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Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Breeders Crown Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, October 27, 2023

by Al Cimaglia

October 27, 2023

ALSO: For more Breeders Crown coverage, see Al Cimaglia's Video Preview.

FREE Official track program and past performances from Hoosier Park.

This is opening night for Breeders Crown weekend at Hoosier Park. There are four Championships which are carded as Races 10-13. Those races comprise a Pick 4 sequence that has a $40,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10-2-Year-Old Filly Trot Championship-$700,000 Purse (9:28 PM EST)

1-Soiree Hanover (5/2)-This daughter of Walner has won 3-straight and has the top earnings in the field ($436,175). Doesn't have big gate speed and drawing the 1-hole may not help a lot. Regular pilot Tim Tetrick is the great equalizer. He knows when to push the button on this filly, and she can gobble up ground coming down the lane.
4-Warrawee Michelle (2-1)-This is another of many strong entries by the Ake Svanstedt stable for this weekend. This gal isn't flashy but has good tactical speed to be put into a position to get an efficient trip. Knows how to seal the deal when that happens and appears to be peaking at the right time.

Race 11-2-Year-Old Colts & Geldings Pace Championship-$700,000 Purse (9:55 PM EST)

2-Captain Albano (4/5)-The race probably goes through the Noel Daly pupil and so far, he shows no flaws. But the Captain will not get any respect tonight and there could be a hot pace. This is the probable winner but not willing to single.
3-Better Is Nice (5-1)-My guess is the connections were looking to qualify and not necessarily win last week. My thinking is based on being 10 lengths back at the first call and didn't really start to roll until the back half. The Alagna freshman is handy and versatile. Andrew McCarthy has options and this colt can pass foes down the lane. The McCarthy brothers could come 1-2, and this colt may run his best race at the right time.

Race 12-2-Year-Old Filly Pace Championship-Purse $700,000 (10:21 PM EST)

2-Geocentric (4/5)-The unbeaten daughter of Sweet Lou will likely be a single for many playing this sequence, and that thinking is understandable. Tim Tetrick might be forced to get on the point early and my view is others aren't going to being shooting for a 2nd place finish. If she gets too much respect she wins and could do so anyway, but my gut says it won't be a layup.
8-My Girl EJ (8-1)-This is a fast filly and will need things to fall into place to win. She also seemed to be on the right line on the turns, especially on the first turn in the Elimination. Mr. Burke may need to tinker with the equipment a bit and Dexter Dunn will need a better steer than he provided last week. Both can happen and if this gal is close enough to the leader at the top of the lane she could make it very interesting at a solid price.

Race 13-2-Year-Old Colts & Geldings Trot Championship-Purse $700,000 (10:50 PM EST)

1-Karl (7/5)-From a betting standpoint using 2 very short prices in a sequence where there could be another big favorite winning isn't usually a good idea. But my thinking is the majority of the play will be on TCI who has the longer and better resume. Karl could go off at a higher price than the morning line. Although Karl doesn't always look smooth on the track this will be only his 8th race and he has only one loss. According to the morning line the public will be almost split, my thinking is different and if Karl wins it will definitely add some pop to the Pick 4 payout.
5-TCI (6/5)-This is one fine 2-year-old who has only lost once, in his first start of the year. The Burke pupil can end up being the top money earning two-year-old pacer or trotter of either sex with a win. That record held by Redskin in 1986 is $1,407,263. So, there is no argument that holds much water in saying TCI is not a use in this race. But he was fortunate to be able to make a huge rally after breaking at the start of the Mohawk Million. Lucky meaning the pace was slow enough that he could get in reach of the leaders at the top of the lane to win. Not to be overlooked, is he was good enough to win. When he faced Karl, he got the pocket trip and won by a nose. All things being equal he probably wins again but Karl has more than a puncher's chance.

$1.00 Pick 4

1,4/2,3/2,8/1,5
Total Bet=$16

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