Fair Grounds Race 7. Post: 3:00 CT Grade: B+ Top Selection/Prime Play: 5-Admiral Dennis Forecast: Admiral Dennis is a rapidly progressing juvenile fresh from a visually impressive maiden score over a one turn mile at Churchill Downs. Today, the son of Constitution steps into listed stakes company while stretching out to two turns, and if his improvement continues at its present rate the B. Cox-trained colt should be able to take this tougher task in stride. His Beyer number improved 16 points between his debut sprint (a willing third place effort) and his dominating maiden score, and that’s the pattern what you’d want to see from a colt who could be any kind next spring. He’s listed at 9/5 on the morning line, and we hope we can get it. ______________________________________________________________________________ Fair Grounds Race 9. Post: 4:00 CT Grade: B+ Top Selection/Prime Play: 2-Kinetic Forecast: Kinetic is a lightly raced 3-year-old trying added-money competition for the first time while seeking his fourth straight victory in just five career outings. This will be his toughest task to date, but the son of Street Sense has produced a forward move from a speed figure standpoint in each of his starts and should be quite capable of doing so again this year’s edition of the Tenacious Stakes. The B. Cox-trained sophomore is drawn nicely inside and projects to draft into an ideal second flight, stalking position and have every chance from there. Though another career top will be required, his morning line price of 9/2 makes him worth a gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. ______________________________________________________________________________

Last week’s Late Pick 4 Hit & Split at Fair Grounds went so well (even though I went 3 of 4) that the team at 1/ST BET and XpressBet is wheeling it back again this Saturday for the stakes-laden card in New Orleans. Two million 1/ST Rewards Points once again are up for grabs for a sequence that gets rolling with an outstanding edition of the $100k Tenacious and includes a two-turn turf stake and a Kentucky Oaks points race. Let’s get to it! Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play. Race 9: Tenacious S. Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 1 Track Phantom Backups: 2 Kinetic Forecast: #7 Saudi Crown is listed as the 9-5-morning line favorite in one of the more intriguing races on the card. The Always Dreaming colt has not raced since a disappointing effort in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He ran some big races as a 3YO, including his wire-to-wire score in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), but has not been the same horse in 2024. I am willing to let him beat me, especially because I am high on two of his rivals. #1 Track Phantom makes his second start since battling early and tiring late in the Kentucky Derby (G1). The winner of last year’s Gun Runner and Lecomte (G3) shook off the rust going 7-furlongs at Churchill Downs last month and ran well despite understandably tiring a bit in the lane. Now, the Quality Road colt gets back to two-turns over a racetrack he has thrived over. I am expecting a big performance. #2 Kinetic continues to improve. The Godolphin trainee got out of the gates cleaner last out and found a much more prominent spot on the backstretch under Luis Saez. He was asked on the far turn and responded with a near three-length victory in a full-field second-level allowance event at Churchill Downs. If he is within shouting distance again when they turn for home, he very well could be tough to hold off. Race 10: Buddy Dilberto Memorial S. Grade: C+ Main Ticket: 2 Gigante Backups: None Forecast: Unlike the first leg, I am unwilling to take on the morning line choice in this 1 1/16-mile event over the grass. #2 Gigante is listed at 9-5 and deservingly so. The often- underestimated Steve Asmussen trainee makes his third start off the layoff after running third to Battle of Normandy in the River City (G3) at Churchill Downs last month. The Not This Time Colt has a win and second in three starts over this course and projects to get a perfect pocket trip under leading rider Jose Ortiz. I will live and die with the multiple-stakes winning colt. Race 11: Untapable S. Grade: B- Main Ticket: 4 Golden Gamble; 5 California Sunset Backups: None Forecast: This two-turn event for 3YO fillies offers up 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks to the winner and looks like a two-horse race between #4 Golden Gamble and #5 California Sunset. California Sunset beat Golden Gamble in their lone encounter back in late October at Churchill Downs, but that is not a truly fair assessment of their chances. Not only did California Sunset have the advantage of a race under her belt, but also a cleaner trip. It is difficult to hold Golden Gamble’s third on debut against her anyway, since trainer Kenny McPeek cares little about winning first out. His Laoban filly took a solid step forward in her second try albeit against a softer bunch. Anyway, as long as the pace is honest, I expect one of these two gals to come from mid-pack to get to the wire first. Race 12: Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 9 Seattle Road; 12 Cromwell Backups: 4 Pretty Capable; 8 Fanatical; 11 Native Runner Forecast: I am taking a stand against the morning line favorites in the finale. #3 Limited Edition did not have the cleanest voyage when she disappointed at 8-5 in late October at Churchill Downs, but I have not seen enough to get excited about her at a relatively short price. #1 Morlock retains Luis Saez and draws the rail, but is unlikely to have things easy on the front end. #5 Yinzer was a seven-figure purchase, but was chilly on the board on debut and failed to impress. I like #9 Seattle Road most. Trainer Tom Amoss thought enough of this colt to bring him to Saratoga this summer and while he did not fire that day on the lawn or in his next start in Louisville, he showed a lot more with the addition of blinkers last out. He finished extremely well along the inside and appears poised to earn his first lifetime victory. I also give a big shot to #12 Cromwell. The Cherie DeVaux colt was bet down to 2-1-favoritism in his first start at Keeneland and ran a well-beaten third while on the wrong part of the track. He draws unfavorably, but should appreciate the added ground. I will back them up with the other Amoss #4 Pretty Capable, first-time starter #8 Fanatical, and #11 Native Runner who did not run for me last out, but gets blinkers for the initial time. Best of luck in the Bayou!

Oaklawn Park Race 5: Post: 2:22 PM CT Grade: B+ Top Selection/Prime Play: 1-St. Albans Raid Forecast: St. Albans Raid displayed excellent speed in her debut over a one turn mile at Churchill Downs last month in a similar restricted maiden affair before gradually weakening in the final furlong to wind up a respectable fifth while having every right to need the outing. She should be much fitter today, and from her favorable rail post the daughter of Global Campaign projects to be the controlling speed in a race that seems likely to have soft early splits. If she can shake loose early she could get very brave, so at 5-1 on the morning line she offers reasonable value on the tote and in the various rolling exotics. ______________________________________________________________________________ Turfway Park Race 7: Post: 8:55 ET Grade: B+ Top Selection/Prime Play: 4-Hard Circle Forecast: In his first try over an all-weather surface, Hard Circle appears to have found a proper spot to earn his diploma after two solid outings on grass, first when a sharp third at Kentucky Downs in September and then most recently in a third place effort in a turf sprint last month at Aqueduct. In between those races he was unplaced when overmatched in the Laurel Futurity on dirt at Laurel but under these conditions – and with a repeat of either one of his grass races – the son of Hard Spun can graduate. The M. Maker-trained juvenile has a decided edge on speed figures and from where he’s drawn should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position, so let’s make him a gamble at or near his morning line of 3-1. ______________________________________________________________________________

TOURNAMENT TIME $100 Gulfstream Feeder | details NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Jackpot Pick 6 | $146,494 | Turfway Park | begins Race 4 | 7:25 pm ET Pick 5 | $138,972 | Turfway Park | begins Race Race 5 | 7:55 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY TURFWAY PARK CARRYOVER PICK 5 WINNER Turfway Park | Race 8 | 9:25 pm ET | #6 Bromley (22%) LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Oaklawn | Race 6 | 3:50 pm ET Gulfstream Park | Race 10 | 5:04 pm ET Turfway Park | Race 2 | 6:25 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Kathleen O’Connell | Tampa Bay Downs | 4 of 5 entrants 4-1 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Turf Paradise | 20-cent jackpot pick 6 hit for $83,295 on single ticket PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Jeff Siegel: National Best Plays | Friday, December 20, 2024 Frank Carulli: Oaklawn Pick 3 Analysis | Friday, December 20, 2024 Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Friday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Cal Expo has a 12-race card, and the 0.20 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 8. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 8 (9:05 PM PST) 7-Divine Art (6-1)-This mare put in a few starts and did well at Hawthorne after leaving Minny. Now comes to CalX where she has won 11 of 28 on this oval. Should benefit from recent races on a 1-mile track and this isn't a salty group. 8-Graceful Horizon (2-1)-The Roland trainee has done good work at CalX (16-8-2-3). Recently battled Open company at DD and Aces. Should be a main player but has been off a month. Will rely on the connections having the 6-year-old dialed on high coming off the bench. Race 9 (9:25 PM PST) 7-Dancin Lance (5/2)-Hoosier invader has been a check casher at CalX (58-18-14-6). Its form was dull but has been on the shelf since 11-16. Should fit well, and this is a spot to wake up. 8-Unfiltered (7/2)-Raced well last week in the 1st start since 7-2 and cashed a 2nd place check. Should be the one to beat if gets a good steer from this post. Best to respect, has won 12 of 41 at CalX and raced wide much of the mile last time. Race 10 (9:45 PM PST) 5-Major Offense (2-1)-Raced from the back last week and now drops to a spot to shine. This will be the 2nd race since 9-17 and could down this group. But is only 1-28 in 2024 and will offer no value. 7-Somepeopleneedtold (7/2)-Came the back half in 57.1 and charged home with the trainer aboard at 36-1 in its CalX debut. Steps up but Luke Plano is at the controls this time and could bring another big try in the 2nd start on the oval. Race 11 (10:05 PM PST) 1-Daniel's Son (7/2)-There is a new trainer, Greg Watson who purchased the 5-year-old after winning on 12-13. Comes back versus the same kind and has the same pilot Jesse Pacheco between the pipes. This looks like an opportunity for the connections to get a good return at first asking. 4-Ragged But Right (6-1)-Lost some steam down the stretch last week but that was the first start since 9-17. Does well at CalX, has hit the board in 30 of 47 starts with 7 pictures. Jim Lackey should work a smoother journey and could win off a cozy trip. $1.00 Late Pick 4 7,8/7,8/5,7/1,4 Total Bet=$16 Check me out on Twitter!

Saturday is a big day for 1/ST Racing with strong cards at both Gulfstream Park and Laurel Park. The December $10,000 Exacta-Thon at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet gives horseplayers a chance to win their share of $10k by piecing together four or more exactas at each racetrack. It is a worthy challenge, but there very well could be a nice payday awaiting if you are able to connect. Here are a few races I will be attacking on the Gulfstream Park side of things on where it is Pegasus Preview Day down in South Florida. Race 4: Sugar Swirl S. Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. holds an extremely strong hand in this year’s Sugar Swirl with five of the seven set to go to post in this 6-furlong event over the main track. Obviously, jockey tactics in cases like this can play a large role in the race shape, but this race does give us an opportunity at knocking off one of the four exactas in a somewhat compact group. For that reason, I will attack it by keying #7 Mystic Lake on top. This Mo Town filly has taken on many of the best 3YO fillies in the country, including Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion (G1) when we saw her last. She led early that day and tired late to finish fourth, but not only gets some class relief here but potentially a dream run on the cutback. The 5-time winner draws to the far outside in this group of seven, which should give Irad Ortiz Jr. options out of the gate. I expect Ortiz to sit a favorable mid-pack voyage in the clear assuming his mount relaxes off the three-month break. If so, she should be tough to hold off. I will key her over #4 Spirit Wind and #6 Socially Selective in hopes of stealing an easy win in the Exacta-Thon without spending much of my budget. Play: Exacta 7 with 4+6 Race 6: This MSW event for 2YOs at 1 1/16-miles over the grass has some high-profile barns in it, including a pair of Chad Brown trainees and a second-time starter for Todd Pletcher. I am hopeful that leads to an inflated price on #7 Stewball. The Kitten’s Joy gelding overcame a less- than-ideal voyage for a first-time starter going 5.5-furlongs on the sod at Laurel Park in late October. He was given an aggressive ride out of his rail draw that day by jockey Horacio Karamanos, but was beaten to the lead putting him in chase mode early. This is not a favorable position for a young horse to be in, yet he was able to overcome the early adversity to run a non-threatening fifth. Now. Trainer Michael Trombetta stretches him out to two turns, which he is bred to prefer. I expect him to love the added ground and therefore am willing to I live and die with him in the Exacta-Thon. I will box him with second-time starter #5 No More War who had a bit of trouble over the all-weather in his first start and #10 Cipher who attracts Irad Ortiz Jr. after a third place run to kick off his career in New York. Play: Exacta Box 5+7 and Exacta Box 7+10 Race 9: Harlan’s Holiday (G3) If you have followed my work over the years you know #2 Tumbarumba is one of the horses I have a soft spot for. The Louisiana-bred simply tries as hard as any horse I can remember. This effort has led to more heartbreak than victories in 2024, but trust me it is not for a lack of effort. The connections opted to take a shot shipping the Oscar Performance gelding out for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile instead of competing in a similar spot to this one in Kentucky in late November and he ran a strong fourth at odds of 33-1. Trainer Brian Lynch has given the 4YO some time and brings him back in a very favorable spot over a surface he has not finished worse than second over in three tries. He will be very tough to beat. I will key Tumbarumba on top over #1 Tuscan Sky in his first start since losing by three-quarters of a length to Generous Tipper in the $150k Discovery at Aqueduct and #5 Vitality who tries this surface for the first time after a half-length defeat at double-digit odds in a second-level allowance at Churchill Downs. Play: Exacta 2 with 1+5 Best of luck attacking a fun and potentially lucrative promotion!

EXTRA INCENTIVES $10 Money-Back Special | Fraser Downs | Race 1 | up to $10 back if win bet finishes 2nd, 3rd TOURNAMENT TIME $100 Gulfstream Feeder | details NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Jackpot Pick 6 | $61,917 | Turf Paradise | begins Race 3 | 3:38 pm ET Super Hi 5 | $13,050 | Gulfstream Park | Race 9 | 4:36 pm ET Jackpot Pick 6 | $140,326 | Turfway Park | begins Race 4 | 7:25 pm ET Super Hi 5 | $7,407 | Turfway Park | Race 9 | 9:55 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY GULFSTREAM PARK WINNER Gulfstream Park | Race 6 | 3:00 pm ET | #5 Frida (28%) KEY RACES Mahoning Valley | Race 7 | 3:33 pm ET | Bricker Memorial Stakes Mahoning Valley | Race 8 | 4:06 pm ET | Radosevich Memorial Stakes LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Mahoning Valley | Race 7 | 3:33 pm ET Fair Grounds | Race 8 | 5:15 pm ET Turfway Park | Race 8 | 9:25 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Tim Kreiser | Penn National | 5 of 6 entrants 4-1 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Turfway Park | Race 9 | nation’s highest-paying exacta ($267), trifecta ($6,102) and superfecta ($38,795) PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Thursday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

The Lead: Saturday will be Pegasus Preview Day at Gulfstream Park with a series of stakes providing the steppingstones to January 25. We'll focus on the 1-1/16 miles Grade 3 Harlan's Holiday, the day's prep for the Pegasus World Cup main event. The Harlan's Holiday, inaugurated in 2011, is named for early 2000s Gulfstream great who won both the Florida Derby and Donn Handicap. Saturday's Harlan's Holiday and Gulfstream card will be part of an Exacta-Thon promotion with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet that also includes races from Laurel Park. ​Field Depth: Grade 2 winner STEAL SUNSHINE is joined in the field of 8 by the likes of Grade 3 winners TUMBARUMBA and ROCKET CAN. Listed stakes winners include TUSCAN SKY and VITALITY. Note SUPER CORINTO was a Group 1 winner in Chile. TUMBARUMBA and STEAL SUNSHINE have consistently held the strongest company lines in the field. ​​ Pace: Inside speed at 1-1/16 miles is quite advantageous with the track configuration at Gulfstream. The inner-4 posts here all have some designs on or near the lead, led by CAPE TRAFALGAR, TUMBRARUMBA, TUSCAN SKY and DIGITAL OPS. The pace should be solid to quick. Our Eyes: Here are my horse-by-horse notes. #1-TUSCAN SKY: Todd Pletcher takes aim at a fourth Harlan's Holiday winner with this 3-year-old who has yet to take on elders. Returned from 3-month break to run solid second in the Discovery at Aqueduct and figures to be in the mix throughout with a positive draw. Time was fast in Dec. 14 work at Palm Beach Downs, but was outworked that day in company with elder turf runner Major Dude and was never able to get on even terms. #2-TUMBARUMBA: Fair to consider him a 1-turn mile specialist, but his 3 most recent 2-turn races are all top-3 stakes finishes within 1-1/2 lengths of the winner each time. Trainer Brian Lynch turns the reins over to Tyler Gaffalione for the first time, a rider who won this race last year aboard O'Connor. Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile fourth-place finisher saw Post Time come out of that race as runner-up and finish a closing third in the Cigar Mile. Fits again. #3-CAPE TRAFALGAR: Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. looks for a Harlan's Holiday Stakes 3-peat (Skippylongstocking '22, O'Connor '23). This is 1 of 3 Josephn trainees in the field Saturday and the most likely pacesetter. Inconsistent sort hasn't been able to pair up strong efforts this year, so a 2-month break since a Keeneland allowance win may help some. Two turns are a big question on pedigree and lack of experience doing so. #4-DIGITAL OPS: Aqueduct allowance winner October 26 since has been transferred from Chad Brown to Saffie Joseph Jr. All or nothing through 5 starts, his wins have come when on the front end, and losses resulting in races where the Nyquist colt can't make the front. Not sure he's quick enough to get on top vs. these. Dylan Davis is 2-for-2 aboard him, though, and rides in his South Florida initial foray. #5-VITALITY: Canadian-bred won September's Prince of Wales at Fort Erie to wrap his nation's Tripple Crown and now takes on elders for the first time. Decent tries stateside in Kentucky allowance races since, but this Street Boss colt might be a slight cut below these. Will require a career-best effort. #6-STEAL SUNSHINE: Gulfstream Mile winner in March was fourth in this race last year with a late move, and that late kick was on display here Nov. 22 in a strong allowance prep. But he's never won in 5 starts at 1-1/16 miles and that sixteenth-pole finish line really challenges his running style. A lot to like about a 5-year-old with an outstanding record over this track -- the short stretch finish notwithstanding. #7-ROCKET CAN: The 2023 Holy Bull winner and Fountain of Youth runner-up returns to the scene of his best efforts. Will the track perk up his performances, or was he an early developer who hasn't progressed much at age 4? Sluggish from the gate at times and rarely fires unless he gets into the mix earlier. You'll know by the time they hit the backstretch where he's at currently. Demand a solid price to find out -- and that's been rare for a horse often solidly bet. #8-SUPER CORINTO: Argentine-bred was a major player in Chile in 2022 and showed promise upcoming coming to the US that fall with a Gulfstream allowance win. But he's made only 4 starts since to no positive results. Moved from Amador Sanchez to Ignacio Correas to Saffie Joseph Jr. looking for improvement. Joseph did win this race with a 6-year-old South American import O'Connor 2 years ago, but his 7-length defeat to Steal Sunshine in a local allowance prep doesn't inspire confidence. Most Certain Exotics Contender: TUMBRARUMBA has 9 straight superfecta finishes (11 of his last 12) and has not missed the exacta in 3 tries on the Gulfstream main. Best Longshot Exotics Contender: DIGITAL OPS is drawn decently and has some pace, if employed, to be in the hunt and hold for a minor share.​ Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $75 win TUMBRARUMBA. $25 exacta TUMBRARUMBA over STEAL SUNSHINE.