitely not the type of work you want to see before the Kentucky Derby.
Analysis:
This horse was listed as our Value Play in XpressBet’s Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide for this race until he worked :57 3/5 at Churchill Downs on Monday of Derby Week. That type of work can decimate a horse going into the most challenging race of his life. It can also make him too keen to go fast early and that’s not usually a good thing when going a mile and one-quarter for the first time. Because we won’t know exactly how the work affects him, he probably still should be included in exotics, but it’s hard to imagine that work being a good thing for him.
| 9. | LIQUIDITY | Flores | O’Neill | 30-1 |
Positives:
He finished behind Stormello and the highly-regarded but injured Ravel in two races in California this winter. He races close to the pace and will not have to negotiate his way through a crowded field. His trainer won the Santa Anita training title this winter and is conditioner of the incomparable Lava Man. Liquidity has registered a 102 Beyer Speed Figure going a mile and one-eighth at Santa Anita. He has faced stakes competition--three Grade I appearances--exclusively since breaking his maiden first time out in September.
Negatives:
He has won only one race in seven starts. His regular jockey Corey Nakatani has elected to ride Great Hunter, one of O’Neill’s other horses in the Derby. He has raced four times with blinkers and could only manage a pair of seconds in those races. O’Neill horses do not tend to do their best outside of California.
Analysis:
Liquidity will have to perform much better than he ever has before to win the Derby or to be part of the exotics.
| 10. | TUEFLESBERG | Elliott | Sanders | 30-1 |
Positives:
He has more experience than any other Derby starter with 15 races. He is also tied with several other horses for the second-most wins in the race. Hard Spun and Scat Daddy have five wins each.
Negatives:
Amazingly, he has lost to Dominican, Curlin, Hard Spun, Street Sense, Great Hunter, Circular Quay, Zanjero and Scat Daddy, all of whom are in this race. Additionally, he has never won going further than one mile.
Analysis:
He has the wrong style for this race. He likes to set or force the early pace and that’s not the place to be in the Kentucky Derby, especially when you’ve previously been whipped by nearly half the field. This horse’s trainer has just 2 wins in 88 starts this year. Add it all up and we’re passing on this one.
| 11. | BWANA BULL | Castellano | Hollendorfer | 50-1 |
Positives:
He was a terror on the Northern California circuit with 4 wins in 8 starts near the Bay. He has a nice running style and won the California Derby and the El Camino Real at Golden Gate and Bay Meadows, respectively.
Negatives:
He was beaten over five lengths in the Santa Anita Derby where his closing punch wasn’t as effective. The trainer’s top rider Russell Baze, who rode this horse in five starts, is not riding anyone else in this race.
Analysis:
Despite this runners’ fine record, we’ll have to pass on him in the Derby.
| 12. | NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ | C. Velasquez | Tagg | 8-1 |
Positives:
He has won 4 of 6 races and has been one of the most consistent horses on the Triple Crown Trail this winter. He has faced top-notch competition, including two Grade I races, and never has been worse than third. Blinkers and ear plugs were added to his equipment last time out and he responded with a game performance to win the Wood. His trainer won the Derby with Funny Cide. Nobiz has won two of three starts at a mile and one-eighth.
Negatives:
Horses who need blinkers and ear plugs for their best usually find tough sledding at Churchill Downs on Derby Day. Although a consistent performer, he has not developed much this winter. He has never had a Beyer Speed Figure over 98. Scat Daddy holds a 2-1 advantage over him in head-to-head meetings. He has never raced at Churchill Downs. He had shown a tendency to lose concentration in the stretch before blinkers and ear plugs were added. He was pretty keen to go on early in the Wood and that style of running may not play well to a hot Derby pace.
Analysis:
He’s a tough horse to throw out of the exotics, but players are going to have to take a stand somewhere. The feeling in this corner is that he will have a difficult time winning this race. He has been solid, but unspectacular this season and it will take a spectacular effort to win this race. Will he step up and improve in the Derby? We guess ‘no,’ but he sure could hit the board in here.
| 13. | SAM P. | Dominguez | Pletcher | 20-1 |
Positives:
He is trained by the nation’s leading trainer Todd Pletcher, but that’s not unique in this field--Pletcher has five horses entered in the Derby. Sam P. has a win over the Churchill Downs surface. Blinkers were added in his last race—the Santa Anita Derby—where he was third to Tiago. He finished second to Great Hunter in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita.
Negatives:
With only 2 wins in 8 lifetime starts and coming off a very ordinary performance in the Santa Anita Derby, there is little to suggest that Sam P. is ready to win the Kentucky Derby. He did manage a lifetime top Beyer Speed Figure of 99 in the Lewis, but he’s only topped 90 three times in eight starts. The Derby figures to be won with a Beyer in the 105 range this year—the average is 108. He has not improved all that much this winter and failed as the lukewarm favorite in the Santa Anita Derby.
Analysis:
We can’t really get behind this one after that weak Santa Anita performance. Only 2 wins in 8 starts also is a negative. If you want to use him in exotic wagers, no one would call you crazy, but he’s not one of the ones from this vantage point.
| 14. | SCAT DADDY | Prado | Pletcher | 10-1 |
Positives:
He has won 5 of 8 starts against top-notch competition, including four Grade I races and two wins at that level. He has a pressing style of running which means he won’t have to negotiate through traffic to make his run at the pacesetters. He is ridden by one of the top jocks in the game Edgar Prado and is trained by the nation’s leading trainer Todd Pletcher. Prado won the Derby last year aboard Barbaro. His racing schedule this winter was not interrupted at any point and he won both of his races at one mile and one-eighth-- the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby.
Negatives:
As honest and as accomplished as this multiple Grade I winner is he has never earned a Beyer figure over 98. He has been beaten by Nobiz Like Shobiz, Street Sense, Circular Quay and Great Hunter—all running in this race---among others. Jockey John Velasquez, Pletcher’s main rider and the jockey for Scat Daddy in seven of his eight lifetime starts, is aboard Circular Quay for the Derby. Scat Daddy trained in bar shoes at Keeneland on Tuesday, but his trainer says he has trained in them for nearly a year.
Analysis:
It’s hard to ignore this one. He’s done about every thing he needs to do to get ready for this. Count him in the mix, somewhere, even though his previous effort at Churchill in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was not good.
| 15. | TIAGO | Smith | Shirreffs | 15-1 |
Positives:
Not only is the same jockey/trainer/owner combination that brought you Kentucky Derby upset winner Giacomo two years ago, but this colt has the same mother as Giacomo. In racing parlance that make him a half-brother (same sire, different dam) to the Derby winner. He is coming to hand at the right time with a sterling upset in the Santa Anita Derby when Shirreffs removed the blinkers. He is lightly raced and could have more improvement in him. He has won two of four lifetime starts and earned a 100 Beyer in his last outing.
Negatives:
His inexperience is a negative in a large field in front of a huge crowd. His Santa Anita Derby came over a suspect field of challengers that included second-place finisher King of the Roxy whose connections believe has distance limitations. One race before the Santa Anita Derby Tiago finished seventh, beaten over nine lengths. Was his remarkable turnaround in the Santa Anita a function of his improvement or the result of the rest of the field’s inability to get a mile and one-eighth in acceptable time?
Analysis:
Will lightning strike twice for the Giacomo crew? Not likely. But, it must be noted that Tiago did earn a 100 Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby and figures to be closing in the lane. He did appear to lug in a bit in his final work at Hollywood Park, and that has to be a concern in a large field.
| 16. | CIRCULAR QUAY | Velasquez | Pletcher | 8-1 |
Positives:
There are many positives in this one’s corner. He has won 4 of 7 lifetime starts and over $1 million. He has shown excellent development since his first start last June. He is trained by the nation’s leading trainer Todd Pletcher and ridden by one of the country’s top jocks John Velasquez—Pletcher’s main rider. He has faced top competition throughout his career. He has a late-running style in a field of pace-pressing foes. He has won 2 of 3 starts at Churchill.
Negatives:
He has not raced since March 10—an eight-week layoff. When Barbaro won last year’s Derby off a five-week layoff the experts were amazed. Circular Quay has never raced further than a mile and one-sixteenth; the Derby is a mile and one-quarter. Since his race in the Risen Star was compromised by severe trouble on the turn for home, he has actually had only one full race since November. Some would argue that one pre-Derby race in a 3-year-old season is just not enough of a foundation to win the Run for the Roses. His late-running style will be a detriment because he will have to weave his way through traffic.
Analysis:
Like many in this race he has talent and figures off some of his best races. However, his 8-week layoff is a real concern and the fact that he has had only one real prep race this year adds to his troubles. Don’t see this one overcoming those negatives. He’s one we’re liable to dismiss at less than double-digit odds.
| 17. | STORMELLO | Desormeaux | Currin | 30-1 |
Positives:
He has a world of speed and should find himself on or near the lead in the Derby. He has Grade I and Grade II wins to his credit already and has won 3of 9 lifetime starts. He has faced top competition this season.
Negatives:
He has been mismanaged this winter while racking up frequent flier miles from coast-to-coast trips in March. He runs hard, but doesn’t seem to want to go a mile and one-quarter at Derby speed. He is a fighter, but won’t be clear for long in the Derby. Too many pace-pressing types are signed up this year to permit Stormello to steal such a lucrative prize without a big fight.
Analysis:
He’ll be around for a while. Expect jockey Kent Desormeaux to take things as easy as possible early. If the rest of the field leaves him alone…nah, that can’t happen. Stormello is up against it any way you look at it.
| 18. | ANY GIVEN SATURDAY | Gomez | Pletcher | 12-1 |
Positives:
This is one of five Derby runners from the barn of America’s leading trainer Todd Pletcher. Any Given Saturday will be ridden by Garrett Gomez, one of the nation’s top jockeys. Those two pluses are difficult to ignore. Any Given Saturday has won three of six lifetime starts against mostly top-notch competition. He has run fast times and shown decent improvement since winning his maiden race at Turfway Park last September.
Negatives:
His last race was disappointing, although he was carried wide on both turns. Nobiz Like Shobiz won that race with a rail-skimming trip, but Any Given Saturday was unable to hold off the closing charge of Sightseeing in the lane and looked like he was laboring through the stretch. An effort like that will not be good enough to win the Derby.
Analysis:
All things considered, this one has to be regarded as a contender to win the Derby. Count him ‘in’ whatever you do. Look for jockey Gomez to have this one a bit further back in the early going. He should be able to make an early move that will put him into contention turning for home and that’s where you want to be when the real running starts.
| 19. | DOMINICAN | Bejarano | Miller | 20-1 |
Positives:
He has won both of his starts since having an un-descended testicle removed during the gelding process. Word from scouts is that the operation has immensely improved this one’s stride since he can now run without discomfort. He defeated 2-year-old Champ Street Sense in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland with a furious closing kick.
Negatives:
He has had only two prep races this year and all three of his lifetime wins have come over Polytrack, a synthetic racing surface. Churchill Downs has a traditional dirt surface and Dominican has finished fourth in an allowance race and third in a stakes race there. The Blue Grass was a ‘funky’ race whose outcome can be taken with a grain of salt. The field walked early and sprinted home and most of the field was in the photo for the win. Any Given Saturday and Zanjero, two entrants in the Derby have defeated him before, although Dominican did turn the tables on Zanjero in the Blue Grass. He has never earned a Beyer speed figure over 95.
Analysis:
There are two questions that need to be answered: Did the gelding of Dominican turn him into a different horse? And, if he is a different horse, is he now good enough to beat a tough field on a natural dirt surface? The guess from this corner is that he’s got his work cut out for him.
| 20. | GREAT HUNTER | Nakatani | O’Neill | 15-1 |
Positives:
He defeated Street Sense and Circular Quay in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland in October and won the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in March while earning a Beyer speed figure of 101. He has won over $750,000, most of it in Graded Stakes races including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when third to Street Sense and Circular Quay. He has a closing style and got plenty of experience by running in a 14-horse field in the BC Juvenile.
Negatives:
He has only had two prep races for this year’s Derby—the Lewis win and a disappointing effort in the Blue Grass. A repeat of the former effort makes him a fit in the Derby, but anything like that last outing will get him merely hot and dirty on Saturday. Runners trained by Doug O’Neill seem to do their best running in California. Great Hunter has more seconds than wins—4 to 3—and that’s not the pattern of a top horse.
Analysis:
If you are in a forgiving mood and you toss out the Blue Grass Stakes over PolyTrack, then you can use Great Hunter in this race. His pre-Blue Grass efforts were good and at that time he was improving like a good horse. Count him ‘in’ the exotic mix at an inflated price off his Blue Grass disappointment, if you don’t mind post position 20.
Kentucky Derby Selections
Key Horse and Most Likely Winner:
#7 Street Sense
Chance to Upset:
#14 Scat Daddy, #18 Any Given Saturday
Others Worth Attention:
#8 Hard Spun, #12 Nobiz Like Shobiz
Superfecta Gems:
#4 Zanjero, #5 Imawildandcrazyguy, #6 Cowtown Cat, #20 Great Hunter
Worth Trying to Beat:
#2 Curlin, #16 Circular Key