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Jeremy Plonk: Penn National Stakes Analysis | Wednesday, November 22, 2023

by Jeremy Plonk

November 21, 2023

Wednesday night’s Penn National card includes a trio of stakes races in succession in Races 5-7. The card kicks off at 6:00 pm ET with the first stakes set for 7:57 pm ET.

Here’s how I see each of the tri-features:

Penn National // Race 5 // Chocolate Town Stakes

#6 Crazy Legs Hirsch (7-2 ML)
#3 Colonel Bowman (2-1 ML)
#1 Egot a Poker Face (8-1 ML)

Comments: Sprinters like Colonel Bowman, Tra Lad and Crazy Legs Hirsch make for a difficult evaluation over a mile around two turns. Even so, the pace doesn’t seem all that hot, which could make extending the trip more possible. Angel Rodriguez is far and away the track’s top rider this year in dirt mile races at 31% and pairs nicely with Crazy Legs Hirsch, who did win a route at Delaware last time to prove he can get the trip. I like his 11-39 career record with 22 exacta finishes. Egot a Poker Face has some patience to pounce late at a fair price for the exotics.

Penn National // Race 6 // Susquehanna Valley Stakes

#2 Sofia’s Secret (9-2 ML)
#6 Will Or Won’t (5-1 ML)
#5 Swan Point (10-1 ML)

Comments: Will Or Won’t wheels right back for the same connections tabbed in Race 5, trainer Tim Kreiser and top local dirt mile pilot Angel Rodriguez. But her included, this race feels like it has too much pace to be won up top. Look for a late-running threat. Laurel-based Sofia’s Secret has some ability to sit and finish, which will be effective here for high-percentage Maryland connections. Strong lean here. Swan Point should be picking up tired horses late, but feels more like an exacta, trifecta inclusion than a winner.

Penn National // Race 7 // Shamrock Rose Stakes

#1 Carmelina (3-1 ML)
#2 Rock N Reward (8-1 ML)
#11 Chublin (9-2 ML)

Comments: Rail speed Carmelina also has a foundation edge on these, so if she pops and makes the front, it’s going to take an effort we don’t see on paper from any of these to outrun her. There are several strong sires here that have had Penn National success, including Warrior’s Reward (Rock N Reward), Paynter (Back Forty), Bourbon Courage (Plus Sized Courage), Hey Chub (Chublin) and Munnings (Paula’s Surprise).