EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Hastings | today’s racesBet $100, Get $10 | Red Shores (harness) | today’s racesTOURNAMENT TIME$400 Los Alamitos Challenge | details$40 Los Alamitos feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $84,867| Churchill Downs | begins Race 4 | 2:13 pm ETMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $28,317 | Los Alamitos | begins Race 5 | 6:06 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY LOS ALAMITOS PICK 6 WINNERLos Alamitos | Race 9 | 8:08 pm ET | #6 A Clear Behest (27%)KEY RACESWoodbine | Race 6 | 3:57 pm ET | Zadracarta StakesAlbuquerque | Race 8 | 6:25 pm ET | Manzano StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXGulfstream Park | Race 2 | 1:21 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 4 | 2:13 pm ETBelmont at the Big A | Race 5 | 3:05 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHChad Brown | Belmont at the Big A | 6 of 7 entrants 7-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Parx | jockey Paco Lopez | 4 wins including 2 stakesPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Churchill Downs Sunday Spot PlaysFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)5-Alta Engen A (2-1)-This will be the 1st race for the Brian Tatham barn, and they are a smaller outfit that wins at a 38% clip off a claim. The 9-year-old only has raced at Nfld 12 times and comes off an even effort. Does have 3 wins and beat the $30k claimers here in July. Aaron Merriman gets the call, and he has 1 win in 2 drives for this trainer. Came back quickly in last, only 4 days between starts. Now returns in a typical rotation and should be out and rolling. Has a post edge on #6, the 9/5 choice and that could be the winning difference.Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)1-Winter Soldier (5/2)-Came a close 2nd against this kind then dropped and wired the NW8000 from the 7-hole. Is in sharp form, and AMac will have the 4-year-old racing at the top of the stack.2-Legacy Affair (3-1)-Has beaten this kind not long ago and will need to race to with the leaders to accomplish the same again. Justin Irvine should be no worse than in the pocket with this post draw and looks like a main player.8-Kildare King (4-1)-The Chris Beaver entry has hit the board in of 8 of 11 at Nfld with 2 wins and can beat this kind. Tried to go gate to wire in last, was used hard early on and faded down the lane. Now starts further outside, so wouldn't want a short price. But will use, because can take some air and should be a fair price.Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)3-Kate-N-Aidan (5/2)-There is a significant difference between NW2500 and NW1500. The 4-year-old now drops to the level where a picture could happen. Aaron Merriman takes the lines, and this will be "go" time.9-Casino Director (12-1)-Looking for a price and landed on a veteran that almost pulled off an upset from the 2nd tier back in June. Lost by a neck that night at a big number. Stayed inside, got an efficient trip, and passed a few down the lane. Looking for similar trip and faces a softer field.Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)1-Sizzling Sonata (6-1)-The 8-year-old is only 1 for 58 in the last 2 years but the lone win came 4 back at Nfld. Raced better in last to finish 3rd at 45-1. Won't be that large of a price but should offer a juicy return and will be closer to the top when the wings fold tonight.4-Hey Dude (5/2)-Has two second place finishes on its Nfld resume and comes back in sequence. Doesn't work here often, raced well last week, and is in good form. Got the pocket but was behind a longshot who quit at the top of the lane and that made things more difficult. Could get a smoother trip this time.6-South Bar Kevin (7/2)-Shipped in from Mea and had a good try from the 9-hole to cash a 4th place check. Draws better, Ronnie Wrenn sticks, and comes back in sequence. Should improve in the 2nd start on this oval.$1 Late Pick 46/1,2,8/3,9/1,4,6Total Bet=$18Check me out on Twitter!

After a Saturday of stakes action in Louisville, the second week of the September meeting at Churchill Downs concludes this afternoon with a 9-race card led by a pair of allowance events late in the day. Here are a trio of horses I like and will build my wagers around as part of what should be a fun Sunday at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.Race 4This MSW event for 2YOs at 1 1/16-miles over the Churchill lawn features a number of runners coming off starts at Kentucky Downs that make sense. This includes 7-2-ML favorite #2 Like Water for trainer Joe Sharp, 4-1-second choice #10 Very Connected for Kenny McPeek, and #5 Thesheriffisnear for Bill Mott. All have the experience edge over my play for big-name barns, but hopefully coming in fresh versus a run over the unique configuration in Franklin, KY proves valuable.#3 Good Willie debuts for trainer Norm Casse and Small Batch Thoroughbreds. The Hard Spun colt is out of a Birdstone mare that has produced a pair of six-figure earners, including Hard Legacy, a filly that won two starts going long on the turf to kick off her career. Good Willie is not only a full-brother to Hard Legacy, but is conditioned by the same barn. He comes in off a steady series of drills over the main track and draws favorably along the inside. Hopefully, he runs a lot like his big brother at first asking!Play: #3 Good Willie (8-1 ML)Race 7This high-level maiden claimer at the tricky 6.5-furlong distance over the main track kicks off the final Pick 3 of the weekend where I like the chances of #1 Arthur Jr. The son of Authentic has been knocking on the door this summer against protected maidens at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but has been unable to break through. This includes a pair of career best efforts in his two most recent starts. Last out, he got a great trip and ran a winning race, but ran into a good-looking first-time starter for the Larry Rivelli barn that went off at 6-5 and ran an 86 Beyer in victory. Arthur Jr returns to the Blue Grass, drops in for a tag for the first time, and attracts Luis Saez. Hopefully, Saez can get him to the front or work out a comfortable pocket trip in this gelding’s first start under the twin spires.Play: #1 Arthur Jr (4-1 ML)Race 8:There is not a lot of speed signed on in the Sunday feature at 6-furlongs over the main track, which could make #5 Hillerito tough to catch. The Army Mule mare began her career with 3 wins in 4 starts in Ohio and West Viriginia for former trainer Eric Reed and is quick early. She moved into the David Jacobson barn before her last start at Ellis Park and proceeded to earn a career best figure on all metrics when taking advantage of a favorable inside trip on the front end. She will take some catching in her first start at Churchill Downs, but I think #3 Sam’s Treasure has a good shot to run her down. The Munnings filly made 9 starts in the Wesley Ward barn, including an off the pace win over this track on June 5. After her victory, the 4YO filly was sold at the FTK Horses of Racing Age sale for $270k to Corser Thoroughbreds and trainer Paulo Lobo. Lobo has given his new acquisition time and she comes in off a strong series of drills at the Thoroughbred Training Center. If she can build off of her last start, she has a big shot to run them down once again.Play: #3 Sam’s Treasure (9-2 ML)

Northfield Park has a 15-race card. The $1.00 Pick 5 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 6 (7:50 PM EDT)1-Mystical View (5/2)-This will be the 4th race for the Betty Clegg barn and broke in one start at a Fair. Gets a ++ driver change in Aaron Merriman, which makes for a smaller price. Hoosier shipper has the speed to win but needs to mind its manner.4-Vendetta Blue Chip (3/2)-Short price chalk has a tactical advantage over others who are in the mix. Justine Irvine has gate speed to work with and should be no worse than in the pocket around the opening turn.Race 7 (8:12 PM EDT)1-Deep Satin (7/5)-Raced once at Nfld and lost by a nose. Has been facing tougher competition and should have her way with this field. Stands out but wasn't an automatic single because the pilot has only driven 83 times in the past 365 days and wins about as often as the seasons change. That said, from the rail this is a chance to break its maiden in a field full of those who don't like to win.Race 8 (8:34 PM EDT)8-Crimson Blue (4-1)-Fired hot off the bench to come a good 2nd. Now ships in from the Mea and makes its Nfld debut. Braiden Rhoades trains and steers and showed good speed in last. The only mare in the field could connect if gets a smooth trip.9-Newswriter (6-1)-This is the 3rd start in town and improved in the last race. The post helps the price and if Kody Massy can work an efficient trip this is a suck-around win candidate at a square price.Race 9 (8:56 PM EDT)2-Just A Pleasure (3-1)-Couldn't seal the deal in last but this is the level where a win could happen. That was the case 3 back, won off a 2-hole trip and could follow a similar plan here.3-Rocknstarletngray (3-1)-Logical player has been 1st of 2nd in the last 4 starts and can get a top of the stack trip tonight. Gets a positive driver change in Justin Irvine and should be a small price.4-Tomi Senorita (5-1)-Will use Merriman in this spot because if the top two are off their game he could challenge down the lane. This feels like a Rhoades-Merriman special, gets a form spike and a special trip.Race 10 (9:18 PM EDT)1-Hello In There (7/2)-Come off a big effort, hung the mile against this kind and finished a close 3rd leaving from post 6. Loses Ronnie Wrenn but draws the rail and Chris Lems can get the job done.5-Sarah Said (3-1)-Tried to go gate to wire in the 1st start in the Garry Martin barn but faded late to finish a close 4th. That was the 1st race in over 5 weeks here and could be sitting on big try tonight.9-Maggie Time (15-1)-The price is right to take a swing and will look for Tyler Angus to get away in a decent seat when the wings fold. Needs a trip but could pop at a big number if in play on the final turn.$1 Pick 51,4/1/8,9/2,3,4/1,5,9Total Bet=$36Check me out on Twitter!

EXTRA INCENTIVES15% Winnings Boost | Gulfstream Park | win bets today, up to $20Bet $100, Get $10 | Parx | today’s races$10 Money-Back Special | Woodbine Mohawk (harness) Races 8,9,10 | up to $10 back if win bet finishes 2nd,3rdTOURNAMENT TIME$500 Canterbury Closing Day NHC Qualifier | details$40 Los Alamitos feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $76,380 | Churchill Downs | begins Race 6 | 3:21 pm ETPick 6 | $123,916 | Belmont at the Big A | begins Race 6 | 3:38 pm ETMandatory Payout Pick 5 | $227,247 | Parx | begins Race 11 | 4:04 pm ETPick 5 | $240,923 | Belmont at the Big A | begins Race 7 | 4:10 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY AQUEDUCT PICK 6 WINNERBelmont at the Big A | Race 7 | 4:10 pm ET | #8 Brew Pub (20%)KEY RACESGulfstream Park | Race 3 | 1:52 pm ET | Aventura StakesBelmont at the Big A | Race 3 | 2:08 pm ET | Bongard StakesParx | Race 9 | 3:01 pm ET | Greenwood CupParx | Race 10 | 3:32 pm ET | Liberty Bell StakesLaurel | Race 8 | 3:45 pm ET | Weather Vane StakesChurchill Downs | Race 7 | 3:54 pm ET | Harrods Creek StakesParx | Race 11 | 4:04 pm ET | Parx Dirt MileChurchill Downs | Race 8 | 4:26 pm ET | Seneca StakesGulfstream Park | Race 8 | 4:30 pm ET | Bob Umphrey Turf SprintParx | Race 12 | 4:35 pm ET | Gallant Bob StakesBelmont at the Big A | Race 8 | 4:42 pm ET | Winter Memories StakesChurchill Downs | Race 9 | 4:58 pm ET | Dogwood StakesWoodbine | Race 9 | 5:06 pm ET | Durham CupParx | Race 13 | 5:15 pm ET | Cotillion StakesChurchill Downs | Race 10 | 5:29 pm ET | Bourbon Flight StakesGulfstream Park | Race 10 | 5:36 pm ET | Princess Rooney StakesParx | Race 14 | 6:00 pm ET | Pennsylvania DerbyGulfstream Park | Race 11 | 6:08 pm ET | Ginger Punch HandicapParx | Race 15 | 6:30 pm ET | Parx SprintLos Alamitos | Race 9 | 8:08 pm ET | Dark Mirage StakesCharles Town | Race 7 | 10:02 pm ET | Mercer Memorial StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXBelmont at the Big A | Race 10 | 5:45 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 11 | 6:01 pm ETCanterbury Park | Race 5 | 7:10 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHAnthony Farrior | Churchill, Laurel, Charles Town | all 7 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Belmont at the Big A, Meadowlands | jockey Christopher Elliott, 4 wins from 10 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMJeremy Plonk: Race of the Week – Pennsylvania Derby at ParxScott Shapiro: Parx Mandatory Payout Pick 5 AnalysisJeremy Plonk: Gulfstream 15% Winnings Boost Best BetsScott Shapiro: Churchill Downs Saturday Spot PlaysJohnny Burke: All My Plays | Sha Tin (Hong Kong)Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Well, I’ve blanked the first few cards in Hong Kong, so it can only go up from here, right? Let’s hope so! I went back to the drawing board on my model to make sure it wasn’t relying too heavily on things that aren’t as predictable as other factors. After careful review, and a trimming down of factors, I’ve settled somewhere that is producing much better results when back tested and relies less on pace figures that are difficult to reproduce. Let’s hope I didn’t treat it like a bad fantasy football team after a bad start and tinker with it too much just yet.Helpful ResourcesSha Tin – September 21HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, WeatherRace 1 | 1800M | Class 5Win – #2 GOLDEN FAIRYQuinella – 2 w/ 1,3,4Grade: ANotes: They say pace makes the race, right? Right! I believe my top choice is more than capable of going gate-to-wire from the inside post and pulling the upset to open the card. Two races back, this seven-year-old fired and led easily to a win at 2000 meters. The only other real pace concern is HAKKA RADIANCE who beat GOLDEN FAIRY to the first-call lead by a nose before they both faded. HAKKA RADIANCE and GOLDEN FAIRY both pick up new mounts here, with GOLDEN FAIRY getting Hewitson back up who rode him to victory two races back. HAKKA RADIANCE is going to have to fire from the eighth post and go around for a lead this time, and I’m planning on it being too much for him which should set up GOLDEN FAIRY with a smooth lead he can ride out for all nine furlongs.Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4 (All-Weather)Win – #1 CHARMING STEEDExacta – 1,3 w/ 1,3,9Grade: BNotes: Finally, some good ol’ fashioned all-weather surface racing. CHARMING STEED has the best recent record on this surface of the field winning three of eleven starts and finishing in the money in six of them. PRECISION GOAL also boasts a strong all-weather surface record, but looks like he’ll end up on the lead here which has not too well for him. I think he’ll have some pressure in this race from a better contender, CHARMING STEED, and I like my top choice to eventually make a move and find the wire first. Alongside CHARMING STEED, ALLCASH is dropping to Class 4 and picking up Zac Purton. That’s a dangerous combination to add to his noteworthy speed figures of late. PRECISION GOAL is still a worthy contender, but I’ll play him in the second spot of my exacta and go for a big price to win.Race 5 | 1600M | Class 4Win - #11 SPECIAL HEDGEGrade: ANotes: My model points towards SPECIAL HEDGE to find his first win going a mile at a lovely Morning Line of 11/1. Fitting, no? Horses projected as highly as this one does win roughly 72% of their races in my model’s testing. It might be tough to parse out on paper, but I’m going to trust my numbers on this one and take a swing on a Win bet. This jockey has ridden him to his best two starts out of the last five, and hopefully this is the time he figures out the trip from the second post to cash us a ticket.Race 7 | 1400M | Class 4Quinella – 5 w/ 4,7Grade: CNotes: I’m taking a shot at a big price finding a way to finish in the top-two and pairing him with the two most logical contenders in the race. ALL ROUND WINNER has been nothing of the sort, going 0-for-6 to start his Hong Kong career, but I’m playing a mix of raw speed figures and pace setup hoping things fall apart on the lead and make way for a late burst of speed. Not to mention, this horse has now had six starts and an offseason in Hong Kong and hopefully has acclimated to his surroundings ahead of his season debut. If we can get some pressure near the lead, we have a good chance of ALL ROUND WINNER crashing the board close to the Morning Line of 54/1 and making our Quinella a standout in the Xpressbet account history.Race 8 | 1650M | Class 3 (All-Weather)Win - #3 ARIELQuinella Box – 1,3,6Grade: ANotes: Britney Wong has had a strong start to the season, and I’m banking on her continuing to find success in this Class 3 bout on the all-weather track. They have her gelding, ARIEL, tabbed at 21/1 on the Morning Line, but I think that’s a huge underestimation. This seven-year-old has won three of eight starts on the all-weather track, including two races back on a sealed wet course where he snagged the lead at the second call and rode on to win under Wong. Also in the category of likely misprices is TURIN MASCOT, a son of CARVAGGIO that may not have the best record on the surface, but has run against a tougher crop in his last five starts. I like ARIEL most in the field, and will play to win, but a pair of other Morning Line prices have my eye and I’m willing to lay a few bucks on some combination of them to find the wire ahead of the rest of the field.Race 10 | 1200M | Class 3Quinella – 2 w/ 1,3Grade: ANotes: Running back a strategy of price with two favorites in the Quinella, I like NEW FUTURE FOLKS cutting back in distance here and think he has a legitimate shot at pulling the upset. My hesitation with an outright win play is some potential early pace from HAYDAY or LO PAN SPIRIT who could both end up wearing down NEW FUTURE FOLKS. If Teetan can find a way to navigate the race’s setup, I am confident that my 26/1 Morning Line top choice can make some noise. STORM RIDER will be guided by the ever-talented Zac Purton in this class drop, and should be sitting off the pace by a couple lengths before a big push down the stretch. LUCKY MY WAY is 2-for-4 in his young Hong Kong career and is getting the call up to Class 3. There’s still much to be seen from this gelding against a tougher field, but if he looks anything like he did at the end of last season he could be a serious contender as well.Good luck!

Gulfstream Park features the Aventura Stakes, Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint and Grade 3 Princess Rooney on a stuffed Saturday card. To add more sizzle, horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can earn a 15% Win Boost up to $20 in bonuses on that day’s Gulfstream card. With that in mind, I’ll spotlight the key win plays to attack.Gulfstream Park: Race 2 maiden claiming#2 Sweet Lazarus (5-1 morning line odds) has improved in all 4 starts since coming to Leon McKanas’ barn this summer. Drawn well in post 2 and should sit second or third with every chance to pounce. The little-known trainer has been on a roll since July 25 at 14: 5-3-0 and an ROI of $5.50 for every $1 bet (2-42 at Gulfstream prior in 2025). Win bet #2.Gulfstream Park: Race 8#6 Winfromwithin (6-1 morning line odds) has back class to draw upon and should be on full tilt while making his second start after a long layoff and cutting back in distance at the same time. Trainer Jose D’Angelo is 9: 4-0-2 in GP turf sprint stakes in 2024-’25 with winners paying $12, $21, $29 and $35 – a phenomenal $5.46 ROI for every $1 bet. He won with his only route-to-sprint cut-back during that time as well. Win bet #6.Gulfstream Park: Race 10 Grade 3 Princess Rooney Stakes#8 Claret Beret (3-1 morning line odds) gets a mulligan for a troubled start in the Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga and should be well-spotted here against easier competition and from a comfortable, far outside post over 7 furlongs. Dominated her only start over this track and anything close to her May and June performances can get the victory. Win bet #8.

The second of three Saturday cards at the Churchill Downs September meeting features four stake races headlined by the Dogwood (G3) for 3YO fillies. The 11-race slate is a strong one with a plethora of horizontal wagering opportunities for those so inclined. Here are a trio of horses I plan on building my Saturday in Louisville around.Race 5:This MSW event for 2YO fillies at two-turns drew a full field and appears to be relatively wide open. The two ML favorites exit the August 30 MSW at Kentucky Downs, but I prefer a filly coming in with a bit more rest from the “Pea Patch”. Helen Alexander homebred #3 Rain Gold was bet down to 5-2 on debut at Ellis Park on August 18 and ran a very strong third at this same one-mile distance. The More Than Ready filly was caught three-wide much of the way that afternoon in Henderson, yet still fought hard to the wire to miss by just half a length. Trainer Cherie DeVaux is off to a slow start to the meet, but is likely to start winning in bunches again before too long. This gal is bred to route on the lawn and has a big shot to earn her first win this weekend.Play: #3 Rain Gold (5-1 ML)Race 7: Harrods Creek#5 Smoken Wicked is listed as the deserving 8-5-ML favorite in this 7-furlong dash for 3YOs over the main track. The Louisiana-bred has tackled many of the best sprinters in the division throughout his 2025 campaign and has races that almost certainly handle this field. That said, I am slightly concerned that this is his fourth start of the form cycle and seventh since late February. He is the likeliest winner, but I prefer the upside and value of #3 Jimmy’s Dailys. The son of Vekoma showed promised down at Gulfstream Park this winter before going to the sidelines after being outrun in the Florida Derby (G1). Trainer Brian Lynch brought him back in the Ellis Park Derby on August 10. Not only was that race at the unique one-mile configuration against better competition outside of Smoken Wicked, but it was fellow Lynch trainee Big Truzz that was dominant in victory. Jimmy’s Dailys was able to grind a well-beaten second despite being last early and then moving up into a tight spot costing him a few early lengths. Now, he cuts back to a true one-turn race and appears poised for a big run with Jose Ortiz taking over riding duties.Play: #3 Jimmy’s Dailys (7-2 ML)Race 9: Dogwood (G3)The feature came up strong for a Grade 3 given the presence of #1 Echo Sound, #4 Ragtime, and #7 Delightful Claire. Echo Sound was made the 9-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker Mike Battaglia and no doubt brings the strongest resume in to this 7-furlong dash over the main track. The Rusty Arnold trainee has won 5 of 7, including a pair of Grade 3’s on the east coast earlier this year. She raced against the flow last out in the Test (G1), so her first career off the board performance is forgivable, but the rail draw is no bargain.I like Ragtime most. The Godolphin homebred was impressive winning her first two starts going away at the Spa before being run down late in the aforementioned Test last month. She had a favorable setup that day, but it was Kilwin making the final move to get the money. She gets some class relief here and the removal of blinkers for the first time suggests she is relaxing better in the mornings. A move forward of any kind and she should have no issue running this field down under regular rider Junior Alvarado.Play: #4 Ragtime (2-1 ML) *pictured*