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Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday, October 14, 2023

by Jeremy Plonk

October 13, 2023

Saturday’s Keeneland card includes a spectacular renewal of the Grade 1 $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, dripping with international intrigue. It’s part of the late pick four sequence in which 1/ST BET and Xpressbet players can share in a $2,000 Hit & Split promotion.

Keeneland | Race 7 | 4:12 pm ET | allowance
#3 Kitten Mischief’s mama Kitten’s Point won the mile and one-half Dowager Stakes here to close her career and her developing 4-year-old son has run well over this course in the past. #1 Nineeleventurbo continues to impress after seven straight exacta finishes, including the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap last out for longtime turf ace conditioner Neil Drysdale. Good pairing with Flavien Prat. Dubai export #4 Sharar has a hot jockey and trainer at the meet and comes off a wake-up effort at Kentucky Downs, a key locale leading into Keeneland turf allowances.

Keeneland | Race 8 | 4:44 pm ET | allowance
Good options about in this 3-year-old filly sprint. #11 Rarify was awesome here last year and the extended layoff should not be a major concern as often as Wesley Ward wins races off works alone. #10 Accede finally gets back to a true dirt sprint, which she excelled at to open her career. #2 Pumpkin Scone ran off and hid at Ellis Park last time and will the one to catch. #9 Zeitlos is a Curlin filly fast enough to compete early and classy enough to hand late while moving back from turf-to-dirt. #6 Rosie’s Alibi has scads of pedigree, adds Lasix off the layoff and goes for a hot Todd Pletcher barn that cannot be overlooked at the meet.

Keeneland | Race 9 | 5:16 pm ET | Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
European Group 1 standouts #4 Mawj, #2 Elusive Princess and #8 Elounda Queen bring top credentials and any of them would be no surprise to be best Saturday. But the QE2 historically has been kind to early speed and New York form. I expect Irad Ortiz Jr. to be very aggressive on the Chad Brown-trained #11 Prerequisite. If she gets a first-over trip right behind Heavenly Sunday, look out.

Keeneland | Race 10 | 5:48 pm ET | allowance
#1 First Mission returns for the first time since being scratched from the Preakness Stakes in May. The 3-year-old had future star written all over him at Fair Grounds this spring and beat a stellar group in Keeneland’s Lexington over this same trip in April, downing eventual Pacific Classic winner Arabian Knight and Travers runner-up Disarm. Brad Cox’s horses are exceptional in Keeneland 1-1/16 miles races where that prototypical re-break at the top of the lane delivers all they need with the sixteenth pole finish line the achievable end target.

The Ticket:
3,1,4 with 11,10,2,9,6 with 11,4,2,8 with 1 = $30 for each $.50