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7.15.2024:

Saratoga Scouting Report: July 17-21, 2024

Key Races Wednesday | G1 Smithwick Memorial (steeplechase) Thursday | New York Stallion Stakes (NY-bred turf mile) Friday | Curlin Stakes (3yo dirt route) Saturday | G1 Coaching Club American Oaks (3yo dirt fillies), G3 Lake George (3yo turf fillies) Sunday | G2 Shuvee (elder dirt fillies/mares) Horsepower Wednesday | G3 WL McKnight winner Abaan (R1 G1 Smithwick steeplechase); G1 Gamely runner-up Olivia Maralda (R5 allowance) Friday | unbeaten Unmatched Wisdom vs. Sir Barton winner Corporate Power (R3 Curlin) Saturday: G1 Pegasus World Cup winner Atone vs. G2 Pilgrim winner Major Dude (R9 allowance); Wild Applause winner Oversubscribed (R10 Lake George); G1 Kentucky Oaks & Acorn winner Thorpedo Anna vs. G1 Ashland winner Leslie’s Rose (R11 Coaching Club American Oaks) Sunday: G3 Doubledogdare winner Raging See (probable for G2 Shuvee, entries drawn Wed) Extra Incentives Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar Tracking the Trends -- Favorites won 35% opening week, going 15-for-43. -- Four trainers won 3 races opening week, ranked by fewest starters to get there: Cherie DeVaux (6), Mark Casse (11), Bill Mott (13), Chad Brown (20). Other notable training feat: Al Stall Jr. was 3: 2-1-0. -- Todd Pletcher trainees were just 1-for-6 as favorites on the week. -- Flavien Prat topped all jockeys opening week in both wins (7) and win percentage (27). -- 21 of 43 winners last week exited races on the NYRA circuit; 14 came via Churchill final starts, 3 first-time starters and single winners via Keeneland, Gulfstream, Oaklawn Delaware Park and Finger Lakes.

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7.15.2024:

Del Mar Scouting Report: July 20-21, 2024

Key Races Saturday | G2 San Clemente (3yo turf fillies), Oceanside (3yo turf mile) Sunday | Osunitas (turf mile), Wickerr (turf mile) Horsepower Saturday: undefeated multiple stakes winner Medoro (probable for San Clemente, entries drawn Wed); King of Gosford, 3-for-3 since arriving in US (probable for Oceanside, entries drawn Wed). Sunday: Fran’s Valentine winner Stay and Scam (probable for Osunitas, entries drawn Thu); G2 City of Hope Mile runner-up Astronomer (probable for Wickerr, entries drawn Thu). Extra Incentives Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar Tracking the Trends -- Favorites won just 9 of 32 (28%) during opening week of the ’23 Del Mar summer meet. -- Fast-starting trainers during the ’23 Del Mar summer opening week were Doug O’Neill (7 wins, 24%), Bob Baffert (4 wins, 36%, Phil D’Amato (4 wins, 17%) and Leonard Powell (3 wins, 43%). O’Neill was also a fast starter during the ’22 Del Mar summer opening week. -- Top opening-week jockeys during the ’23 Del Mar summer were Umberto Rispolo (5 wins, 23%), Juan Hernadez (4 wins, 24%) and Hector Berrios (4 wins, 19%). -- 15 of 32 opening week winners at the ’23 Del Mar summer meet last raced at Santa Anita; 5 first-time starters won; no other circuit delivered more than 3 winners. -- 16 of 32 winners at the ’23 Del Mar summer opening week exited layoffs of 6 weeks (42 days) or more – including 3 who had not competed in more than 300 days.

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7.15.2024:

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis | Monday, July 15, 2024

Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card with the 0.50 Pick 5 starting in Race 5, and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 6 (8:40 PM EST) 2-Ultimaroca (3-1)-Stormed home with a 54.4 back half to roll by 5 foes and take a picture. Jordan Stratton is back in between the pipes and will respect chances of doubling up. 3-Cadiallac Bayama (10-1)-Beat this kind on 6-10 and then took a big step up and has cashed only 1 small check in 3 races. Drops and has missed a start which may not hurt chances. This is the level of the last win and could wake-up at a solid price. 6-Pound For Pound (8-1)-The 5-year-old has won 7 of 25 here but is 0-3 since being claimed by the Laterza barn after beating up on $75k claimers. Brent Holland has gate speed to use, could get the top or land in the pocket behind Ultimaroca, and if so should be right there at a price. Race 7 (9:00 PM EST) 6-Shine A Light (2-1)-Was idle for a month, since coming off the bench has a 2nd place finish and has taken a picture. Went gate to wire and beat this kind on 7-8. Should be a better price than 1/5 leaving from the 6 hole, and the same result appears likely. Race 8 (9:20 PM EST) 3-Big Gulp (5-1)-Battled Invitational company and has hit the board in 3 of 4 races. Now drops to the level of its last win and will use and hope the 5-1 ML price holds up. 4-Backstreet Shadow (5/2)-Similar to the one above as drops back to the level of its last win 2 back. Willing to respect chances and could cash the top check if Holland can provide a sharp steer. 6-Covered Bridge (4-1)-Stayed inside versus Invitational company. Drops, so Stratton could time the gate, send the veteran, and land on the point. Could go gate to wire with a fast start. Race 9 (9:40 PM EST) 2-Laz (6-1)-This 4-year-old may not be on many tickets. But will look for some value and has done good work on the Hilltop hitting the board in 13 of 24 with 5 pictures. Comes back in sequence, had the 8-hole in last and makes its 3rd start for the Daguet barn. Stratton should have the 4-year-old in reach of the leader rounding the last turn. 3-Take A Closer Look (2-1)-Had been facing $40k claimers in the last 2 since being claimed by the Travis Alexander barn. Top call driver Matt Kakaley grabs the lines and he has had success steering the 4-yr-old who likes Yonkers winning 7 of 16 races. 1.00 Pick 4 2,3,6/6/3,4,6/2,3 Total Bet=$18 Check me out on Twitter!

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7.15.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Monday, July 15, 2024

EXTRA INCENTIVES 1 Million 1/ST Wager Rewards Points Hit & Split | Ellis Park | Late Pick 4 20% Exacta Winnings Boost | Assiniboia Downs | all races NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Jackpot Pick 5 | $70,094 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ET Jackpot Pick 5 | $93,930 | Prairie Meadows | begins Race 6 |7:08 pm ET Jackpot Pick 5 | $310,808 | Assiniboia Downs | begins Race 3 | 9:25 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY ELLIS PARK WINNER Ellis Park | Race 7 | 3:50 pm ET | #6 Rocky Joy (28%) KEY RACES Finger Lakes | Race 5 | 2:56 pm ET | New York Oaks Finger Lakes | Race 7 | 3:54 pm ET | New York Derby Assiniboia Downs | Race 5 | 10:15 pm ET | Derby Trial Stakes Assiniboia Downs | Race 6 | 10:40 pm ET | Jack Hardy Stakes LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Ellis Park | Race 5 | 2:53 pm ET Parx | Race 10 | 4:47 pm ET Presque Isle Downs | Race 8 | 6:09 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Ed Clouston | Mountaineer | 5 of 6 entrants 5-1 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Gulfstream Park | jockey Leonel Reyes | 3 wins, 1 third from 8 mounts PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Monday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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7.14.2024:

Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Saratoga | Sunday, July 14, 2024

______________________________________________________________________________ Saratoga First Race – Post: 1:10 ET. Degree of confidence: B Top Selection: 4-Silver Circle (6-1). Other Contenders: 8-La Cara; 1-Kimchi Cat. Forecast: Low percentage connections notwithstanding, the second time starter Silver Circle might be worth a small gamble in the Sunday lid-lifter for maiden juvenile fillies. A reasonable runner-up last month at the Big A in her debut behind the talented Complexion (subsequently unplaced in the Schuylerville Stakes after throwing a fit in the gate), the daughter of Munnings was beaten more than six lengths but was nearly six lengths clear of the others while earning a solid figure. She has every right to improve with that bit of experience behind her and is probably better than her morning line of 6-1 gives her credit for. Kimchi Cat and La Cara are quicker but if they hook up early the race could set up for a closer or a stalker and that’s where we anticipate Silver Circle will find herself in the early going. ______________________________________________________________________________ Saratoga Third Race – Post: 2:18 ET. Degree of confidence: B Top Selection: 6-Twisted Filigree (9/2). Other Contenders: 7-Final Denile. Forecast: We haven’t seen Twisted Filigree on video in the morning, but the work tab looks sharp and should have him fit and ready in his first start in more than a year and just his third overall. The New York-bred son of Distorted Humor was an excellent runner-up in his debut last summer and then graduated at a short price before being stopped on, so if he returns as well as he left in his first start since being gelded he certainly should fit quite well in this first-level allowance abbreviated turf affair. The G. Weaver barn has superior stats with the layoff angle and the jockey knows him well. We’ll also toss in Final Denile, second at this level at the Big A last month while showing rising numbers in each of his three starts. The C. Clement-trained gelding lacks tactical speed but can turn it on late, and with some help up front should be heard from close home. ______________________________________________________________________________ Saratoga Fifth Race – Post 3:27 ET. Degree of confidence: B+ Top Selection: 3-Itza Mirrakle. Other Contenders: 1-Military Road. Forecast: Normally we’d much prefer the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle rather that backing a runner with just one short on his resume, but Itza Mirrakle is being sent long after a strong runner-up debut try over seven furlongs to a next out winner and may be able to get away with it. In that race, he was out-footed early but commenced his rally wide on the turn and stayed on gamely through the lane while grinding away before running out of room in race that earned a strong speed figure. The son of Arrogate has the pedigree to improve a bunch at this mile and one-eighth trip in a race that projects to have enough pace to compliment his late running style. Additionally, the stable has good stats with second time starters, so it all adds up to a play at or near his morning line of 4-1, ______________________________________________________________________________

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7.14.2024:

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, July 14, 2024

Northfield Park begins the week with a 16-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout. The sequence starts in Race 11, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 11 (9:40 PM EST) 5-Greatest Ending (8/5)-Does have big gate speed and could get the top when the wings fold or duck and make a quarter move. Either way AMac could control the mile early enough to steal a quarter. If that happens the 5-year-old should be difficult to tackle. 7-Unlikeanyother (9-1)-Shipped in from Scioto and had an even effort starting from post 9. Will look for Billy Davis Jr. to get a decent early seat, then grind it out and roll by down the lane at a nice price. Race 12 (10:02 PM EST) 1-Mo Bay (3-1)-Found Open company too tough and now drops to a level where the 5-year-old can make some noise. Doesn't have great gate speed but Hunter Myers should be racing near the top and be in striking range turning for the wire. 4-Gabbys Bit Coin (5/2)-Posted a win as an odds choice at ScD. Has only raced 5 times this year and was idle throughout 2023. Posted 2 wins in 5 races at Nfld winning over $101,000 on that oval. Faces better but could be up to the challenge after taking a picture on 7-4. 7-Stoney Ridgetop (12-1)-Willing to take a swing as form is sharp and has very good gate speed. If Ken Holiday gets the top without burning much gas the 5-year-old could pop at long odds. Has done well at Nfld (12-3-5-2). Race 13 (10:24 PM EST) 2-Camouflage Money (6-1)-Drops to a more competitive level and should have a nice seat off the gate. Could be in the hunt with a sharp steer from Chris Lems. 3-Joelsyy Hanover (5-1)-On and off sort can be a factor with the right set-up and Kurt Sugg could work a cozy trip. Has one good move to use and might pop at a square price. 5-Roll With Time (4-1)-Posted a win 2 back at Nfld and then went to the Meadows, faced better, and finished 2nd. Should fit with this group but needs a top effort to notch a win. The Presto-Merriman combo has posted 25% winners. Will respect the connections and hope the morning line price holds up. Race 14 (10:46 PM EST) 5-Herecomescharlie B (6-1)-Comes off a sharp win leaving from post 7 and making 2-moves. Billy Davis JR is in the bike again and now faces Open company. Has been close to winning at this level and has good gate speed to be in position to seal the deal tonight. 9-Joggingtothebank (3-1)-The rail horse has some gate speed and could be a player if Merriman can get a close-up seat into the opening turn. This veteran knows how to win and has the pilot to put him into position for that to happen. $1.00 Late Pick 4 5,7/1,4,7/2,3,5/5,9 Total Bet=$36 Check me out on Twitter!

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7.14.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Sunday, July 14, 2024

EXTRA INCENTIVES $10 Money-Back Special | Saratoga Races 3 and 7 today | up to $10 back if win bet finishes 2nd, 3rd 1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Saratoga | Late Pick 4 TOURNAMENT TIME $40 Monmouth Park Feeder | details NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Jackpot Pick 6 | $289,308 | Monmouth | begins Race 5 | 2:45 pm ET Jackpot Pick 6 | $96,483 | Gulfstream Park| begins Race 5 | 3:07 pm ET Jackpot Pick 5 | $82,213 | Prairie Meadows | begins Race 7 | 7:33 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY LAUREL STAKES WINNER Laurel Park | Race 7 | 3:38 pm ET | #4 Forever Souper (31%) KEY RACES Monmouth Park | Race 5 | 2:05 pm ET | My Frenchman Stakes Laurel | Race 5 | 2:40 pm ET | Jameela Stakes | MJC PicksLaurel | Race 7 | 3:38 pm ET | Prince George’s County Stakes | MJC PicksLaurel | Race 8 | 4:08 pm ET | Ben’s Cat Stakes | MJC PicksWoodbine | Race 8 | 4:49 pm ET | Victoria Stakes Saratoga | Race 9 | 5:45 pm ET | Quick Call Stakes Emerald Downs | Race 7 | 8:20 pm ET | Kent Stakes LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Gulfstream Park | Race 6 | 3:40 pm ET Woodbine | Race 10 | 5:55 pm ET Saratoga | Race 10 | 6:19 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Saffie Joseph Jr. | Gulfstream Park | all 7 entrants 4-1 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Gulfstream Park | jockey Emisael Jaramillo | 3 wins, 4 seconds, 1 third from 10 mounts PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Sunday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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7.13.2024:

Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Saratoga | Saturday, July 13, 2024

______________________________________________________________________________ Saratoga Fifth Race – Post: 2:46 ET. Degree of confidence: B+ Top Selection: 3-Rebel Red (GB). Other Contenders: 1a-Unit Economics. Forecast: The lightly raced and rapidly developing Rebel Red (GB) was given an easy run in his U.S at Keeneland in April, finishing on his own courage to split the 12-runner field without ever becoming involved before galloping out with a ton left. He got serious in his next start in a maiden affair at Churchill Downs, where the son of Frankel produce an electric turn of foot to graduate going away by more than a length, with the runner-up finishing seven clear of the rest. Additionally, he accomplished the win despite taking the worst of the slow early, very fast late race shape. The C. DeVaux-trained 4-year-old has recorded two easy recent breezes to tick him over and his comfortable three-hole post that should allow for a cozy second flight, ground-saving trip. At 5-1 on the morning line he’ll offer good value in the win pool and in the various exotics. It must be noted that Unit Economics (GB) sports a similar pattern and is actually a bit faster on numbers, hence his 6/5 morning line status. Clearly, he’s the one our top pick must worry about the most. ______________________________________________________________________________ Saratoga Seventh Race – Post: 3:54 ET. Degree of confidence: B+ Top Selection: 6-Sam’s Rocket. Other Contenders: 1-Tough Catch. Forecast: Most of the best offspring of American Pharoah have been fillies but here’s a first-time starting juvenile colt that appears to have real ability. Sam’s Rocket looked spectacular breezing a furlong in :10 flat (never really asked) at the OBS April sale before bringing $925,000 through the ring, and since joining the W. Mott barn he has put together a steady and healthy series of drills that should have him fit and ready for a major effort first time out. Out of a precocious race mare who won her debut by nearly seven lengths (and then won her second start by six), this well-balanced, athletic colt with smooth action hasn’t been asked for his top ability (no need to) in the morning but can be counted on to make a very favorable first impression in this competitive straight maiden sprint. He’s listed at 5-1 on the morning line and is worth an enthusiastic gamble at or near that price. For those preferring some protection, consider Tough Catch on your ticket, at least as a backup. From the first crop of the hot fast sprinter Complexity, this D. Stewart-trained colt, like our top pick, was clocked in :10 flat at that same OBS auction and since has been burning up the track in a.m. drills at Churchill Downs. If he leaves with his field from the disadvantageous rail post position, the $280,000 purchase should have a strong say in the matter. ______________________________________________________________________________ Saratoga Eighth Race – Post 4:29 ET. Degree of confidence: B+ Top Selection: 2-Point Clear. Other Contenders: 10-Hurricane Nelson. Forecast: Point Clear tipped his hand with an excellent runner-up performance in his debut in a maiden race at Churchill Downs last month, settling for second money due to severe trouble leaving the gate. The son of Malibu Moon stumbled badly and fell far back, wasn’t asked for much until the head of the lane, then picked it up enthusiastically when chirped to and finished full of run before galloping out impressively. The rail post is no help but with that bit of experience behind him and with an extra furlong to work with, the J. Ortiz-trained sophomore looks primed to graduate. At a playable 5-1 on the morning line and with three easy breezes since raced to keep him on edge, this talented sophomore has much in his favor. His main competition comes from the comebacking Hurricane Nation, stakes placed last fall during his 2-year-old campaign and with speed figures that are extremely fast for this level. The work tab looks good, and if the son of Khozan returns at least as well as he left, the C. Clement-trained colt should be hard to handle.

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