The Lead:The mid-south's premier race for older horses, the $1.25 million Oaklawn Handicap, provides one of the season's final destination races of the winter-spring meeting in Hot Springs, Ark. The Grade 2 test over 1-1/8 miles goes as Race 11 on the card and the field of 8 includes the winners of the series' most-important preps, the Essex and the Razorback, as well as its defending champion.​Field Depth:Grade 2 winners include SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING, RED ROUTE ONE and FIRST MISSION. Also note DISARM, ALEXANDER HELIOS and BANISHING are Grade 3 winners, the first of those is Grade 1-placed. TARANTINO is multiple Grade 2-placed. The match up similar in terms of class though SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING has faced the strongest schedule over time.​​Pace:BANISHING may be fastest early in this group, but TARANTINO and ALEXANDER HELIOS will be right in the mix with SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING and FIRST MISSION not far from the tempo. This should be an above-average to fast pace and give late runners a reasonable chance if they fire.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.#1-GO WEST GO : Maiden claiming graduate is just 1-for-5 and clearly the overmatched, ranked outsider in this field for trainer Boyd Caster. Has sprinted in all 5 starts.#2-DISARM: Local allowance winner 5 weeks ago when coming off a September layoff, this consistent sort has been just shy of the upper levels in multiple previous chances. Excellent post and fast pace in front of him provides every opportunity.#3-FIRST MISSION : Ace stakes rider Flavien Prat takes the controls for the controls for the first time on the 2024 Essex winner and 2025 Razorback third-place finisher. Favored last out when by a neck in his first start since August and could build off that at a juicier price. Mixed results at this distance while 1-1/16 miles arguably his best.#4-SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING : Last year's Oaklawn Handicap winner has earned $3.2 million while being a well-placed road warrior throughout his career. As good as ever in winning a third straight Challenger Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs most recently which was his same springboard here in 2024. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over for injured pilot Tyler Gaffalione. Nearly all of his best efforts have come when he's first or second early in the race; so if you're going to beat him, several getting in front of him early -- which is possible here -- would be the gameplan.#5-ALEXANDER HELIOS : Dueling victory in the Grade 3 Razorback at 8-1 odds, he'll be the longer-priced of the Saffie Joseph Jr. entrants on Saturday alongside stablemate Skippylongstocking. Similar running style to the favorite and aggressive jockey Luis Saez probably won't take a back seat. Good record at the track and distance.#6-TARANTINO : Santa Anita-based colt has trained at Keeneland in recent weeks and could have run there Saturday for $350,000 in the Ben Ali. Confidence move making return trip to Oaklawn for $1.25 million after a troubled-trip second in the Essex. The $40,000 claim has gone 6: 2-3-1 since coming to trainer Peter Eurton but must deal with pace heat.#7-BANISHING : Nearly wired the Razorback in February before coming up a head short to Alexander Helios while holding off First Mission. His Oaklawn Mile return bid was sharp, dueling and outgaming the Grade 1 winner Saudi Crown while flashing far clear of everyone else. Flavien Prat rode both times prior, now jumps to First Mission, while speed jockey Ricardo Santana reclaims the mount. He twice won sprinting with Banshing earlier in the Oaklawn meeting. Pedigree says 9 furlongs will be fine, but he's going to be stretched with pressure. Just 2 heads away from 7 straight wins.#8-RED ROUTE ONE: Late-runner figures to take his place at the back and hope they cook early and often in front of him. Rallied strongly to win the Grade 3 Essex in one of the better performances of his career. He's had a problem repeating top efforts, going a paltry 5: 0-0-2 following his previous career victories. Gets his best distance at 9 furlongs.Most Certain Exotics Contender:DISARM is 14-15 in the superfecta lifetime and has a beautiful pace set-up.Best Longshot Exotics Contender:At 10-1 morning line, DISARM fills the bill here as well.Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$60 win DISARM. $10 exacta key-box DISARM with respected logical players SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING and FIRST MISSION ($20).

Wednesday’s Keeneland late pick 4 carries a 2 million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion when you play through 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. The sequence looks deep and challenging with field sizes of 12x8x12x11 and no obvious, free-space favorites. That’s good news for those looking for a healthy score, and who amongst us doesn’t want that?We took down Sunday’s late pick 4 in this space for $274 on a $16 ticket, so let’s double down to open the racing week in Lexington.Race 5#4 Dear Scarlett (30-1 morning line) and #3 Candy Mine (4-1 ML) drew advantageous posts in this turf sprint maiden race and are deep closers looking to make ground-saving rallies. I’m taking the bigger price on top, but will look for depth in this spot with #7 Izzy Sweet Girl (10-1 ML), whose sire has done really good work in Keeneland turf sprints, and #10 Magic Escapade (6-1 ML), a sharp-working rookie from a win-early barn and hot jockey in the saddle in Luis Saez.Race 6#8 Trust Issues (15-1 ML) is 5: 1-2-2 on fast dirt and hasn’t misfired, yet his record looks inconsistent due to several races on synthetic, turf or wet tracks. He’s reunited with Luis Saez, who rode him to a win and second-place finish in 2 prior pairings. Drawn nicely outside in modest field size for 6 furlongs. #6 Augusta Melody (3-1 ML) runs second-off-the-layoff after a notable fourth by 1 length at Fair Grounds behind Discreet Mischief, who returned to smash allowance foes here last week. Comfortable with this pair.Race 7This is another full-field turf sprint and it’s full of good allowance options. #4 Elegant (6-1 ML) transfers from the Bob Baffert barn and should bring California speed to Rudy Brisset and lures Flavien Prat from an advantageous draw. International export X-factors #2 Tales of the Heart (6-1 ML) and #3 Latin Fever (8-1 ML) arrive in Hall of Fame barns. #12 Big Trouble (9-2 ML) should be flying late down the center of the course under Jose Ortiz, while #9 Saturday Flirt (7-2 ML) was a course winner here as a 2-year-old for the always-dangerous turf sprint barn of Wesley Ward.Race 8#1 Princess Is Olivia has won 5 of her last 9 starts, including a 7-furlong claimer here during the Fall Meet when battling every step. She’s likely more effective at today’s 6-furlong trip and looks to go to 3-for-3 when teamed with Luis Saez, who could be poised for another big day. I’ll single here in the finale while fearing the late rally of #6 Sally’s Surprise, who would be the logical addition to the ticket for those faint of heart or who prefer to single in another spot in the sequence.The Ticket:4,7,10,3 with 8,6 with 4,2,3,12,9 with 1 = $20 for $.50

EXTRA INCENTIVES2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Keeneland late pick 4TOURNAMENT TIME$100 Keeneland Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot pick 5 | $519,195 Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $5,644 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 8 | 5:47 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY TAMPA BAY DOWNS WINNERTampa Bay Downs | Race 5 | 2:46 pm ET | #2 Kitty Hawk (28%)LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXKeeneland | Race 5 | 3:08 pm ETTampa Bay Downs | Race 7 | 3:50 pm ETHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 8 | 5:47 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHMichael Moore | Parx | 5 of 6 entrants 5-1 or less morning line oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Horseshoe Indianapolis | jockey Fernando de la Cruz | 3 wins, 1 second from 4 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMJeremy Plonk: Keeneland Late Pick 4 Analysis | Wednesday, April 16, 2025Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Wednesday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Set back that alarm if you’re on the East Coast or at least be sure to get your bets in before bed, because first post at Happy Valley is a ripe 6:40AM ET on Wednesday and we’re getting back to it!One thing to keep in mind with Hong Kong racing is the reliability of the morning line. Not only will the morning line prices change before the pools open to US bettors, but it’s not uncommon to see a double-digit line leave the gate at sub-2/1. My best advice is to handicap the races first, find your best plays, and then if you’re around when the markets open to adjust accordingly. Relying on the morning lines listed on your ADW to influence your decision is often a losing battle.Helpful ResourcesBreaking into a new racing circuit can be a challenge, but the Hong Kong Jockey Club sits at the middle of this poker table dealing free past performances, pace projections, and ample resources for players new to the scene. Download the program and check out their detailed explanation of how to read their past performances.Here are some helpful links to get started:Happy Valley – April 16Past Performances Speed Pro Pace Projections MethodologyPower ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further.Race 1 | 1000 Meters (5 Furlongs) | Class 5 | 6:40AM ETKey: #8 URBAN TRIUMPH (21/1 ML)We open Wednesday’s card with a five-furlong straightaway sprint for Hong Kong’s lowest class rating above Griffin (aka two-year-old first-time starters). My ratings have the top choice as #6 MODEST GENTLEMAN (6/1 ML) followed by #7 RAGNARR (3/1 ML), and rounding out the top three is our key for this race.#8 URBAN TRIUMPH (21/1 ML) is having a rough go of things as of late. The five-year-old gelding is dropping back to Class 5 to try again in a new barn. Granted, the new barn is hitting at a much lower clip (8.63%-win rate to new barn’s 3%), but my ratings have this horse far outperforming the results of his last five races. Michael Chang is going to race this horse at five furlongs for the first time in his career and he gets a favorable middle-pack post in this all-out sprint.Understanding we’re not choosing the outright most likely winner, we’re going to key our pick with two others who are better on paper and more likely to win, but also more likely to go off at a short price. The Exacta and Quinella pools in Hong Kong are often massive and lay the path for some big payouts if you can get a big price on your ticket. The aim here is either the new barn gets this horse looking right and he springs the upset, or he overperforms and finds his way up for second place. Both should pad the bankroll for the rest of the day.Betting StrategyExacta Key Box – 8 w/ 6,7//Race 2 | 2200 Meters (1 3/8 Miles) | Class 4 | 7:10AM ETKey: #2 SERANGOON (21/1 ML)Do I think this horse is going off anywhere close to 21/1? No. Do I think there are others who are more likely to take a lot of public money? Yes.Our top pick, #2 SERANGOON (21/1 ML), is my top-rated choice in the power ratings with a morning line that’s too intriguing to pass up. He’s returning to this four-turn course and going back to 1 3/18 miles where he’s 5-1-1-1 in his career. His last two starts were against a quicker pace than he’s used to at shorter distances than he has had success in. Stretching back out against a field that should move much more modestly, I like his chances to repeat his winning performance from February 26th.I’m going to use this gelding in combination with the power rating’s fourth choice, #6 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT (11/1 ML) who gets Hong Kong’s top mount, Zac Purton (24.14% win rate). ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT is adding an extra furlong after coming up 1-1/4 lengths short at ten furlongs and closing. In just his fifth start in Hong Kong, he gets a massive improvement in the irons and looks primed to take advantage of this longer distance. Whether he ends up finding the winner’s circle, or falling just short, we want this horse on our ticket when we leave the window.Betting StrategyExacta Box – 2,6Win/Place - #2 SERANGOON (at odds of 10/1 or better)

EXTRA INCENTIVES1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Parx late pick 4SCHEDULE NOTEHorseshoe Indianapolis | opening day of 2025 season | first post 2:10 pm ETNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot pick 5 | $469,337 Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY HORSESHOE INDY WINNERHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 3 | 3:12 pm ET | #6 Slam Dunk Justice (32%)KEY RACESWill Rogers Downs | Race 8 | 5:30 pm ET | Highland Ice StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXParx | Race 10 | 4:47 pm ETHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 8 | 5:47 pm ETTurf Paradise | Race 8 | 7:21 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHMiguel Rodriguez | Parx | all 4 entrants 9-2 or less morning line oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Parx | jockey Paco Lopez | 1 win, 3 seconds from 5 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Tuesday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Week 3 of the Keeneland Spring Meet runs Wednesday through Saturday with no racing on Easter Sunday. But the Good Friday card includes a strong edition of the Grade 3 $350,000 Doubledogdare Stakes – named for the 1955 Alcibiades and 1956 Spinster Stakes winner. Kentucky Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Distaff alumnae are among the cast that includes an Eclipse Award winner as well.Let’s meet the contenders for the Doubledogdare (Race 11):#1-JUST F Y I: The 2023 Champion 2-Year-Old Filly makes the second start of her 4-year-old season and welcomes jockey Junior Alvarado back from a recent shoulder injury. The daughter of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify was runner-up in last year’s Grade 1 Ashland over this track prior to her same result in the Kentucky Oaks. She fired a bullet workout Saturday at Payson Park before trainer Bill Mott sent her north.#2-GIN GIN: The Brendan Walsh barn has been firing strong to start the Keeneland Spring Meet and looks to continue its ways with this recent transfer from Brad Cox. Gin Gin won Aqueduct’s Busanda last year before being outrun 12th in the Kentucky Oaks. Her lone start since was a disappointing fifth of six in a Fair Grounds allowance in January in her final start for Cox. Jose Ortiz, who won this race in 2019, rides for the first time.#3-NEON ICON: A Keeneland maiden and allowance winner during her two Spring and Fall appearances last year, this Arrogate filly returns to her favorite surface so far. Rusty Arnold gets Luis Saez back aboard following a disappointing mid-February effort while wintering in Florda. She’s 5: 0-0-0 in stakes and 3: 3-0-0 when the black type has not been involved.#4-DREAMING OF MO: Turf and synthetic specialist has alternated wins and losses in her last 4 starts. Trainer Dale Romans puts Corey Lanerie back aboard and he notably rode her to victory in her only prior dirt start, a Churchill off-the-turf allowance last October. Uncle Mo mare exits a third-place effort in Turfway’s Wintergreen Stakes.#5-TARIFA: Last year’s Rachel Alexandra, Fair Grounds Oaks and Mother Goose winner had a productive sophomore season that saw her earn more than $800,000. She wintered at Payson Park in Florida, but ventured to Santa Anita for the Grade 1 Beholder Mile in her only start this year, a third-place finish. She’s now Grade 1-placed at ages 3 and 4 for trainer Brad Cox, who turns the reins over to Florent Geroux. That duo won this race in 2021 with Bonny South.#6-CANDIED: Trainer Todd Pletcher’s 5 victories in the Doubledogdare are a stakes record, most recently with Malathaat in 2022. Candied has a strong local history, winning the 2023 Grade 1 Alcibiades and finishing third last fall at age 3 in the Grade 1 Spinster. This will be her first start since a third-place run in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar. Irad Ortiz Jr. rode her for the first time in the Distaff and returns to the saddle.#7-OCCULT: Chad Brown and Flavien Prat eye back-to-back wins in this race when they team with Occult. Last year it was Raging Sea, who not only provided victory, but gave Prat two in a row after he guided Bill Mott’s Frost Point the year prior. A Prat three-peat would be a first by any rider in this race, which inaugurated in 1992. Occult was a 13-1 runner-up in October’s Grade 1 Spinster in her only local attempt and followed that with another second at Aqueduct in December’s Grade 3 Go For Wand. This will be the first start of the year for the Into Mischief 5-year-old.

Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race card to begin the week. The $1.00 Pick 5 rolls in Race 5 and has a $20,000 guaranteed pool. The $2.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 9 (9:25 PM EST)2-Shazam Blue Chip (5/2)-This is a suspect bunch when racing at this classification. The Engblom entry may have the best potential for winning at this level. Tonight, draws well to get on the engine and Jason Bartlett is between the pipes. Plus, it has raced on an off-track from post 7 in the last 2 starts, and its wet track record is 1-28.Race 10 (9:45 PM EST)4-Howlenthehills (9/2)-Was in the deep water in its 4-year-debut. Gets post relief and faces some his own age and is in a more comfortable spot to cash the top check.7-Heza Charttopper A (2-1)-Winner of the 3 straight is dangerous to leave off the ticket even with an outside post draw. Doesn't need to land on the point off the gate to win. Does have enough gate speed to get a close-up seat and be the best down the lane.Race 11 (10:05 PM EST)1-The Ideal Dancer A (5/2)-Recent form has been dull. Now drops to the level of its last 2 wins which came back-to-back leaving from the rail. This is a logical play but can't fully trust.3-Quality Bud (8-1)-Price shot raced on an-off track in the last 2 start and wet track record is only 3-42. Will take a swing in a contest without a true standout. Brent Holland could be stalking close to the leaders down the lane and use one nice move to roll by.6-Rock Diamonds N (3-1)-Has been cashing checks and should have a good chance of landing on the point. George Brennan will be out and rolling when the wings fold. Chances for a win go way up if on the lead at the top of stretch.Race 12 (10:25 PM EST)4-Ultimaroca (7/2)-Going with 2 horses that step-up after winning their last start. This Gillis trainee went gate to wire at even money last week. Scott Zeron worked that trip and could look to do the same here.6-Whats Stanley Got A (9/2)-The veteran is off to a slow start this year. But last time left from post 8 and landed in the pocket. That trip turned into its 1st win on an-off track. The 10-year-old has only 6 starts on a wet surface. Might be up to facing better, gets post relief and should offer a square price.$2.00 Late Pick 42/4,7/1,3,6/4,6Total Bet=$24Check me out on Twitter!

EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Woodbine Mohawk | today’s racingNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot pick 5 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY PARX WINNERParx | Race 3 | 1:34 pm ET | #6 Book Runner (32%)KEY RACESWill Rogers Downs | Race 8 | 5:30 om ET | Wilma Mankiller StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXWill Rogers Downs | Race 7 | 5:00 pm ETParx | Race 9 | 5:20 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHEsteban Padilla | Parx | 4 of 5 entrants 5-1 or less morning line oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | sire Into Mischief | 3 wins (Keeneland, Hawthorne, Oaklawn) from 6 startersPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Monday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section