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11.21.2024:

Race of the Week: Del Mar's Native Diver | Saturday, November 23, 2024

The Lead: Del Mar's Saturday feature drew a better field than expected for $100,000. The Native Diver at 1-1/8 miles arguably stacks up favorably to the Grade 1 Pacific Classic, despite the summer main event offering 10X the loot. What also makes it interesting is this six-pack has very few common races against one another. ​Field Depth: Grade 1 winner MIXTO has the field's signature win in the aforementioned Pacific Classic. But the lineup includes Grade 2 winner SALESMAN, Grade 1-placed MIRAHMADI and SKINNER and Grade 2-placed TARANTINO. ULTRA POWER tries a graded stakes for the first time. ​​ Pace: MIRAHMADI wired last out in his first 2-turn try of the year and should employ similar interests from the rail. TARANTINO showed speed and guts last out on a similar stretch-out and should be in the mix. Look for MIXTO and ULTRA POWER to be close up as well. The pace should be very solid for 1-1/8 miles and a finisher would have a chance if he fires. Our Eyes: Here are my horse-by-horse notes. #1-MIRAHMADI: After eight nibbles in the maiden ranks, he burst open the door with a 10-length victory October 12 that was a long time coming. It was a super stretch-out from the sprints and these types often win right back once the lightbulb flips on. Jockey Juan Hernandez jumps to ride fellow Bob Baffert stablemate Ultra Power, but I preferred this one's more recent works. Baffert has won this race 3 years in a row (6 times overall), including last year with a similar 3-year-old (Mr. Fisk). Distance will be a question, so he'll need to be in the 47s at the half. #2-ULTRA POWER: Second of 2 Baffert sophomores, this Curlin colt disappointed last out as the even-money favorite in an allowance race that set up beautifully for him. Despite a pace duel in front of him and with clear sailing, he failed to get home and get by Native Diver return rival Tarantino. Impeccably bred son of Unique Bella, his August return win at Del Mar hinted at bigger things. Hernandez, who has won this race 2 of the last 4 years, opts to ride over Mirahmadi. #3-SKINNER: Deep closer has been apt for the underneath finishes throughout his 11-race career, always teasing that there's more to come. But he's 11: 1-3-3, including 5: 0-2-1 at Del Mar, and has dropped 7 straight decisions. Should get the pace set-up, but hasn't delivered major improvements second-off-the-layoff in 2 prior breaks. Trainer John Shirreffs won this race in 2019 (Midcourt). #4-SALESMAN: European export has just 1 win from 7 starts since arriving in the barn of Richard Mandella, who owns a record 8 victories in the Native Diver all-time. Mandella's history in this race spans trophies from 1983 through 2020, quite a 37-year evolution. Dubawi 7-year-old doesn't have nearly the speed early of some of these and will need a pace collapse to be successful at 9 furlongs; his lone US win came over 13 furlongs. #5-TARANTINO: Veteran of 24 starts showed promise in Florida at age 3, and now at age 6 was as game as could be asked in a front-running, re-rallying victory at Santa Anita last month. Peter Eurton claimed him in July at Del Mar at the end of a 19-race losing streak, but the colt has won both slugfests for the barn since changing addresses. Not sure he bounces back strongly 4 weeks after such a tough race against Ultra Power. Edwin Maldonado piloted Defunded to win this race in 2022. #6-MIXTO: The 22-1 Pacific Classic upsetter pressed a ridiculous pace in the Breeders' Cup Classic before waving the white towel in a strong rendition of that race. Curious to run back 3 weeks later for $100,000 and have to give 4-7 pounds to his competition as a Grade 1 winner. Trainer Doug O'Neill won this race in 2000 and 2008. He's just 2-for-15 with his best races all coming when he's in the hunt throughout. Pacific Classic-winning jockey Kyle Frey gets sacked in favor of Antonio Fresu. Most Certain Exotics Contender: SKINNER will be passing tired horses and was runner-up in this race a year ago. No reason to think he won't be part of the superfecta, and with a quick pace scenario helping his cause, he's the back half of the exacta in my plays. Best Longshot Exotics Contender: No massive prices projected, but TARANTINO was 13-1 when winning last out and could be overlooked again with a chance to hold for a share.​ Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $35 exacta part-wheel MIRAHMADI, MIXTO over SKINNER ($70). $15 exacta part-wheel TARANTINO, ULTRA POWER over SKINNER ($30).

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11.20.2024:

Frank Carulli: Gulfstream Park $64K Carryover Pick 5 Analysis: Friday, November 22, 2024

Thanksgiving will come nearly a week early for any Gulfstream Park bettor who picks the last five winners on the card this Friday, Nov. 22. The 50-cent Late Pick 5 wager features a $64,848 carryover pool that will likely grow exponentially on race day. Here’s a look at the action with a suggested $81 ticket: GP 5th race (2:31 p.m. EST) -- RACHEL’S SONG won going away in her last three route races on the all-weather track, meets all Florida-breds for the first time and holds a tactical advantage over her main rivals. She will be a popular play in the leadoff leg, but the steadily improving VICTORY BADGE is a viable second option. She rallied for minor awards in 4 of her last 5 allowance route races and gets Paco to ride. GP 6th race (3:02 p.m. EST) -- MANHATTAN BOY made first run to a brief stretch lead and finished between three deep closers at 1 mile and 70 yards. More importantly, the ninth and 10th-place finishers in the field came back to win with 82 and 73 Beyer speed figures, respectively. MR. SCATTER ‘powered clear’ in the final sixteenth to spring an 11-1 upset for his new connections. He gets ample pace flow to do it again in a field that is a combined 15/0-3-5 at 7F. LASSO recovered from a bumpy start and rallied for second behind runaway favorite Raging Fury, who came back to finish second in a 7F state-bred allowance last Saturday. GP 7th race (3:33 p.m. EST) -- WHITE ABARRIO, the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion and $5 million earner, was re-united with trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. after his most recent start in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap in June of this year. The three-time G-1 winner ran away from three next-out winners the last time he raced 7F for these connections. He is working steadily for his return and will be the overwhelming favorite. His stablemate, MISH, is a Pick 5 consideration with a 12/5-4-3 record and six 90-plus Beyers in the last 17 months, including two 7F victories at Gulfstream. GP 8th race (4:04 p.m. EST) -- STEAL SUNSHINE has a Grade 2 victory and three more graded stakes placings in his last eight starts, more than the rest of the field combined. He’s also 5-for-10 at Gulfstream. But those looking for better value should take a second look at SUPER CORINTO and GOLDEN GLIDER in Leg D of the sequence. SUPER CORINTO turned heads in his 2022 North American arrival at Gulfstream Park, running 1-2 in allowance company with upper 90 Beyers. He lost by a combined 82 lengths in his next three starts, but he makes his first start for the red-hot Joseph barn off a five-month layoff. GOLDEN GLIDER, Grade 3-placed on conventional dirt as a 3-year-old, reawakened on the switch from turf to dirt two starts back, beating a non-descript field of $35,000 claimers who were a combined 0-for-6 next out. But he ran okay despite a very wide trip on the class rise, now adds blinkers today at a proven distance. GP 9th race (4:35 p.m. EST) -- Take the last four starts from the nine entrants in this 1-mile and 70-yard allowance for Florida breds and you’ll notice an overall 36/7-6-5 record. Take no chances instead and hit the ‘ALL’ button in hopes that a lucrative Pick 5 payout awaits. Suggested 50-Cent Ticket GP 5th Race: 2, 5 GP 6th Race: 1, 6, 7 GP 7th Race: 2 (If scratched, use #4) GP 8th Race: 3, 4, 8 GP 9th Race: ALL Cost: $81

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11.20.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Wednesday, November 20, 2024

SCHEDULE NOTE Tampa Bay Downs | opening day | first post 12:40 pm ET NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Jackpot Pick 5 | $207,322 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:05 pm ET Pick 5 | $26,408 | Finger Lakes | begins Race 4 | 1:44 pm ET Jackpot Pick 6 | $128,612 | Churchill Downs | begins Race 4 | 2:27 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY FINGER LAKES PICK 5 CARRYOVER WINNER Finger Lakes | Race 7 | 3:08 pm ET | #5 City Blocks (31%) LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Parx | Race 2 | 12:32 pm ET Tampa Bay Downs | Race 9 | 4:40 pm ET Delta Downs | Race 1 | 5:50 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Tom Amoss | Churchill Downs, Delta Downs | all 5 entrants 3-1 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Finger Lakes | jockey Keibar Coa | 3 wins, 3 seconds from 7 mounts PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Tampa Bay Downs Meet Primer Betmix Stats Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Wednesday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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11.19.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Tuesday, November 19, 2024

SCHEDULE NOTE Remington Park | adds Monday-Tuesday cards next 2 weeks (3:30 pm ET) NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Jackpot Pick 5 | $193,163 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:05 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY PARX WINNER Parx | Race 8 | 3:14 pm ET | #8 What Does It Take (27%) LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Finger Lakes | Race 8 | 3:36 pm ET Parx | Race 10 | 4:08 pm ET Mountaineer | Race 8 | 9:55 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Todd Fincher | Zia Park | all 6 entrants 3-1 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Finger Lakes | trainer Kevin Navarro | 3 wins from 7 starters PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Tuesday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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11.18.2024:

Tampa Bay Downs Meet Stats Primer

Tampa Bay Downs opens its 2024-’25 season Wednesday for the first of 89 live racing dates through May 3. The February 8 Sam F. Davis and March 8 Tampa Bay Derby are the key dates on the calendar with full cards of stakes adorning both. After an intermittent start, the season schedule settles into 4-day racing Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday in December. To get you set handicapping this season in Oldsmar, let’s dig into some key stats from the Betmix database. Favorites Overall 38.5% (2023-’24) 38.9% (2022-’23) 37.0% (2021-’22) Favorites Dirt 40.4% (2023-’24) 39.7% (2022-’23) 38.6% (2021-’22) Favorites Turf 34.8% (2023-’24) 37.4% (2022-’23) 33.7% (2021-’22) Average Win Odds Overall 4.60-1 (2023-’24) 4.65-1 (2022-’23) 5.24-1 (2021-’22) Average Win Odds Dirt 4.26-1 (2023-’24) 4.31-1 (2022-’23) 4.73-1 (2021-’22) Average Win Odds Turf 5.23-1 (2023-’24) 5.25-1 (2022-’23) 6.26-1 (2021-’22) Top Jockeys 2023-‘24 Samy Camacho 85 wins (20.8% dirt, 15.1% turf) Antonio Gallardo 72 wins (21.1% dirt, 20.3% turf) Gabriel Maldonado 57 wins (17.1% dirt, 15.8% turf) Daniel Centeno 41 wins (16.0% dirt, 20.0% turf) Marcos Menses 41 wins (12.8% dirt, 12.2% turf) Melissa Iorio 41 wins (14.3% dirt, 16.0% turf) Top Trainers 2023-‘24 Kathleen O’Connell 54 wins (25.5% dirt, 15.8% turf) Gerald Bennett 35 wins (20.5% dirt, 13.0% turf) Jose F. D’Angelo 31 wins (19.8% dirt, 28.0% turf) Gregory Sacco 31 wins (32.4% dirt, 18.4% turf) Juan Arriagada 27 wins (27.8% dirt, 0-15 turf)

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11.18.2024:

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis | Monday, November 18, 2024

Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 begins in Race 5, and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 6 (8:40 PM EST) 5-Blue Hunt (7/2)-Gets some class relief and will look for an aggressive steer from George Brennan. Should get a good stalking trip and be heard from late in the mile. 6-Covered Bridge (8-1)-The classy veteran lands in a soft spot. My take is Jordan Straton will have the pedal down and get on the point. Could wire the field if the start goes well. Race 7 (9:00 PM EST) 1-Shazam Blue Chip (3-1)-Likes to get the top and control the mile. Jason Bartlett will look to do just that and should be in the hunt at the wire. 2-Rock Diamonds N (5-1)-The Joe Bongiorno entry makes its 3rd start off the bench and wasn’t a threat from post 7 last time. The question is will the 11-year-old need this start as well. When dialed on high the Joe B entry can leave about as fast as the gate car and would be very tough to tackle. 4-Rocknroll Runa A (5/2)-This is a competitive affair, and the classy 7-year-old has been facing tough customers on different size ovals all year. Needs a trip, but Larry Stalbaum can find the right journey and Luna can definitely dance with this group. Race 8 (9:20 PM EST) 5-Peace Out Posse (8-1)-Recent form has dropped off but this looks like a spot to wake up. Matt Kakaley sticks and has the gate speed to land on the point. Looking for an aggressive steer and could be sitting on a big try. 6-Surfside Beach (9/2)-Team Stratton 4-year-old bumps up in class but still fits. Has been in sharp form and could return to its winning ways. This race could set up for a stalker and its best to respect. 7-LuckbewithAlex (5-1)-The Hudson trainee led from start to finish versus this kind, basically went .28 quarters and hung on for the win. Left from post 5 last time and should be a solid price here. Could get the top even with this post draw and maybe this time Anthony Napolitano can back the pace down and double up. Race 9 (9:40 PM EST) 1-Memphistennessee N (6-1)-Should land on top or in the 2 hole and either could work for a picture. Dropped back to this level in last but was pace compromised. Knows how to beat this kind and needs to be on the ticket at this price. 3-Saddle Up (9/5)-Comes off a gate to wire score leaving from the 1-hole and has a big chance to double up. Returns in sequence against the same kind. There is no reason to think George Brennan won’t show top gate speed again and could wire another field. $1.00 Late Pick 4 5,6/1,2,4/5,6,7/1,3 Total Bet=$36 Check me out on Twitter!

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11.18.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Monday, November 18, 2024

SCHEDULE NOTE Remington Park | adds Monday-Tuesday cards next 2 weeks (3:30 pm ET) NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Jackpot Pick 5 | $168,955 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:05 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY REMINGTON PARK WINNER Remington Park | Race 6 | 5:50 pm ET | #2 Presleys Volley (31%) KEY RACES Finger Lakes | Race 8 | 3:26 pm ET | Tin Cup Chalice Stakes LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Parx | Race 3 | 12:59 pm ET Finger Lakes | Race 6 | 2:30 pm ET Remington Park | Race 2 | 3:58 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Mindy Willis | Remington Park | 5 of 6 entrants 5-1 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Del Mar | trainer Doug O’Neill | 1 win, 3 seconds from 4 starters PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Monday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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11.17.2024:

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, November 17, 2024

Northfield Park begins the week with a 16-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 11 (9:40 PM EST) 5-A Delightful Act N (5/2)-Won from the 5-hole at this level 2-back and then was stuck leaving from the outside in the past 2 races. This will be the 3rd start after a sick scratch. Billy Davis Jr could leave, get the top and not look back. That trip worked for a picture on 10-4. 6-Think Of Galaxies (9/2)-Comes off a gate to wire score and does well racing on the lead or close to it. Looks like a pocket ride behind #5 could happen and that might result in cashing the top check. 7-Be MyRose N (5-1)-Has hit the board in 8 of 11 races at Nfld with 2 pictures. This will be the 2nd start off the bench, did miss a month and now Burke goes to his top call driver Ronnie Wrenn. The stalker will be rolling hard late in the mile and could catch the leader with an honest pace. Race 12 (10:02 PM EST) 1-Brush N Crush (9/2)-Can't seal the deal at this level but came close when leaving from a choice post. Should enjoy the post relief tonight and can offer a square price. 8-Hill Of A Night (5-1)-Raced from the back in last on a "good" track and its 3-race win streak was snapped. The pace was slow last time, and now Aaron Merriman gets the nod. Should be a fair price and could return to its winning ways. Race 13 (10:24 PM EST) 5-Hot Shave (2-1)-Has won against this kind 2-back and has been in sharp form for the last 5 races. Draws well, Cory Kreiser can have in play at a small price. Can come off cover and be right there at the wire. 6-Copacabana Hanover (5-1)-Davis Jr sticks and has been better in the last 2 races with that pilot between the pipes. Should get a good early seat, and the pace could be lively which won't hurt chances. Race 14 (10:46 PM EST) 1-Prince Charmer (6/5)-Finishing up going chalk-chalk and there isn't much choice. This Burke trainee has faced some tough foes and should be favored but could be over bet. This is a main player but doesn't enjoy taking pictures. 2-Jesmach Allmyheart (7/2)-Team Merriman entry should be out an rolling when the wings fold and has hit the board in 4 of 5 here with 2 wins. The father-son combo doesn't team up on a regular basis. Should get on the engine without any trouble and could be a soft quarter away from a picture. $1.00 Late Pick 4 5,6,7/1,8/5,6/1,2 Total Bet=$24 Check me out on Twitter!

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