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5.1.2024:

Race of the Week: Turf Classic at Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 4, 2024

The Lead: The traditional Kentucky Derby lead-in, Churchill Downs' Turf Classic, has been the perfect preliminary since the great Manila christened the race in 1987. From Lure and Paradise Creek to Wise Dan, some of the most memorable grass horses have used this massive stage to show off their ability. It's Race 11 of 14 on the program and part of a two-day Pick 3 that includes the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby as bookends. Horseplayers on the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on 10 key stakes races Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs, including the Turf Classic and Kentucky Derby, if your win bet finishes second or third. There's also a $50,000 Exacta-Thon promotion split $25,000 each over those two days of racing. ​Field Depth: FAR BRIDGE and PROGRAM TRADING are existing Grade 1 winners. INTEGRATION, I'M VERY BUSY, WEBSLINGER and NAVAL POWER are all Grade 2 winners who also are Grade 1-placed. NEVER SURPRISED is also Grade 1-placed. Pace: NEVER SURPRISED should have no problem controlling the front as potential lone speed. Who sits in the pressing flight is less clear, though INTEGRATION, CELLIST and PROGRAM TRADING are candidates who could benefit from what looks like a mild tempo. Deep closers could be disadvantaged. Our Eyes: Here are my horse-by-horse notes. #1-INTEGRATION: Star 3YO failed to deliver in his pair of starts since facing elders, but chased a very fast pace in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup when an even fifth, and then shortened up to a trip too sharp for him in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile. The softer tempo expected here and 9F distance could bring out his best. Shug McGaughey won this race with the great Lure, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione piloted '22 winner Santin. #2-ANGLOPHILE: Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Derby winner takes on the toughest field of his career while trying to nix a 4-race losing streak. Mid-pack style benefits from positive post position and jockey John Velazquez found glory in this race in 2014 with Wise Dan, though this would be a much bigger surprise. Prefer others. #3-CELLIST: Won the 12F Louisville over this course in 2022 and comes off an eye-catching win at Turfway in the Kentucky Cup Classic. He's as good as he's ever been at age 6, drawn very well and could be sitting just off the speed with a great trip under Luis Saez. Maybe not as brilliant on turf as some of these over 9F, but he's Mr. Right Now. #4-FAR BRIDGE: Allowance winner at Gulfstream in his only '24 outing, trainer Christophe Clement looks to add to this one's Grade 1 Belmont Derby credentials in a good form cycle spot. Jose Ortiz has been a good fit on the English Channel colt, and note he was responsible for Yoshida's winning trip in this race in 2018. #5-PROGRAM TRADING: Trainer Chad Brown looks for a record fourth Turf Classic win with the first of 2 entrants (he'll also send out I'm Very Busy). Unbeaten in 5 starts but for a runner-up to Integration in the Virginia Derby at Colonial in September. The Grade 1 Hollywood Derby winner takes on older stakes horses for the first time and makes his first start i more than 5 months. Should sit a great trip in the first half of the field. #6-I'M VERY BUSY: Rallying runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup Turf to the since-retired star mare Warm Heart, he had a breakthrough performance last out in the Mervin Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds. Overcame post 13 in New Orleans with an eye-catching, wide move off the far turn. Pace won't be to his favor, but trainer Brown is a 3-time winner of this race as is jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., including 2 of the last 3 years. #7-WEBSLINGER: Consistent closer delivers his run from the absolute tail of the field and could be compromised here by a lack of heated pace. Won the American Turf over Derby weekend a year ago among a 2-2 local grass record. Javier Castellano has to keep him closer Saturday if he's to win his third Turf Classic. #8-NEVER SURPRISED: Could be a big 90 minutes for Repole Stable and trainer Todd Pletcher with this front-running threat and Fierceness poised next in Kentucky Derby 150. Pletcher has won this race 3 times, including 2 of the last 3 years. Consistent colt is 10-12 in the exacta and takes them as far as he can under Florent Geroux, an excellent turf speed rider in a new pairing. Irad Ortiz Jr. jumps to ride I'm Very Busy. Distance question as he'll extend beyond to optimum trip. #9-NEVER EXPLAIN: Late-running winner of the Tampa Bay Stakes most recently, he won last year's Dinner Party on the Preakness undercard and can recall some of that big-crowd experience in the Derby Day melee. Likely to take back under patient rider Joel Rosario, but some of his better efforts have been from a closer-up perch. The latter might serve him better in this race shape. #10-SIEGE OF BOSTON: Gulfstream and Laurel allowance winner has dropped 5 straight decisions and has given himself too much to do in 3 straight stakes rallies that came up just short. Takes his course with him witnessed by those efforts in Churchill's River City, the Tampa Bay Stakes and GP's Canadian Turf. Steps up in class and doesn't get a preferable pace scenario in front of him. #11-NAVAL POWER: Morning line favorite will vie for the public sentiment with I'm Very Busy. Sharp second in the Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland behind Charlie Appleby / Godolphin stablemate Master of the Seas, the reigning Breeders' Cup Mile winner. Post will do him no favors, but veteran Frankie Dettori will put him in the best position he can muster for a colt whose 8: 6-1-0 record speaks for itself. Second-off-the-plane sometimes can be a regression for international runners who remain stateside. Most Certain Exotics Contender: I'M VERY BUSY is 8-9 in the superfecta lifetime and razor-sharp right now. Even if the pace doesn't help his late run, expect him to be flying late for a share. Best Longshot Exotics Contender: The soft early pace scenario puts 10-1 morning line proposition NEVER SURPRISED in a great spot to last for a share and threaten a heist. ​ Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $12 trifecta part-wheel INTEGRATION, I'M VERY BUSY, NAVAL POWER with NEVER SURPRISED with INTEGRATION, I'M VERY BUSY, NAVAL POWER ($72). $28 daily double INTEGRATION to FIERCENESS in Kentucky Derby 150.

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5.1.2024:

Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Churchill Downs | Kentucky Oaks Friday, May 3, 2024

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. * The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. * * Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 1: Post: 10:30 ET Grade: B- Main Ticket: 6-Thoughtful; 3-Penny Royal; 4-Sundance Feature. Backups/savers: 7-Rock Harbor. Forecast: We’re largely guessing here – there are no video workouts to critique or analyze – but we do know that trainer B. Cox has a terrific record with first time starters, so the Gun Runner filly Thoughtful is a “must use” and a logical top pick. There’s nothing fancy on the work tab but a sneaky quick gate work (:47 3/5b, April 7, 4th fastest of 75) and a half mile blowout :47 2/5 April 28, 6th fastest of 60) indicate at least some ability. Penny Royal likewise has done some good work in the a.m. and should be considered. The S. Asmussen-trained daughter of Curlin probably isn’t a quick type (surmised based on pedigree) but at this extended sprint distance she might come running late. Sundance Feature had a promising run over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park in late March that produced a decent number and on paper looks best of the known element. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 2: Post: 11:00 ET Grade: B- Main Ticket: 9-Sidamara; 10-Standoutsensation Backups/savers: 7-Befriended; 11-Sedona. Forecast: Sidamara was a pleasing second time starting, first time routing winner last month at Keeneland in a race that already has proven to be productive, and as a daughter of Arrogate should continue to improve with experience and maturity. Two nice breezes since raced add to a healthy pattern for the W. Mott-trained filly, so let’s try this Juddmonte homebred right back at or near her morning line at 4-1. Standoutsensation is faster on numbers than our top pick, considerably more experienced, and is a “must use” at 5-1 on the morning. She was overmatched when fifth in the Ashland S.-G1 last month but certainly shouldn’t be in this spot. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 3: Post: 11:30 ET Grade: A- Main Ticket: 8-Arthur’s Ride Backups/savers:5-Injunction; 11-Empty Tomb. Forecast: Arthur’s Ride returned off a 13 month layoff in mid-March to crush a first level allowance field at Gulfstream Park with a triple digit (101) Beyer figure while looking very much like a future star. He’s produced a faster number every time he’s been led over, so he’s apparently on his way to bigger and better things. He’s listed at 3-1 on the morning line but we’d have to expect he’ll go considerably lower. We’ll use a couple of backups (listed above) just in case in bounces, but we’re not anticipating that he will based on his six week breather in between races and a healthy, steady, and easy work tab in the interim for W. Mott. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 4: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B Main Ticket: 3-Elysian Field; 11-Freydis the Red (FR) Backups/savers: 4-Myriskyaffair. Forecast: Elysian Field may have been a tad rusty when runner-up in her comeback at Gulfstream Park in early March but with that race behind her the talented Canadian filly should be primed for a major effort in this nine furlong turf affair for second level allowance runners. Winless in four starts on grass (but second three times), the M. Casse trained daughter of Hard Spun won the Woodbine Oaks last year before being nosed out in the King’s Plate and then missing by a whisker in the Breeders’ S. (on turf), so there should be no doubting her class. Freydis the Red (FR) was no factor in her comeback at Fair Grounds in a tougher spot but, like our top pick, seems likely to step forward against this softer competition. She was a stakes winner and stakes placed during her sophomore campaign and has numbers that put her in the thick of things. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 5: Post: 12:43 ET Grade: A- Main Ticket: 4-Idomatic Backups/savers: 5-Pretty Mischievous. Forecast: Champion Idiomatic returns for trainer B. Cox (32% with layoffs) and has trained well enough to be fit and ready for this year’s edition of the La Troienne S.-G1. Winner of the BC Distaff-G1 when last seen in November and successful in eight of nine starts in 2023, the daughter of Curlin, by all rights, should be just as good if not better during her five year old season. At 6/5 on the morning line, she won’t offer any wagering value but for those seeking a short-priced rolling exotic single she’s a logical candidate. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 6: Post: 1:26 ET Grade: A- Main Ticket:2-Ova Charged Backups/savers: 8-Ag Bullet. Forecast: Ova Charged earned a 113 Beyer speed figure when destroying her outclassed foes in a state bred stakes on turf at Fair Grounds in late March – that’s a number that would win most Breeders’ Cup grass sprints – so if she can repeat that type of effort in this year’s edition of the Unbridled Sydney S.-G3 she’ll be home free right back. A winner of 12 of 15 career starts (with one second and no thirds), the daughter of Star Guitar is quick enough to make the lead but has won from well off the pace as well, so new ridder F. Geroux has the luxury of finding a spot and picking his strategy. She’s listed at 7/2 on the morning like. Nice. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 7: Post: 2:09 ET Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 3-First Mission; 6-Tumbarumba. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: First Mission regained his winning form with an easy five length romp in the Essex H.-G3 at Oaklawn Park last month and seems well placed for a repeat in this year’s edition of the Alysheba S.-G2. Nosed out in the Clark S.-G2 in his only prior run over the Churchill Downs main track, the B. Cox-trained colt catches a projected race flow that appears favorable and should be able to draft into a comfortable stalking position and have every chance from there. Tumbarumba is genuine, consistent, and solid on numbers. A. two-time winner over the local main track, the Oscar Performer gelding has a similar stalking style to our top pick and will be right there with his best effort. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 8: Post: 3:03 ET Grade: B Main ticket: 6-Surprisingly; 5-Mouffy. Backups/savers: 4-Heavenly Sunday. Forecast: Surprisingly was a tad unlucky in her last pair, missing by a neck in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf and then going down by a half-length despite lacking a clear run in the Orchid S.-G2, both at Gulfstream Park. First or second in nine of 13 career starts, the daughter of Tapit switches to F. Prat and should be capable – with good racing luck - of producing a winning late kick. Mouffy fired her best shot when a strong second to the loose-on-the-lead Ruby Nell in the Buena Vista S.-G2 at Santa Anita in early March. She’s a tad shy in the speed figure department compared to our top pick but is thoroughly genuine and consistent and has the style to enjoy this nine furlong distance. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 9: Post: 4:04 ET Grade: A Main ticket: 7-Denim and Pearls. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Denim and Pearls ran away and hid from her rivals on the way to a nine length romp in the Beaumont S.-G2 at Keeneland last month, doing so with complete authority and career top speed figure. Unbeaten in three one-turn outings, she gets ideal conditions once again in this seven furlong dash for sophomore fillies, especially considering that there is no breakaway speed in the field. The B. Cox-trained daughter of Into Mischief projects to enjoy a cozy stalking trip – just like last time – and then go on with it when given her cue. Have to think she’ll go considerably lower than her 3-1 morning line. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 10: Post: 4:51 ET Grade: B+ Main ticket: 9-Hard to Justify Backups/savers: 4-Buchu. Forecast: Hard to Justify has looked terrific in the a.m. for C. Brown, so we’re expecting the undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 winner to pick up where she left off. The daughter of Justify had to overcome the 12-post in a 14-runner field at Santa Anita to bravely get the money with a career top number, and if she returns as well as she left – as we suspect she will – she’ll keep keep her perfect record spotless. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 11: Post: 5:51 PT Grade: A- Main ticket: 13-Just F Y I. Backups/savers: 14-Leslie’s Rose. Forecast: Just F Y I was given an easy run in the Ashland S.-G1 in her seasonable debut at Keeneland last month and today will get serious. According to her breezes since that race, the 2023 champion juvenile filly had stepped forward big time and appears ready to produce her best effort, similar to the one that netted her the BC Juvenile Fillies-G1 last fall that was accomplished despite the extreme outside 12-post. She’s produced a forward move in every race according to the numbers and we’re expecting to see a career top mark today. There’s excellent gambling value available at or near her morning line of 9/2. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 12: Post: 6:27 ET Grade: B Main ticket: 11-Almost Rocket Gone; 7-Tweetster; 8-Twirling Good Time. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Almost Gone Rocket was 30 cents on the dollar April 5 in her debut at Oaklawn Park and ran like it, pressing the pace outside in hand before opening up at will without being asked to register a nearly 12 length score. It’s hard to gauge how good she is so at this time we’ll settle for “very.” Tweetster also was a sharp debut winner, her victory likewise achieved in Hot Springs despite a slow start from the rail. Numbers-wise, she’s close to our top pick, though she’s probably not as quick as ‘Rocket. Twirling Good Time was yet another smart debut winner – her score was accomplished over the local track last September – but in her first race back she was tried over a distance of ground facing allowance types and she simply wasn’t ready for that, pressing the pace and then dropping away at the head of the lane. She’ll be tighter today and is back around one corner, so the daughter of Twirling Candy could easily bounce back with a big effort. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 13: Post: 7:02 ET Grade: B+ Main ticket: 8-Princess Madison Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Princess Madison took a career’s worth of dirt in her debut when forced to race in a pocket until mid-stretch before finally getting clear and rallying with interest to be second in a promising debut last month at Keeneland. The daughter of Speightstown has the style that seems perfect for this one turn mile, is the fastest filly in the field based on numbers and looks well-placed to graduate. We’re expecting to see her in the first flight throughout and then exert her superiority late as a win play and rolling exotic single.

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5.1.2024:

Scott Shapiro: Kentucky Oaks-Turf Classic-Kentucky Derby Pick 3

Kentucky Derby weekend is great for so many reasons. Not only do we get to see the best of the best throw it down for two days, but we get to gamble on it as well! The wagering menu available on both Oaks and Derby Day is fantastic. Horseplayers have a plethora of options on both Friday and Saturday and then also have the opportunity of attacking two-day wagers that end with the 150th “Run for the Roses.” One of those is the two-day Pick 3, which has a 50-cent minimum and handled over $625K a year ago. The wager kicks off with the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and then features the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon. Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play. Kentucky Oaks: Grade: B- Main Ticket: 13 Just F Y I; 8 Tarifa Backups: 11 Ways and Means; 5 Thorpedo Anna Forecast: I wish I was more creative in what has turned out to be really fun edition of the “Run for the Lilies”, but the top tier appears to stand out quite a bit from the rest of the group in 2024. I had a difficult time separating #8 Tarifa and #13 Just F YI, but in the end, I went with the two-year-old champion. The Justify filly’s return race in the Ashland was a great starting point where she was caught wide much of the way, but still finished second. She appears to be training extremely well leading up to her second start off the bench and maybe will offer slightly better value than Tarifa. That said, Tarifa merits major respect as well. The Godolphin filly rattled off three consecutive wins this winter in New Orleans and retains the services of one of the best big race riders in the game, Flavien Prat. #11 Ways and Means and #5 Thorpedo Anna also make a ton of sense and have a lot of talent, but I have slight concerns about them handling more ground. Turf Classic: Grade: B- Main Ticket: 6 I’m Very Busy Backups: 5 Program Trading Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown won this race in 2019 with Bricks and Mortar, in 2020 with Digital Age, and dead heated in 2021 when Domestic Spending threw it down big with Colonel Liam. Brown holds an extremely strong hand again in 2024 with #5 Program Trading and #6 I’m Very Busy. I prefer I’m Very Busy who has gotten very good as a four-year-old. The Cloud Computing colt just missed in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Turf at Gulfstream before crushing the group assembled at Fair Grounds in the Muniz Memorial. He once again lures Irad Ortiz, Jr and will be my key horse in this 9-furlong affair over the sod. #5 Program Trading has a big shot as well though. Being entered in this spot in his first try against older runners off a 6-month break tells you how highly regarded this Klaravich Stables ridgling is. He should get the jump on his stablemate in search of his fifth win in six lifetime tries. Kentucky Derby: Grade: B Main Ticket: 8 Just a Touch, 2 Sierra Leone Backups: 17 Fierceness, 4 Catching Freedom, 6 Just Steel Forecast: The Blue Grass Stakes has not proven to be a live prep for the Derby in some time, but that still feels random to me, at least over the last few years. I am not going to let that trend bother me in 2024. #8 Just a Touch is lightly raced and has only competed over a fast main track at two turns once in his career, but he has done little wrong and still has a ton of upside. Assuming a clean break, he should get a perfect pressing trip under Florent Geroux and should have no issue getting the added ground. I am hopeful he can turn the tables on Sierra Leone, who has been a model of consistency thus far for Chad Brown. The pricey Gun Runner colt has three wins in four tries, with the lone defeat coming by a nose in the mud to Dornoch in the Remsen (G2). It will take the ride of Tyler Gaffalione’s life from down inside to rally past perhaps the entire field, but this horse is classy and he can certainly finish. #17 Fierceness is the kind of horse I usually try to beat in the Derby. He has been awesome in his wins, but his inconsistency and inability to handle adversity are tough to overlook at a short price in a 20-horse field. I will only use him on tickets where I am keying in on prices in other horizontal legs. #4 Catching Freedom is the other Cox. He can definitely handle the distance, but under what scenario does he get the race shape he wants and out finishes Sierra Leone? #6 Just Steel is a big reach on top, but outside of his Rebel effort where he was caught wide, has been extremely consistent. He is a definite use underneath at a big price and perhaps worth including in horizontal spreads. Good luck this weekend!

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5.1.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Wednesday, May 1, 2024

EXTRA INCENTIVES Bet $100, Get $10 | Churchill Downs | today April $20K Sweepstakes | win up to a $1,000 betting voucher TOURNAMENT TIME $40 Churchill Downs Feeder | details 1/ST KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER GUIDE Free Access + Daily Updates  SCHEDULE NOTES Preakness Future Wager Pool 2 | open through May 4 | Meet the Contenders  NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Super Hi 5 | $5,511 | Churchill Downs | Race 1 | 12:45 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY CHURCHILL DOWNS WINNER Churchill Downs | Race 2 | 1:15 pm ET | #8 Charlie Tolu (29%) KEY RACES Churchill Downs | Race 8 | 4:19 pm ET | Isaac Murphy Marathon LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Tampa Bay Downs | Race 6 | 3:00 pm ET Churchill Downs | Race 6 | 3:16 pm ET Evangeline Downs | Race 1 | 6:30 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Gerald Bennett | Tampa Bay Downs | 5 of 6 entrants 5-1 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Turf Paradise | jackpot pick 6 hit for $708,534 on single ticket PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Wednesday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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4.30.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Tuesday, April 30, 2024

EXTRA INCENTIVES Bet $100, Get $10 | Churchill Downs | today 10X Tuesday Wager Rewards Points | whichever track you bet the most money on today April $20K Sweepstakes | win up to a $1,000 betting voucher TOURNAMENT TIME $40 Churchill Downs Feeder | details 1/ST KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER GUIDE Free Access + Daily Updates  SCHEDULE NOTES Preakness Future Wager Pool 2 | open through May 4 | Meet the Contenders  NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Super Hi 5 | $12,158 | Churchill Downs | Race 3 | 1:43 pm ET Jackpot Pick 6 | $631,010 | Turf Paradise | begins Race 4 | 5:55 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY CHURCHILL DOWNS WINNER Churchill Downs | Race 1 | 12:45 pm ET | #1 Dreamster (28%) LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Churchill Downs | Race 5 | 2:45 pm ET Parx | Race 8 | 3:53 pm ET Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 5 | 4:14 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Jose Silva | Turf Paradise | 5 of 6 entrants 5-1 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Parx | trainer Jacinto Solis | 2 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds from 5 starters Yesterday | Turf Paradise | favorites won 6 of 8 Thoroughbred races PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Tuesday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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4.29.2024:

Meet the Contenders: $1,500,000 Kentucky Oaks | Friday, May 3, 2024

The 150th running of the Kentucky Oaks, the fillies for the lilies, highlight’s the Friday action at Churchill Downs on the eve of the Kentucky Derby. It’s a record purse of $1.5 million for the Oaks, which has a capacity field of 14 over 1-1/8 miles. Horseplayers on the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can enjoy a $25,000 Exacta-Thon promotion on Friday’s Churchill card as well as up to a $10 money-back special if win bets finish second or third in select stakes races, including the Oaks. Let’s meet the contenders for the Kentucky Oaks (Race 11): #1-TAPIT JENALLIE: Veteran of Oaklawn’s 4-stakes series, running top-5 in each, including a third-place finish behind Thorpedo Anna in the Grade 2 Fantasy. Debuted a winner at Remington Park in September and added her only stakes win in Delta’s My Trust Cat in November. From the same female family as Take Charge Lady, runner-up in the ’02 Oaks. Daughter of Tapit, who sired 2014 Oaks winner Untapable. #2-GIN GIN: Jockey Florent Geroux and trainer Brad Cox have won the Oaks twice, both in tandem (Monomoy Girl ’18, Shedaresthedevil ’20). Gin Gin won the Busanda in January and a Churchill maiden sprint last September, but more recently was third in both the Busher and Gazelle while wintering in New York. Historic Calumet Farm’s 6 Kentucky Oaks wins span 1943-’79 under previous ownership. #3-WHERE’S MY RING: Santa Anita-based filly looks for her second win of the road trip, having won the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct in early April. She had been a 7-race maiden prior to that score, yet still was bet to 5-2 favoritism. Eighth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies over her home track vs. Just F Y I et al. Brings 67-year-old trainer Val Brinkerhoff to the big stage in search of his first Grade 1 victory from more than 1,700 starts since 2008. #4-REGULATORY RISK: Lone victory in 5 starts was a wire-to-wire, 1-turn mile at Aqueduct in a December maiden race. Earned her ticket here with a runner-up in the Grade 3 Gazelle at 19-2 odds behind Where’s My Ring. Jockey Jose Ortiz won the 2019 Oaks aboard Serengeti Empress. Trainer Chad Brown seeks his first Kentucky Oaks victory. #5-THORPEDO ANNA: Dominant winner of Oaklawn’s Fantasy Stakes by 4 lengths despite drawing post 10 of 10 in her only start of 2024. Won 2 of 3 as a juvenile, finishing second in Churchill’s Golden God as the odds-on favorite. Bargain $40,000 purchase has bagged nearly $600,000 to date. Trainer Kenny McPeek seeks his first Kentucky Oaks victory. #6-LEMON MUFFIN: Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is a 5-time Oaks winner, most recently Secret Oath in 2022, and tied with the late Woody Stephens for most all-time. Lemon Muffin won Oaklawn’s Grade 3 Honeybee while still a 5-race maiden, but just didn’t show up when seventh in the Grade 2 Fantasy follow-up. Partners with 25-year-old jockey Keith Asmussen, who will also pilot Just Steel for Lukas in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. #7-FIONA’S MAGIC: Speedster failed to stretch out in trip from her 1-turn success when 8th in the Gulfstream Park Oaks last time out. Previously wired the field in the Grade 2 Davona Dale at trainer Michael Yates’ Gulfstream base. Jockey Luis Saez piloted 2022 Oaks winner Secret Oath. Expect her to factor early in the pace. #8-TARIFA (pictured): Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks winner has won 4 of 5 starts and 3 straight coming into the race and is the expected betting favorite. Pedigree loaded with stamina by Preakness winner Bernardini and with damsire Awesome Again a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner over the Churchill track. Owner Godolphin secured last year’s Oaks trophy with the Brendan Walsh-trained Pretty Mischievous. Trainer Brad Cox has won the Oaks twice (Monomoy Girl ’18, Shedaresthedevil ’20). #9-EVERLAND: Upset winner of Turfway’s Bourbonette Oaks has yet to race on dirt through 7 starts (6 straight on synthetic since a turf debut). Claimed for $30,000 in December, she’ll try to replicate the late-running style and back history of 2022 Kentucky Derby shocker Rich Strike. Sire Arrogate was responsible for 2022 Oaks winner Secret Oath. #10-INTO CHAMPAGNE: Sire Into Mischief was responsible for last year’s Oaks winner Pretty Mishievous. Two-time sprint winner in Kentucky and Florida exits a third-place finish in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in her first start around 2 turns. Expected part of the early pace with jockey Julien Leparoux in search of his first Kentucky Oaks win. #11-WAYS AND MEANS: Jockey Tyler Gaffalione seeks to become the first rider with back-to-back Oaks victories since legendary Eddie Arcaro won 3 straight from 1951-’53. Trainer Chad Brown seeks his first Kentucky Oaks victory. Gulfstream Park Oaks runner-up had a rough trip in her only start of 2024, coming up a length short at 1-2 odds. Also runner-up in last year’s Spinaway at Saratoga as an odds-on chalk for trainer Chad Brown. This jockey-trainer tandem pairs with Sierra Leone in Derby 150. #12-POWER SQUEEZE: Hottest filly in this year’s Oaks, she brings a 4-race winning streak to Louisville. Tampa-based jockey Daniel Centeno picked up the mount in winning the Suncoast Stakes, kept it through their 11-1 upset in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and sticks Friday for trainer Jorge Delgado. Possesses late-running style and owns a trio of wins around 2 turns. #13-JUST F Y I: Can become the first Champion 2-Year-Old Filly to win the Kentucky Oaks since Silverbulletday in 1998-‘99. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott looks to add the Oaks to his resume for the first time while playing catch-up on the calendar with this filly. Missed her seasonal debut at Gulfstream with a fever, but returned with a promising second in Keeneland’s Ashland. Best known for her Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies victory at Santa Anita. Daughter of 2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown winner Justify. #14-LESLIE’S ROSE: 9-1 upset winner of the Ashland at Keeneland, rebounding from an odds-on defeat in Gulfstream’s Davona Dale, her only loss in 4 starts. Trainer Todd Pletcher seeks a record-tying fifth Oaks win, joining D. Wayne Lukas and Woody Stephens. He won this race in ’04, ’07, ’13 and ’21, most recent with Malathaat. Sire Into Mischief was responsible for last year’s Oaks winner Pretty Mishievous. #15 (also eligible)-OUR PRETTY WOMAN: Runner-up in the Fair Grounds Oaks could follow that same final prep and result as last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous. Steve Asmussen has a pair of Kentucky Oaks wins to his credit (’05 Summer, ’14 Untapable). Front-runner adds legitimate pace presence if she were to draw into the field. #16 (also eligible)-CANDIED: Beaten favorite when fourth in the Ashland at Keeneland, her only start of 2024. That kept her on the outside looking in on the Kentucky Oaks qualifying points chase. Narrow third to Just F Y I in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and won the Alcibades prior. Trainer Todd Pletcher seeks a record-tying fifth Oaks win, joining D. Wayne Lukas and Woody Stephens. He won this race in ’04, ’07, ’13 and ’21, most recent with Malathaat.

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4.29.2024:

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis | Monday, April 29, 2024

Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card with the 0.50 Pick 5 rolling in Race 5, and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 6 (8:40 PM EST) 2-Moonshine Kisses (4-1)-Comes off a sharp gate to wire score at Plainridge and will need a top effort versus this kind. This veteran still loves to win and is in a spot to cash the top check. Does good work at Yonkers winning 15 of 45. 4-Sumomentsomewhere 5/2-Performed well in the Borgata Series despite not winning. Finished 2nd in the consolation after skipping a start. The Burke trainee could be ready to seal the deal tonight. 7-Boiling Oar 5-1-Has already notched 2 wins in 3 Invitational races and just missed in the other start leaving from post 7 last time. Has been freshened up a bit and should be ready for another aggressive try. Race 7 (9:00 PM EST) 1-Pound for Pound (2-1)-Got on the point last week from post 4 and took no prisoners. Drew off by over 8 lengths in a snappy 151.4. Will use right back versus the same kind and won't be worried the last mile was a fluke. Race 8 (9:20 PM EST) 1-Ben Hope Rulz 3-1-Bumps up after a sharp score with Matt Kakaley between the pipes. Wired the field after a tough opening quarter and now usual pilot Mark MacDonald returns. Could double up with a similar effort. 5-Speed Man N 7/2-This is a drop and pop situation, and George Brennan could be aggressive off the gate. Has enough gate speed to take control, or can benefit from a pocket ride to end up with a picture. Race 9 (9:40 PM EST) 2-Pretty Handsome 3-1-Winless this year (0-11) and has cashed checks facing $40k claimers but hasn’t connected for a picture. Could get off the schneid for 2024 with some class relief now facing $30k claimers. 4-Baron Michael 6-1-Posted a win 3 back at this level and Kakaley could work a stalking trip and roll by down the lane. Doesn’t win often but this is a spot to shine. 6-Dance on the Beach 3-1-Raced well in the last 2 and did hit the board versus $40k claimers. Won against this kind a couple of times recently and has enough gate speed to get a good early seat. Should offer a square price and deserves respect. $1.00 Late Pick 4 2,4,7/1/1,5/2,4,6 Total Bet=$18 Check me out on Twitter!

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4.29.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Monday, April 29, 2024

EXTRA INCENTIVES April $20K Sweepstakes | win up to a $1,000 betting voucher 1/ST KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER GUIDE Free Access + Daily Updates  SCHEDULE NOTES Finger Lakes | opening day | first post 1:15 pm ET Remington Park (AQHA) | special makeup card begins 2 pm ET Preakness Future Wager Pool 2 | open through May 4 | Meet the Contenders  NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Mandatory Payout Pick 5 | $176,026 | Parx | begins Race 6 | 2:59 pm ET Jackpot Pick 6 | $598,178 | Turf Paradise | begins Race 4 | 5:53 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY PARX WINNER Parx | Race 4 | 2:01 pm ET | #4 Peach Perfect (26%) KEY RACES Remington Park (AQHA) | Race 4 | 3:21 pm ET | Remington Park Oaks Remington Park (AQHA) | Race 5 | 3:48 pm ET | Remington Park Derby Remington Park (AQHA) | Race 6 | 4:15 pm ET | Remington Park Futurity LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Parx | Race 6 | 2:59 pm ET Finger Lakes | Race 6 | 3:40 pm ET Turf Paradise | Race 7 | 7:17 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Anthony Ferraro | Finger Lakes | 4 of 5 entrants 4-1 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Santa Anita | Race 1 | nation’s highest-paying exacta ($240) and trifecta ($2,113) PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Monday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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