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Frank Carulli: Oaklawn Park Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, January 5, 2024

by Frank Carulli

January 4, 2024

Oaklawn Park’s 50-cent Late Pick 4 wager paid $13,342 last Friday, capped by 32-1 and 17-1 winners in the last two legs of the sequence. It could be more of the same this week, with 11 or more entries in each race. Here’s a closer look:

OP 6th race (3:55 p.m. EST -- Trainer Robertino Diodoro is 44-for-205 with first-off-the-claim runners the last three years at Oaklawn. He’s on an 0-for-10 run, however, with nine being dismissed at single-digit odds. TIM TAL could get the track’s 2023 leading conditioner back on the winning track. He ‘resisted outer challenges’ in a productive 7F race last out, but couldn’t stop winner Natural Harbor, who came back to finish second at odds-on in a $50,000 starter allowance at Aqueduct. Let’s make TIM TAL today’s solo play.

OP 7th race (4:24 p.m. EST) -- CRUSHED IT was favored in his 6F debut and ran well enough to win. He stalked the pace 3-wide from post 10, but lugged in a bit in the final eighth and couldn’t reach the winner, who set nearly identical inner fractions to a 5-1/2F stakes race for 2-year-olds on the same card. He’s bred to go long and is in the right hands to do so. GOLDBRICK set the pace and dueled from mid-turn to the finish in a near miss on the stretch out to one mile. The son of 2014 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents ($3 million) draws the rail, gets Lasix and is an obvious contender. If there’s an upsetter in the field, it could be MAJOR MACK, who worked forwardly for his debut but broke inward and tired in the same race where CRUSHED IT ran second. His sire won the 2019 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and his dam was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter who finished first or second in half of her starts.

OP 8th race (4:52 p.m. EST) -- EFFORTLESSLYELGANT won twice at Oaklawn early in the year with Santana aboard, set the pace in a pair of long-distance stakes races since then, was compromised by a bobbled start and rapid pace two back, now has post 11 to contend with off a recent :47.2 workout. All said, she is a must use. AUNT BECCA returned to her best form, winning the three-way battle for the lead but losing the war to the late-running winner last out at Churchill Downs. She figures tough on the cutback to her maiden-breaking and allowance-winning distance. LET’S BE CLEAR was no match for AUNT BECCA in her first start for a high-percentage claim barn, but she breezed 4F in :48.2 in her most recent workout and has the right running style to stalk-and-pounce for an upset run. MEGAN’S CLARA—favored in her last six starts -- romped off the claim at Oaklawn to begin a six-figure sophomore season. She disappointed last out but is worth a second look at an inflated price.

OP 9th race (5:22 p.m. EST) -- Half of the entrants in this $140,000 allowance are six-figure earners this year, with second favorite GUNFLASH poised to join the list. Their combined 6F record is 51/16-14-8. Take no chances with an ‘ALL’ punch on the ticket.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
OP 6th Race: 9
OP 7th Race: 1, 6, 7
OP 8th Race: 3, 5, 8, 11
OP 9th Race: ALL
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $72