New Year’s Day offers official birthday wishes to all Thoroughbreds, including the all-important third birthday to the prospects on the Triple Crown trail. This will be the 19th season of my Countdown to the Crown weekly scouting report, which publishes each Friday at Countdowntothecrown.com. Be sure to check out the previews, reviews, top-20 and more in the industry’s most comprehensive look at the lead-ins.

Before we get to Friday’s first scouting report, we’ve got a couple of Monday stakes that are worth our attention. I’m never one to avoid a good handicapping challenge or accept an even better bet. So let’s get to work on the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream and Smarty Jones at Oaklawn.

Gulfstream Park | Race 10 | $150,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes

This one-turn mile starts the Gulfstream sophomore series with two-turn affairs lined up next in the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. The eight entrants have three combined stakes starts, including a pair of listed runners-up; so this is a proving ground as much as anything.

Among the trio of snowbirds traveling south for the first are Otello, a debut Aqueduct winner for Christophe Clement with a flashy Curlin-Isabella Springs pedigree; First World War, fourth in the Grade 2 Bourbon on turf and an allowance runner-up on dirt at Churchill for Brendan Walsh; and unbeaten sprinter Boy Magic, a Jorge Delgado trainee with scores at Delaware and Pimlico around summer’s end.
Five others in the field have already run in Florida, including Dec. 9 one-turn mile allowance 1-2 finishers Inveigled (Jane Cibelli) and Sea Streak (Eddie Owens Jr.). The other local of note is No More Time (Jose Francisco D’Angelo), a second-out maiden romper over this same trip.

Otello got quite an education in his Aqueduct debut, breaking sharp, settling nicely and then traveling behind horses for an extended period before waring down a Rick Dutrow-trained pacemaker to win by a neck. He’s got a bullet workout at Payson Park and lures Luis Saez with Joel Rosario on the road to ride at Oaklawn for the day.

First World War comes out of a very live race behind the talented Bill Mott multiple Churchill winner Parchment Party. The War Front colt began on turf, ran well with a win at Kentucky Downs and narrow loss in Keeneland’s Bourbon, but showed his damside dirt influence with that third outing at CD. His mama Sundaysatthebeach also was trained by Walsh and was runner-up in the Indiana Oaks on dirt.

My projection is the betting runs through the two shippers, Otello and First World War (despite Inveigled being the 9-5 morning line favorite), and I have no knocks against either. My play, however, is Sea Streak at 5-1 morning line. He can turn the tables on Inveigled at an inflated price after a very spotty run Dec. 9. He broke well, settled, and then seemed to lose interest and contact on the turn, only to re-rally for the place money as the beaten favorite. His win at Aqueduct prior was highly legit, beating a $425K purchase for Chad Brown and a $1 million Shug McGaughey colt who since has won at Gulfstream on December 17.

The play: Win #8 Sea Streak. Exacta Key-Box 8 with 3,4.

Oaklawn Park | Race 9 | $300,000 Smarty Jones Stakes

The Smarty Jones extends its trip from its former one-mile distance to 1-1/16 miles for the first time. That means the full stretch run and traditional finish line will be in play, providing a bit more test than this race has traditionally. It’s the kickoff to the Oaklawn series that follows with the Southwest, Rebel, Arkansas Derby and Bathhouse Row Stakes for Triple Crown hopefuls. The field of nine includes three for trainer Brad Cox and a pair for Steve Asmussen.

But it’s the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Just Steel (pictured above) who is 9-5 morning line favorite and the lone stakes winner in the lineup. Just Steel’s quick win in the 6-1/2 furlong Ed Brown at Churchill Downs was the Justify colt’s career-best performance. But his prior third in a CD allowance has proven a key race (finishing behind next-out Springboard Mile winner Otto the Conqueror and next-out Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club victor Honor Marie). Just Steel set the pace and wilted in the 1-1/16 miles Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his lone route try from seven starts, providing the key question with his return to that trip Monday.

Cox has saddled the Smarty Jones winner two of the last three years, namely Victory Formation in 2023 and Caddo River in 2021. His trio to start 2024 includes Catching Freedom, a $575,000 son of Constitution and Beldame third-place finisher Catch My Drift, coming out of a promising Churchill allowance; Gettysburg Address, another Constitution colt who was fourth in the Grade 3 Street Sense at CD; and Fidget, a two-turn winner on turf and dirt this year at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The latter pair was slated to run in December in Remington Park’s Springboard Mile, but were scratched for what was reportedly dubbed a medication miscommunication by the trainer. My preference is to Catching Freedom, who had a nightmare final three-sixteenths of a mile in his allowance bid in Louisville behind highly reputed Bill Mott trainee Parchment Party, Monday’s Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park participant First World War and fellow Smarty Jones rival Lagynos.

Lagynos is one of two here Asmussen. While he’s won over 1-1/16 miles, he did so on a very soft pace that may have carried his sprinter’s pedigree farther than it should. He’s by Kantharos and out of an accomplished turf sprint mare. Joel Rosario rides here (and not Otello in Gulfstream’s Mucho Macho Man Stakes the same day). Asmussen also has Informed Patriot in the Smarty Jones, third in the Street Sense just ahead of Monday rival Gettysburg Address. But I’m against the Street Sense form, a race that went slower than a same-day stakes for the 2-year-old fillies and whose alumni have failed to deliver in subsequent starts.

The Play: Win #2 Catching Freedom. Exactas 2-3 and 2-7 bigger, 2-9 smaller.