by 1/ST BET
December 15, 2023
Turfway’s Friday card has a late pick 5 carryover of $118,541 and begins in Race 5.
To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.
You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.
Race 5
#5 Fort Thomas (18% Win Projection) 9-2 ML
#14 Brilliant Man (11% Win Projection) 6-1 ML
Comments: Seven-point advantage for #5 Fort Thomas is second-largest in the pick five tonight and the cluster of lower-percentage contenders under him make for a reasonable case to single. Consider eight different horses are slotted between 6% and 9%. #14 Brilliant Man is slightly higher than that mass of contenders, but his addition to Fort Thomas doubles the cost of the ticket alone, a legit consideration.
Race 6
#6 Generation (21% Win Projection) 5-2 ML
#8 Lead Actor (17% Win Projection) 4-1 ML
#2 Texcoco (15% Win Projection) 6-1 ML
Comments: The field size of 9 is smallest in the sequence tonight and that will entice many players to narrow their ticket in this spot to fewer contenders. But the algorithm matches three of them above the rest and within striking distance of one another that make them worthy to include. #6 Generation could be slightly overbet in this pick five because of likely favoritism in the smallest field size, offering increased value on Lead Actor and Texcoco despite similar chances.
Race 7
#6 Night Time (17% Win Projection) 10-1 ML
#3 Oceanic (16% Win Projection) 5-1 ML
#7 Voodoo Zip (11% Win Projection) 30-1 ML
Comments: The numbers suggest a nearly even tab up top between #6 Night Time and #3 Oceanic, but when you have a 30-1 morning line looming in double-digit Win Projection territory, that’s the kind of horse who can blow this ticket payoff to the moon. This is the race that would separate 1/ST BET from the public as 5-2 morning line chalk #5 Outadore musters only a 9% chance.
Race 8
#13 Vogelsang (19% Win Projection) 10-1 ML
#2 Jenny Lind (14% Win Projection) 9-2 ML
#1 Fearless Kristie (13% Win Projection) 9-2 ML
#8 Fortune Bound (12% Win Projection) 4-1 ML
Comments: The 7-2 morning line favorite #12 Efficacious attracted only a 2% Win Projection for trainer Brad Cox and that could open the floodgates as a serious underlay if the algorithm is correct. Despite a large field of 13 entered, we see four runners land in double-digit Win Projections, a high number showing separation from the pack. Use that quartet to upend the favorite.
Race 9
#12 Gotham Gray (24% Win Projection) 2-1 ML
Comments: With the highest win projection in the sequence and a sizable 10-point spread to the next-closing rival, the finale’s top choice #12 Gotham Gray is the sequence’s most logical single. Alternates in the event of a scratch include #7 Honeytown (14%) and #10 Kingmaking (10%).
The Ticket:
5,14 with 6,8,2 with 6,3,7 with 13,2,1,8 with 12 = $36 for a $.50 play