The Lead:
Fall Stars Weekend at Keeneland provides the traditional kick-off to the Fall Meet. Saturday's loaded lineup of Breeders' Cup tune-ups includes the $1 million Coolmore Turf Mile, which has jumped sponsors from its former Shadwell Turf Mile that you may recall. But it's the same race -- if not better -- with a loaded cast in Race 10 of 11.

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​Field Depth:
ORDER OF AUSTRALIA is a G1 winner of the Breeders' Cup Mile over this course in 2020, while fellow G1 winners abound in CLASSIC CAUSEWAY, SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT, IVAR, SANTIN and CASA CREED. SET PIECE is a G2 winner and G1 placed, while G3 winner MASEN is a nose from G1 glory. This is a loaded lineup for G1-types only to be considered.

Pace:
It should be dynamite. CLASSIC CAUSEWAY and SMOOTH LIKE STRAIGHT on the inside are near-certain to set strong fractions. SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN is very quick when used, and pressers SANTIN and MASEN don't let the leaders get out of their sights. ANNAPOLIS does some of his best running near the front, though not a blazer. A strong finisher has a big chance.

Our Eyes:
Favorites have lost this race 7 years in a row with winners at 8-1, 9-1, 12-1, 14-1 and 23-1 during that span. You can take a short price if you wish, but read the warning label.

ORDER OF AUSTRALIA's Keeneland forays are as opposing as can be, winning the 2020 Breeders' Cup Mile and finishing last of 12 as the 6-5 favorite in this race last Fall Meet. His 2022 form in the UK and France indicates he's still inconsistent and trust runs shallow. Trainer Aidan O'Brien won this race in 2006 with Aussie Rules, but only 1 Euro has won it since.

The Arlington Million wasn't its internationally strong self this year moved to Churchill on a convoluted mess of a turf course. But its 1-2 finishers SANTIN and SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT were their usual, reliable selves. But note those 9F returnees would buck history here as the last 10 winners of the Turf Mile exited preps between 1 mile and 1-1/16 miles. There are some major players here, including the 3-year-old CLASSIC CAUSEWAY, trying to shorten from farther trips than history embraces. SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT may be best equipped of this trio to succeed, given his past miler success. He was third in Keeneland's Makers Mark Mile in the spring, beaten only a neck. In fact, his last 10 losses have been by just 6-1/4 combined lengths, while 2nd and 3rd place finishes in Grade 1 and Grade 2 stakes. But the pace pressure will be hot for 'STRAIT and this complete trio.

CASA CREED and MASEN rematch from a 1=3 finish in the G1 Fourstardave at Saratoga. MASEN has the better Keeneland form on the change of venue, having missed by a nose in April's G1 Maker's Mark Mile. But MASEN loves to sit second and pounce, and that's going to be busy real estate against this pace lineup. The late run of CASA CREED gets the right set-up among this pair. MASEN's Chad Brown stablemate EMARRATY is pace-versatile, but with a wide draw it's going to be a tough decision and ground-loss opportunity Florent Geroux must avoid.

Trainer Paulo Lobo won this race last year with In Love and 2 years ago with IVAR, the latter returning to the scene Saturday. He's the best closer in a field loaded with pace. Granted, he's just 1-for-6 since that signature '20 Fall Meet win locally, but his second to globetrotter Modern Games in the Woodbine Mile last month was promising. Another closer to watch is SET PIECE, who from the outside draw will drop back and make one late run under finishing maestro Joel Rosario. This sets up beautifully if he's on his best form.
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Most Certain Exotics Contender:
Even with a tough pace assignment, it's hard to knock the consistent placings of SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT for a superfecta share.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
Kentucky Downs has produced 3 of the last 4 winners of this Keeneland opening weekend fixture. A closer via KD at a price would seem the proper fit if history has a say. GRAY'S FABLE has shown some effectiveness from off the pace in recent outings and was beaten less than 3 lengths in the Mint Million last out.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win IVAR. $10 exacta key-box IVAR with CASA CREED and SET PIECE ($20).