First Post:

1:30 pm ET; final day of 2023 meeting

Extra Juice:

$10 Money-Back Special on all races. Up to $10 back if your win bet finishes 2nd, 3rd when you play with Xpressbet or 1/ST BET

Where Do We Stand:

Sunday’s lone best bet to make the gate was a winner, Seisai (paying $16.42 in Race 5). That makes us 14: 3-1-4 on the meeting with $35.46 in $2 win returns and an overall profit of nearly 27%. With five money-back special refunds if you’re playing with Xpressbet or 1/ST BET, the plays are 3-for-9 for the same $35.46 back, nearly doubling the bankroll needed to make each play at the meet. No matter what happens today, we wind up with a flat-bet profit. Let’s add on.

Featured Races:

Race 8 – $500,000 Juvenile Sprint Stakes
Race 9 – $500,000 Untapable Stakes

Betmix Stat of the Day:

From the 66 races at the current Kentucky Downs meeting, maidens have produced an average winner of 5.73-1, allowance races 6.99-1 and stakes 9.61-1. Trainer Rusty Arnold has the only barn to win multiple races with horses 10-1 or more, capturing $46 and $48 longshot scores.

Jeremy’s Best Bets:

Race 1 (1:30 pm ET)

#9 Dr. Ray D. (8-1 ML)

Trainer Mike Maker has run only 3 two-year-old maidens at the meet with Saratoga experience like this one, netting two wins and a third-place finish. He’s won a trio of 2-year-old maiden special weights at the meet from 9 starters overall, best of any barn. Love the sprint-route-sprint form cycle, bringing added stamina, and there’s a bullet workout since leaving the Spa. On this same front, don’t sleep on #10 Sherriff Joe in Race 2 for a potential Maker daily double.

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Race 5 (3:41 pm ET)

#7 Pray for Champagne (15-1 ML)
Mentioned above that Rusty Arnold has had a longshot hook this meet on a few occasions, and don’t be surprised if this disappointing debut beaten favorite doesn’t wake up immediately in start two. Few trainers in America are more proficient at improving from the first to second start as Arnold. He’s 22% second-time out since the start of 2021 with a $1.62 ROI for every $1 bet. Compare that with just 6.7% and $0.98 ROI with first-time starters during the same span.

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Race 10 (6:28 pm ET)

#12 Agent (20-1 ML)
Longshot look in the meet send-off is filly by Astern, a sire with limited starters at Kentucky Downs but some notable success. There’s a $21 winner, a runner-up and a 12-1 show runner from just 7 starters to date, while trainer Paulo Lobo has won with 3 of his last 4 older maidens to start at Kentucky Downs in 2022-’23. This one’s first two starts are competitive vs. these if she can get back to them.