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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis | Monday, December 26, 2022

by Al Cimaglia

December 24, 2022

 

Cal Expo has a big 14-race card scheduled with a 7:55 EST first post. The feature is the Funicello/Holt Final with a $13,500 purse that goes in Race 8. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 9. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

5-Chasing Bismark (8-1)-Comes off an improved effort in its 2nd local start. Finished 2nd at a big price after rallying with a 56.3 back half. Has hit the board in 20 of 35 races this year with 5 wins and could add to that total with a sharp steer.
8-Hay Hay Alright (5-1)-Hasn't connected for a picture in 5 starts here but has done good work at CalX in the past (41-8-9-2). A dry track could help, does face easier and the Johnson barn is due to rack up some wins.
9-Ynotthishos (5/2)-Was driven aggressively to get on the point early on and faded down the lane. Still raced well, beaten by less than 2 lengths. Drops, the post helps the price and should be a player with a smooth trip.

Race 10

3-A Private Affair (10-1)-Put in a nice qualifier at CalX on 12-18 leaving from post 10 to land in the 2-hole. Raced with $5,000-$7,000 claimers at Fraser Downs up until 11-28 and was competitive. This mare has a 2022 record of (31-4-6-11) and should fit well.
7-Steady Breeze (7/2)-Raced big on 12-18 in the 1st start since 8-25 after being parked out past the opening quarter. Finally landed on the point and almost lasted. Versatile mare can win coming off cover as well and has 12 wins in 27 CalX races.
8-Outlawburntpopcorn (5-1)-Aces invader has put in 4 dull tries here but gets the class relief needed for a win. Drops in a for tag and will face similar company that she has done well against up north.
10-Brooklyn Wind Up (6-1)-Comes back at the same class after a nice score from post 9. Thiessen grabs the lines and hopefully he can get this mare to roll late again. Paced the back half last week in .56 with a 28.2 final panel to get up in time.

Race 11

4-Trey Rockette (5-1)-The 2 off-track efforts here have been dull, the 2 tries on a dry surface were better and was facing tougher. The 1-17 win record at CalX is a cause to pause but will take a swing the weather will be good. Tharps steered for a 2nd place finish on 11-27 and this was his choice over the 3/10.
7-Firenado (5/2)-This 4-year has won 2 straight and has looked good doing it. The only blemish was breaking stride in its CalX debut. Best to respect for a 3-peat, there's no one to be afraid of and Plano does the steering.
9-Roll To The Beach (6-1)-The Castillo trainee likes to take pictures winning 7 of 15 starts and faced tougher at Aces. The sticking point is making breaks in the first 2 races here, which was uncharacteristic. Hasn't raced since 11-25 but drops and drew off by 6 lengths in a 12-16 qualifier. Looks worthy of a swing at the morning line price.

Race 12

3-Major Mac (5/2)-This Johnson stable entry put in 2 flat lines when racing on a fast track at the beginning of the meet. But broke at the start in both recent races. Did get back on stride in last and came with a big effort to finish a close 2nd. Bumps up slightly and could be tough to beat on a dry surface.
7-Thisishowwedoit (7/2)-Finished 3rd last time about a length behind the one above. That was his 1st start since 9-11, should be better after a race over the surface and chances improve with an honest pace.

0.20 Pick 4

5,8,9/3,7,8,10/4,7,9/3,7
Total Bet=$14.40

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