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5.7.2025:

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | May 7, 2025

The illustrious Run for the Roses has come and gone, and the countdown to Preakness is on! In the meantime, a handful of cards from the Pearl of the Orient still decorate the track list and I’m still chasing the tickets to make my day. Let’s take some swings on this Happy Valley Wednesday!Helpful ResourcesHappy Valley – May 7Past Performances Speed Pro Pace ProjectionsUnique Bet TypesSWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combinationQUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combinationTRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combinationDOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any orderMethodologyPower ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.Race 1 | 1650M | Class 5Win - 6Notes: 6 – TATTENHAM is in an odd pattern, finishing within striking distance in three of his last four starts that include a try on the all-weather surface at Sha Tin. The power ratings favor 3 – THE KHAN, but only by a half of a point. I find our top choice to be much better suited for the mile distance and fair pace setup we should see. Let’s bet to win.Race 2 | 1000M | Class 5Exacta Key Box – 7 w/ 4,12Notes: There are two short prices in this field that are deserving of taking some money in the Win pool. 4 – RAGNARR and 12 – ACE TALENT are formidable foes in this five furlong dash. The Power Ratings have found a darling at 16/1 in 7 – MODEST GENTLEMAN, so much so that he tops my chart. Looking at the form, I have no reason to think our short prices aren’t firmly in the mix, so we’ll play to crash the board with a price in the exacta.Race 3 | 2200M | Class 4Win – 1Exacta Box – 1,3Trifecta – 1,3 / 8 / 1,3Notes: I’ve played this top choice before, and as the name suggests, we CAN’T GO WONG again here. At 15/2 under the guidance of jockey Matthew Poon, 1 – CAN’T GO WONG is primed and ready to go the extra distance in this marathon of a race. His last two outings have needed some extra track, and finally he gets what he wants. Alongside him, I like 3 – SERANGOON at 11/1 who has shown more than enough to get it done going this far. We’ll play for the exacta and split the tri with the ML favorite.Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4Win - 3Notes: Top choice 3 – LOVEISINTHEAIR is the highest rated horse in the Power Ratings, runs for the trainer with the top winning percentage in the field (John Size), gets a top-tier mount in Hugh Bowman, and that’s enough for me to play to win.Race 7 | 1650M | Class 4Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 2,4,5Quinella Box – 2,4,5Notes: The strategy for betting this race sort of flies in the face of what I would typically preach, but the situation in this race makes it where a price can be had even if we have to overlap some ideas. 1 – IVY LEAGUE is my top pick and second choice on the morning line at 3/1. I’m anticipating a bit lower odds at post time, but we can play with some prices in the exacta and hopefully turn a big payout. The Power Ratings have three well-priced runners following our top choice, and not by much. For that reason, I want to play a quinella in case it’s bombs away.Race 8 | 1650M | Class 3Win – 1Exacta – 1,10 w/ 1,10,7Notes: 1 – M UNICORN is firmly my top choice in the Power Ratings, and at 15/2 on the morning line I think he’s well worth a play to win. Next up in the chart is 10 – LUCKY TOUCH at 10/1 with leading jockey Zac Purton in the irons. Not loved by the numbers, but certainly looking good on paper, is morning line favorite 7 – HIGHLAND RAHY (2/1). If my top two Power Ratings choices find their way in first and second, I would regret not playing them together and not listening to my own numbers. We’ll play them together and add the short price for some insurance in the second spot.Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3Swinger – 3,4,9,10Notes: The card’s finale seems open for upsets, but it’s difficult to really decipher a clear standout from the bunch. More than anything, this is a play against the ML favorite 7 – LUCKY PLANET and an opportunity for multiple scores in one ticket. A Swinger requires bettors to pick two of the top three in any order and pays for each correct combination. We’re going to play in hopes of hitting all three top spots and getting paid on numerous combinations, but even if the 6/5 ML favorite runs to expectations we should be able to fill out the trifecta with two of our better choices.

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5.6.2025:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Tuesday, May 6, 2025

NOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $124,787 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY LOUISIANA DOWNS WINNERLouisiana Downs | Race 4 | 6:29 pm ET | #4 Knock’em Out Jerry (30%)KEY RACESWill Rogers Downs | Race 7 | 5:07 pm ET | More Than Even StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 1 | 2:10 pm ETParx | Race 10 | 4:47 pm ETMountaineer | Race 5 | 8:40 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHTim Murphy | Finger Lakes | all 4 entrants 9-2 or less morning lineDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Finger Lakes | favorites won 6 of 8 races on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Tuesday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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5.5.2025:

Meet the Contenders: Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies at Gulfstream Park | Saturday, May 10, 2025

The third annual Royal Palm Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies share the spotlight Saturday at Gulfstream Park with automatic bids to Royal Ascot races on the line. Winners of both races will receive travel stipends and entry into their choice of 6 potential Royal Ascot stakes held June 17-21 in England.Let’s meet the contenders for the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies (Race 6):#1-ROYAL TESTAMENT: Debut filly for trainer George Weaver, who two years ago swept both Royal Palm races at Gulfstream. She’s loaded with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners Midshipman, Unbridled’s Song and Hansen in the first 2 generations of her pedigree.#2-BIBI DAHL: $1,350,000 yearling purchase by American Pharoah makes her first start. She’s bred to win early as her dam Just Louise started 2-for-2 in 2010 and won the Grade 3 Debutante at Churchill Downs. Jorge Delgado trains the fast-working Palm Meadows and Gulfstream rookie.#3-STRADA DEL SOGNO: Tareq Moubarak unveils this Street Boss filly off a string of 6 dirt workouts at Gulfstream Park. She’s out of the unraced Violence mare Line Up and cost just $25,000. Her name is Italian for Dream Road.#4-SATISFIED MIND: Runway Keeneland debut winner April 26 for trainer Wesley Ward, who surprisingly has been shut out the first 2 years of the Royal Palm races. $25,000 daughter of First Samurai shares some of the precocity of her father, who went 4-for-4 to open the 2005 season with a pair of Grade 1 wins. Emisael Jaramillo rode both Royal Palm winners in 2024 and pilots here.#5-NONNA’S LOVE: Half-sister to 2013 Champion 2-Year-Old and 2024 Florida Derby winner Fierceness, she’s coming off a third-place finish April 23 on dirt at Keeneland. Todd Pletcher trains the home-bred as well as several generations of both the male and female femalies. Sire Caravaggio brings the turf sprint to the pedigree as he won the first 6 starts of his career in the UK for Aidan O’Brien, including 2 Group 1s.#6-LENNILU (pictured): Keeneland’s first baby dash winner of the 2025 Spring Meet already has had her form franked. Runner-up Kadabra scored May 3 at Aqueduct for Todd Pletcher in her reappearance. Lennilu is by elite grass sprinter Leinster, who won the 2021 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint over this course and was third in the ’20 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Patrick Biancone trains and Luis Saez sticks with the mount.#7-AUTHENTIC GUITAR: Debut runner sports 4 dirt workouts at Palm Meadows. Dante Zanelli trainee cost just $12,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. She’s by Kentucky Derby winner Authentic and out of multiple NYRA listed turf sprint stakes winner Lead Guitar, who won 6 of 10 starts.#8-EMERALD EMBER: Second Patrick Biancone entrant in the lineup, joining Lennilu, but unlike that one does not have the benefit of a race under her belt. Both stablemates are by elite grass sprinter Leinster, who won the 2021 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint over this course and was third in the ’20 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Florida-bred has 3 Palm Meadows works showing, 2 on the turf.#9-RUMPUS IN PARADISE: Trainer Luis Mendez has been known over the years for some early season juvenile success in Southern California. He tries this $10,000 bargain Cal-bred by Rumpus Cat who has been training at Ocala and Palm Meadows, but yet to test turf. Sire Rumpus Cat wasn’t much of a racehorse but is the product of Champion 2-Year-olds Street Sense (2007 Kentucky Derby winner as well) and Sweet Catomine.#10-BOHEMIAN: The only locally experienced entrant, this Jack Sisterson trainee was a well-beaten fifth of 10 in his April 17 Gulfstream debut. Purchased for $85,000 at Ocala in March, he has worked on both turf and dirt since arriving at Palm Meadows. He’s a son of 2YO Champion Essential Quality, a Belmont Stakes winner.#11-KITTY CLEO: Irish-bred makes her career debut in the colors of Stonestreet Stable and trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. She shows a drill on the Gulfstream dirt and Tapeta for this first test. Sire Cotai Glory was a multiple Group 3 winner in the UK and Group 1-placed and best known in the US for a runner-up in Woodbine’s Nearctic and ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint of 2017.#12-LE SUNSHINE: Trainer Mark Casse found the winner’s circle in last year’s Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies with Bullet and looks for an encore. Le Sunshine is a thrifty $10,000 daughter of Tathqeef. She has trained at the Casse farm in Ocala as well as Gulfstream on the dirt.(AE) #13-JUST A LITTLE BIT: Stanford filly for trainer Luis Mendez, who also has Rumpus in Paradise entered. She’s had a turf work at Palm Meadows. Luca Panici is named on both barnmates.(AE) #14-DIVINELY INSPIRED: Arguably the more appealing of the Mark Casse entrants, though Le Sunshine drew into the main body of the field. Miguel Vasquez named on this $35,000 Constitution filly who has a more pronounced morning workout regimen than her stablemate.

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5.5.2025:

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis | Monday, May 5, 2025

Yonkers Raceway begins the week with a 10-race card. The $2.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 7 (8:45 PM EDT)2-Humble A (5/2)-This will be the 2nd start off a sick scratch after cashing a couple of smaller checks in the Borgata Series. The DiDomenico entry has won 7 of 11 starts at Yonkers but is winless this year. Will look for an aggressive steer from George Brennan and the extra distance shouldn't hurt chances.4-Finvarra A (7/2)-Has been off since 4-21 but rolled a 55.3 and back half in Leg 4 of the Borgata and Jason Bartlett gets tonight’s assignment. The Bartlett-Dilloian combo posts 46% winners and should be forwardly placed from start to finish.Race 8 (9:05 PM EDT)2-Racing Rampage (7/2)-The entire field has a total of 2 wins on the year. The Alexander trainee did win 8 of 16 in 2024 and has won 8 of 18 at Yonkers. That said, the 5-year-old is lightly raced and does have issues. Comes back in sequence and this could be wake-up time. If Matt Kakaley gets on the engine, he could steal a quarter, and it could lead to an overdue picture.5-Dunkin' (5-1)-The added distance might help the 5-yr old who had 12 wins in 18 starts in 2024 and is 0-9 this year. This is a struggling group, so will take a swing here and fade the 2-1 program chalk #6 Admiral Hill. George Brennan could settle in off the gate and look to roll late. The opening half mile might be spicy, and Dunkin could finish best of all at a square price.Race 9 (9:25 PM EDT)3-Dougs Babe A (7/2)-Recorded its first win of 2024 in Philly on 4-25. As is the case with almost all of this crew, wins have been scarce this year. Dexter Dunn grabs the lines, and the upswing could continue as he has options when the wings fold.7-Promiseland A (5/2)-My thinking is the extra 1/4 mile will help the Engblom entry who has only 2 wins since1-1-24. Jason Bartlett could leave and land no worse than in the pocket and either trip could work for a picture.Race 10 (9:45 PM EDT)1-Heaven On High N (6-1)-Mark MacDonald is starting to heat up and will take a swing with a Stga shipper who has hit the board in 8 of 16 at YR with 3 pictures. Likes to race near the top and could get that trip here at a nice price.5-Santana Hanover (7/5)-Faced the NW15kL5 in last and left from the 8-hole. Now drops to the level of its last win that came 2 back. Got on the engine and couldn't be caught, and this race probably goes through the Joe B trainee.$2 Late Pick 42,4/2,5/3,7/1,5Total Bet=$32Check me out on Twitter!

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5.5.2025:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Monday, May 5, 2025

NOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $92,699 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETPick 5 | $9,776 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | begins Race 4 | 3:43 pm ETPick 4 | $3,741 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | begins Race 5 | 4:14 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY THISTLEDOWN WINNERThistledown | Race 4 | 2:20 pm ET | #1 Slew Crown (32%)LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXParx | Race 10 | 4:47 pm ETMountaineer | Race 1 | 7:00 pm ETLouisiana Downs | Race 7 | 7:53 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHTrevor Gallimore | Parx | 4 of 5 entrants 9-2 or less morning lineDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Mountaineer | favorites won 5 of 8 races on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Monday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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5.4.2025:

Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Santa Anita | $77K Carryover Sunday

NOTE: $77,347 pick 6 carryover awaits on Races 5-10 Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.__________________________________________________________Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: BMain Ticket: 3-Holly GoquicklyBackups: 8-Inner Fury (Ire).Forecast: You can draw a line through Holly Goquickly’s last race – she was eliminated when attempting to rally at the quarter pole after appearing to clip heels - and key off her solid third race effort at this level two runs back. She gets an extra furlong to work with today and should be along in time under J. Hernandez and will get the bulk of our play in the rolling exotics in this modest maiden $50,000 claimer for older fillies and mares.__________________________________________________________Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: C+Main Ticket: 4-Rank; 2-Concorde BridgeBackups: 6-War to Remember.Forecast: Rank is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this maiden optional claiming extended sprint, and while he’s had a lot of chances and isn’t one to trust, the turn back to a sprint might be what he’s always been looking for. If he can’t beat this field under these conditions, he’s off our list for good. Concorde Bridge has numbers that fit and a good second flight style for this extended sprint distance. He’s a one-paced griding type but in a soft field he has to be considered something of a contender.__________________________________________________________Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: XMain Ticket: 1-FionelloBackups: none.Forecast: Fionello was bid up $250,000 at auction as a yearling and debuts in a very soft maiden state-bred sprint for juveniles. The son of Stay Thirsty has done some very good work leading up to his debut and almost certainly will be an odds-on favorite and very likely winner in a field without any serious alternatives.__________________________________________________________Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: BMain Ticket: 6-Mrs. Astor; 5-Starry HeavensBackups: 3-Mahina.Forecast: Mrs. Astor finished eagerly without seriously challenging when second in the Santa Ana S.-G3 over 10 furlongs on this course last time out but at this marathon distance against a lesser field the J. Thomas-trained mare should be able get up in time. It what projects to be a slowly run race, the daughter of Lookin At Lucky can settle in the second flight and then accelerate when given her cue. Starry Heavens, a reasonable third in her U.S. debut in the same race our top pick exits, certainly has a right to improve and probably is the one to be concerned about the most.__________________________________________________________Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+Main Ticket: 1-Western FreedomBackups: 7-Letmein.Forecast: Western Freedom looked good graduating under hand urging only in his second career start and earned a number that should be sufficient to repeat on the raise in this first level abbreviated sprint for state-bred sophomores. He’s a not a particularly quick type but should be able to settle into a stalking position and then have every chance from there as a logical rolling exotic single.__________________________________________________________Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B-Main Ticket: 10-Rexford; 3-Yogi Boy.Backups: 7-Known Idea.Forecast: Rexford has been facing tougher foes of late without a whole lot of success so this drop into the restricted (nw-3) $30,000 claiming ranks is warranted. Freshened since February, the P. D’Amato-trained gelding has won over this course in the past, is solid on numbers, and should be capable of producing a winning late kick from the second flight. Yogi Boy is in good form and is realistically spotted after a clever win from starter’s foes over this course and distance. He'll need a bit of improvement in the speed figure department but might have it in him.__________________________________________________________Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: C+Main Ticket: 2-Chasing Ryder; 8-What the Buzz.Backups: 10-El Ondeado; 11-My Pal George.Forecast: Here’s a messy affair for low level maiden claimers. We’ll double the race on our main ticket but suggest you go deeper if you feel the need. Chasing Ryder plummets from straight maiden to maiden $12,500 for the high percentage J. Mullins barn and adds blinkers while stretching out for the first time. He’ll get plenty of play by default. What’s the Buzz is bit intriguing at 5-1 on the morning line. His runner-up effort in Phoenix last month charts pretty well at this level and before that he was overmatched facing tougher on grass on this circuit. This looks like a reasonable spot, though his low profile outfit hardly inspires confidence.__________________________________________________________Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: BMain Ticket: 1-Exultation; 2-Vantastic.Backups: 6-Ottoman Prince.Forecast: Exultation is an ex-classer moving up a notch following a confidence-building $25,000 claiming win over this course and distance in January, and while the layoff is a concern the work tab looks healthy so we’re expecting his typical genuine effort. From the rail, he’s guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip under regular pilot J. Hernandez. Vantastic is a seven time winner over the local lawn and is a strong it at this level. He’s a one-paced grinder who always tries hard but sometimes can be a bit pace dependent.__________________________________________________________Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B+Main Ticket: 2-TraegarBackups: 1-Judge Miller.Forecast: Traegar has been off since November, but he’s won fresh in the past, is fast on figures, and hails from a high percentage barn that sends them fit and spots them right. The lightly raced six-year-old always fights hard when challenged and can be counted on to take advantage of a moderate pace scenario that should promote his pace pressing style. We’ll make him a win play at or near his morning line of 3-1 and a major push in our rolling exotics.__________________________________________________________Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: BMain Ticket: 7-Blevys Tiger; 3-Big Pop.Backups: 10-Blue Wildcat.Forecast: Blevys Tiger was nosed in a downhill turf dash at this level last month and will be tough to beat if she can duplicate that effort on the flat course. This will be her second start off a layoff, and if she doesn’t go backwards she’ll be a major factor throughout. Big Pop is soft in the speed figure department, but she’s lightly raced and eligible to improve with experience for the high percentage M. Glatt barn. She could easily step forward in a big way today after winning at this level on dirt last time out.__________________________________________________________

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5.4.2025:

Shapiro & Nicoletti: Sunday's $244K Carryover / Mandatory Payout Gulfstream Pick 6 Selections

Gulfstream Park’s Sunday card features a $244,230 carryover and mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 today. Races 4 through 9 make up the sequence, which is slated to begin around 2:29 pm ET. Our handicapper Scott Shapiro offers his top selections in each race, along with local handicapper Ron Nicoletti.Race 4Shapiro:5-Speranzosa7-Woodspoint2-Back to GridlockNicoletti:5-Speranzosa4-Deep Dusk2-Back to GridlockRace 5Shapiro:2-Hot Blooded3-Uno Tiger1-ReminderNicoletti:2-Hot Blooded5-Souper Attentive1-ReminderRace 6Shapiro:7-Blast Radius9-Italian Symphony3-Secret LoverNicoletti:7-Blast Radius3-Secret Lover2-Sixteen CigarettesRace 7Shapiro:4-Play Free Bird5-Bomb Squad6-BurnawayNicoletti:7-Mean to Me4-Play Free Bird6-BurnawayRace 8Shapiro:6-Mywifeknowsitall7-Royally Blue2-Travel HappyNicoletti:9-Coco Abarrio2-Travel Happy5-Denver’s AlleyRace 9Shapiro:8-El Muheet3-Milazzo1-ImperatusNicoletti:8-El Muheeet (best bet)9-Accelerate Me3-Milazzo

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5.4.2025:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Sunday, May 4, 2025

TOURNAMENT TIME$40 Santa Anita feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $244,230 | Gulfstream Park | begins Race 4 | 2:29 pm ETPick 6 | $39,250 | Belmont at the Big A | begins Race 5 | 2:59 pm ETPick 6 | $77,347 | Santa Anita | begins Race 5 | 6:08 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY GULFSTREAM PICK 6 WINNERGulfstream Park | Race 5 | 3:06 pm ET | #2 Hot Blooded (29%)KEY RACESAqueduct | Race 3 | 2:04 pm ET | License Fee StakesAqueduct | Race 7 | 3:55 pm ET | Vagrancy StakesAqueduct | Race 8 | 4:24 pm ET | Beaugay StakesAqueduct | Race 9 | 4:53 pm ET | Weschester StakesWoodbine | Race 9 | 5:126 pm ET | Thorncliffe StakesSanta Anita | Race 4 | 5:36 pm ET | Santa Barbara StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXLaurel Park | Race 1 | 12:10 pm ETGulfstream Park | Race 2 | 1:22 pm ETSanta Anita | Race 10 | 8:38 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHMark Glatt | Santa Anita | 7 of 8 entrants 5-1 or less morning lineDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Churchill Downs | jockey Flavien Prat | 3 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds from 13 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMJeff Siegel: Santa Anita Full-Card Analysis | Sunday, May 4, 2025Scott Shapiro & Ron Nicoletti: Gulfstream Park Pick 6 Mandatory Payout Race Selections | Sunday, May 4, 2025Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Sunday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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