The performance by Nash in the Dec. 23 Gun Runner Stakes had me gnashing my teeth. Why? I was so confident he was going to win that I was surprised and disappointed when he lost.

Nash’s Gun Runner defeat is why I have high anxiety in anticipation of his start this Saturday (Jan. 20) in Fair Grounds’ Grade III Lecomte Stakes at 1 1/16 miles.

Bet down to 1-2 favoritism in the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner, Nash raced fifth early in field of seven while five lengths or so off the pace. When Nash moved up to loom menacingly when getting within a length of the lead turning for home, it appeared to me that he was on his way to his first stakes victory. But then he lacked the needed punch in the lane and lost by three lengths while finishing third. Track Phantom won by 1 1/4 lengths at odds of 9-2, while Snead ran second at 9-1.

Nash gets his chance for revenge when he again faces Track Phantom in the Lecomte.

From the rail out, the Lecomte field consists of Next Level (30-1 on the morning line), Nash (5-2), Tizzy Indy (30-1), Can Group (6-1), Ethan Energy (4-1), Lat Long (8-1), Track Phantom (9-5) and Awesome Road (8-1).

Brad Cox trains Lecomte entrants Nash, Ethan Energy and Awesome Road.

Awesome Road is cross-entered in Saturday’s one-mile Leonatus Stakes at Turfway Park.

For whatever reason or reasons, the Nash who won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race by 10 1/4 lengths at Churchill Downs on Nov. 12 did not did show up in the Gun Runner. This regression is reflected by his Beyer Speed Figures for those two races.

The Nash who ran on Nov. 12 was credited with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. It was one of the highest figures during all of 2023 by a 2-year-old.

The Nash who ran on Dec. 23 received just an 84 Beyer, which matched the figure for his career debut, a 5 1/4-length loss to Booth in a six-furlong maiden sprint at Keeneland on Oct. 7.

The Lecomte is a very important race for Nash. Which Nash are we going to see? Will it be the Nash who walloped maidens in Louisville? Or will it be the Nash who disappointed in his New Orleans debut?

If we see the 97-ish Beyer version of Nash, he should win the Lecomte. And he’s not even the favorite on the morning line.

On the other hand, if we see the 84-ish Nash again, another defeat will likely be in the cards.

To be perfectly frank, this does not look like an especially strong renewal of the Lecomte. If Nash doesn’t win it, it will be awfully hard to picture the Kentucky-bred Medaglia d’Oro colt being draped in roses after the 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 4. And that would mean my Kentucky Derby future wagers on him that I possess almost certainly will be headed for the trash can. That’s why finding out whether Nash wins or loses the Lecomte is making me about as nervous as when I’m sitting in the waiting room at the dentist’s office.

When Nash let me down in Gun Runner, I thought back to how disappointed I was many moons ago when experiencing a huge disappointment the day that Gentlemen made his United States debut.

One afternoon between races at Hollywood Park in 1996, I asked Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella if he had any new horses from Europe or South America that he was excited about. He said that he had a horse from Argentina who “might be one of the best horses I’ve ever trained. His name is Gentlemen.”

Gentlemen had won four of six starts in Argentina. Three of his victories in that country came in the Group I Argentine Derby and two other Group I races.

Because of what Mandella told me and because of Gentlemen’s excellent record in Argentina, I made a large win wager on Gentlemen when he made his first U.S. start in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Hollywood Park on June 19, 1996.

I bet Gentlemen even though he was facing a very tough foe in Dramatic Gold, who had finished third in such Grade I events as the 1994 Breeders’ Cup Classic and 1995 NYRA (now Cigar) Mile.

In that 1996 allowance race, Dramatic Gold was sent away as the favorite at even money. Gentlemen was the 9-5 second choice

Gentlemen raced close up in third early, then vied for the lead on the far turn. I was expecting him to draw away in the stretch. But instead, he faltered. I was stunned to see him lose by 10 1/2 lengths while finishing sixth. Dramatic Gold won.

I could have understood it if Gentlemen had lost, especially since he was coming off a layoff and racing for the first time in this country. What I couldn’t understand was his defeat by such a large margin.

“How in the world can Richard Mandella be so wrong about a horse?” I wondered.

Well, Mandella wasn’t wrong. Gentlemen did turn out to be one of the best horses Mandella has ever trained.

Gentlemen recorded only an 81 Beyer Speed Figure in that allowance race won by Dramatic Gold. Gentlemen’s next 11 Beyers were 100, 106, 108, 118, 116, 115, 126, 121, 121, 101 and 109.

After Gentlemen’s 10 1/2-length defeat in his first U.S. start, he rebounded to win an allowance race on the grass at Del Mar and went on to win such Grade I races as the Hollywood Gold Cup and Pacific Classic.

Prior to Nash’s defeat in the Gun Runner, the Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh quoted Cox as saying “he’s the best [2-year-old] I got for sure.”

As I watched Nash lack a stretch kick in the Gun Runner, I thought, “If this really is Cox’s best 2-year-old, how does Nash not run any better than this?”

And now I am hoping Nash will rebound after his three-length loss in the Gun Runner in much the same way that Gentlemen rebounded after his disappointing U.S. debut.

I think it is interesting that despite Nash’s loss in the Gun Runner, only two horses at this time are listed at lower odds than his 16-1 in the Kentucky Derby future book at Circa in Las Vegas. Dornach is 12-1. Fierceness is 13-1. Gun Runner Stakes winner Track Phantom? He is 40-1.

Below are my Lecomte Stakes selections:

1. Nash
2. Track Phantom
3. Can Group
4. Ethan Energy

Will Track Phantom win the Lecomte and defeat Nash again? It certainly could happen. Track Phantom’s improving Beyer pattern of 74, 81, 88 and 89 indicates that the $500,000 auction purchase deserves much respect in the Lecomte.

After losing his first two career starts, Track Phantom has put together back-to-back victories. In his most recent start before the Gun Runner, the Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race by 4 3/4 lengths at Churchill Downs on Nov. 25.

There’s no arguing that Track Phantom looked good in his maiden win at Churchill. But truth be told, Nash ran considerably better when he earned his maiden diploma at that same track on Nov. 12.

In Track Phantom’s maiden score, his final time was 1:44.42 and his Beyer was 88. In Nash’s maiden win, his final time was 1:43.15 and his Beyer was 97.

Watch out for Can Group in the Lecomte. Trained by Hall of Famer Mark Casse, the Kentucky-bred Good Samaritan colt is switching back to the dirt for his 3-year-old debut after running well on the grass.

Can Group lost a pair of sprints on the dirt before winning a maiden race on the turf at Kentucky Downs in early September. His maiden victory was followed by a respectable fourth in the BC Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita on Nov. 3 in his final start at 2.

Ethan Energy finished sixth when unveiled in a maiden sprint at Keeneland on Oct. 22. The Kentucky-bred Uncle Mo colt then won a Fair Grounds maiden race by 5 1/2 lengths

MY KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10

BC Juvenile winner Fierceness continues to sit atop my Kentucky Derby Top 10. Trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, the Kentucky-bred City of Light colt is gearing up for Gulfstream Park’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 3.

Fierceness was timed in 1:01.17 for a five-furlong workout in Florida last Saturday at Palm Beach Downs.

“He worked super this morning and everything is going according to plan so far,” Pletcher was quoted as saying in a Fierceness update on Gulfstream Park’s website.

You can view Fierceness’ 1:01.17 workout on XBTV. 

That actually was a team drill consisting of Fierceness, on the inside, and the Pletcher-trained Locked, on the outside. Locked was clocked in 1:01.27.

Locked, who ranks No. 5 on my Top 10, is targeting the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10 for his first 2024 start. The Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt won the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity last Oct. 7 before finishing third as the 2-1 favorite in the Grade I BC Juvenile.

El Capi exits my Top 10 this week. He was No. 7 last week.

When debuting on Dec. 2 at Aqueduct, El Capi won a one-mile maiden race by 9 1/2 lengths on a muddy strip, a performance that produced a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. That performance was flattered when Conquest Warrior overcame a messy start and troubled trip to win a one-mile maiden race at Gulfstream last Saturday (Jan. 13). In Conquest Warrior’s only start prior to last Saturday, he ran third in El Capi’s maiden romp.

El Capi not only hasn’t had a published workout since Jan. 1, trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. said of him in the Aqueduct racetrack notes last Sunday (Jan. 14) that “you won’t see him on the [work] table for a bit -- maybe a couple of weeks.”

With El Capi seemingly dealing with some sort of issue, I’ve decided to drop him from my Top 10. He can always go back on once he resumes workouts.

Debuting at No. 9 on my Top 10 this week is Knightsbridge. Unlike the workout situation with El Capi, Knightsbridge recorded a recent four-furlong workout in :50.20 at Florida’s Payson Park last Friday (Jan. 12) for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

That was Knightsbridge’s first workout since he kicked off his racing career by registering a 10 1/2-length win in a seven-furlong maiden race at Churchill on Nov. 4. He received a 92 Beyer Speed Figure.

Knightsbridge is a colt by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist.

Nyquist also is the sire of two-for-two Nysos, who ranks No. 2 on my Top 10. When last seen under silks, Nysos was a ridiculously easy 8 3/4-length winner of Del Mar’s Grade III Bob Hope Stakes on Nov. 29.

Nysos worked six furlongs in 1:12.80 with a terrific gallop-out on Monday (Jan. 15) at Santa Anita for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

You can view Nysos’ 1:12.80 workout on XBTV. 

Nysos, on the outside, worked in company with Lake Superior, on the inside. Lake Superior, a $1,050,000 auction purchase trained by Baffert, lost both starts last year.

Lake Superior finished fourth in a one-mile maiden race on the grass Sept. 10 at Del Mar. The Quality Road colt then ran seventh in a one-mile maiden contest on the dirt Oct. 15 at Santa Anita, a race won by the Baffert-trained Wynstock, who would go on to win the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity.

Below is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10:

1. Fierceness
2. Nysos
3. Nash
4. Muth
5. Locked
6. Born Noble
7. Sierra Leone
8. Dornoch
9. Knightsbridge
10. Catching Freedom

Bubbling Under My Top 10: Book’em Danno, Carbone, Change of Command, Coach Prime, Conquest Warrior, Crimson Light, Drum Roll Please, El Capi, Exploration (scheduled to make his first career start in Fair Grounds’ eighth race this Saturday), First World War, Honor Marie, Imagination, Liberal Arts, Lightline, Maymun (scheduled to make his first career start in Santa Anita’s first race this Saturday), Otello, Otto the Conqueror, Parchment Party, Pilot Commander, Real Men Violin, Snead, Stretch Ride, The Wine Steward, Timberlake, Track Phantom, Tuscan Sky and Wynstock.

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERING

Fierceness is the 8-1 morning-line favorite among individual horses in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), which opens for betting this week at noon ET Friday (Jan. 19) and closes at 6 p.m. ET Sunday (Jan. 21).

The “all other 3-year-old colts and geldings” is listed with the lowest morning-line odds at 7-5 in KDFW Pool 3.

Horses trained at this time by Bob Baffert once again are not among the individual horses because he has been suspended from competing in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, as was the case in 2022 and 2023.

Churchill Downs announced this past Friday (Jan. 12) that “horses under the care of any trainer suspended from competing in the 2024 Kentucky Derby or 2024 Kentucky Oaks must be transferred to a non-suspended trainer by Jan. 29 to become eligible for the applicable race. Horses under the care of a suspended trainer will become eligible to earn qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby or Road to the Kentucky Oaks on a forward-looking basis after the transfer is complete so long as the transfer is complete by the Jan. 29 deadline.”

The inclusion of such talented Baffert-trained runners as Nysos and Muth adds to the appeal of the “all other 3-year-old colts and geldings” option in this week’s KDFW Pool 3, though again it must be remembered that Baffert trainees have to be transferred by Jan. 29 in order to become eligible to earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points.

Those last year who bet the “all other 3-year-old colts and geldings” option in KDFW Pool 3 ended up cashing at odds of 2-1 when Mage won the Run for the Roses. At the time KDFW Pool 3 closed on Jan. 22 last year, Mage had not yet raced. Mage did not make his career debut until he won a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park by 3 3/4 lengths at odds of 11-1 on Jan. 28. Mage’s odds the day he won the Kentucky Derby were 15-1.

Mage joined Justify as the only Kentucky Derby winners who did not race at 2 since Apollo accomplished the feat when he won the roses in 1882.

In my opinion, it’s really not a good idea in January to be betting a horse at relatively low odds to win the Kentucky Derby so far down the road on the first Saturday in May. Keep in mind that there are no refunds in the KDFW.

Rather, I think you should be looking to bet a horse or horses you like at relatively high odds. For instance, three horses I plan to put money on if they stay anywhere near their KDFW Pool 3 morning-line prices are Sierra Leone at 30-1, Knightsbridge at 50-1 and Born Noble at 60-1.

Sierra Leone, a $2.3 million auction purchase trained by Chad Brown, narrowly lost Aqueduct’s Grade II Remsen Stakes when finishing second to Dornoch on Dec. 2.

Dornoch, a full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage, is 20-1 on the morning line for this week’s KDFW Pool 3. Even though only a scant nose separated Dornoch and Sierra Leone at the end of the Remsen, Sierra Leone’s morning-line price of 30-1 is quite a bit higher than Dornoch’s 20-1. At 30-1 or thereabouts, I think Sierra Leone definitely is worth betting.

Hall of Famer Bill Mott trains Knightsbridge. In his lone start to date, the colt by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist raised eyebrows when he won a seven-furlong maiden race by 10 1/2 lengths at Churchill Downs on Nov. 4.

Last Friday (Jan. 12), Knightsbridge had his first published workout since his maiden victory. He worked four furlongs in :50.20 at Florida’s Payson Park. Now that he has had a workout, Knightsbridge debuts on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week at No. 9. I’m certainly interested in betting him in KDFW Pool 3 at anywhere around 50-1.

Born Noble, trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, made quite a splash when unveiled in a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream on Dec. 30. A $725,000 auction buy, the Kentucky-bred Constitution colt won by a widening 5 1/2 lengths as a 6-5 favorite despite racing greenly in the lane.

Inasmuch as I have Born Noble ranked at No. 6 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10, you can bet that I’ll be playing him in KDFW Pool 3 should he be anywhere close to his 60-1 price on the morning line. Why do I find Born Noble’s price so attractive? Compare it to the KDFW Pool 3 morning-line odds for Locked, who I rank just one notch above Born Noble at No. 5. Locked is 15-1 on the KDFW Pool 3 morning line. There is a gigantic difference between 15-1 and 60-1.

If you do plan to make any bets in this week’s KDFW Pool 3, you may want to keep an eye on what happens in Fair Grounds’ Grade III Lecomte Stakes this Saturday (Jan. 20).

Nash is 30-1 on the KDFW Pool 3 morning line. If he wins the Lecomte, his KDFW Pool 3 odds no doubt will plummet, which would not make him an attractive play in my eyes. And if Nash doesn’t win the Lecomte, then I wouldn’t be interested in betting him in KDFW Pool 3 at any price.

Below are the morning-line odds for 2023 KDFW Pool 3:

No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)

1. Amante Bianco (60-1)
2. Ari’s Magic (99-1)
3. Book’em Danno (80-1)
4. Born Noble (60-1)
5. Carbone (60-1)
6. Cardinale (80-1)
7. Catching Freedom (40-1)
8. Change of Command (60-1)
9. Conquest Warrior (40-1)
10. Deterministic (99-1)
11. Dornoch (20-1)
12. Drum Roll Please (40-1)
13. El Capi (50-1)
14. Ethan Energy (60-1)
15. Fierceness (8-1)
16. Forever Young (30-1)
17. Honor Marie (30-1)
18. Imperial Gun (99-1)
19. Just Steel (80-1)
20. Knightsbridge (50-1)
21. Lat Long (99-1)
22. Liberal Arts (80-1)
23. Locked (15-1)
24. Merit (99-1)
25. Nash (30-1)
26. Otello (99-1)
27. Otto the Conqueror (99-1)
28. Parchment Party (40-1)
29. Real Men Violin (80-1)
30. Resilience (99-1)
31. Sierra Leone (30-1)
32. Snead (50-1)
33. Stretch Ride (50-1)
34. Stronghold (99-1)
35. The Wine Steward (50-1)
36. Timberlake (25-1)
37. Time for Truth (99-1)
38. Track Phantom (60-1)
39. Tuscan Sky (99-1)
40. All Other 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings (7-5)

FIRST REPORTED FOAL FOR FLIGHTLINE

The great Flightline was represented by his first foal last Saturday (Jan. 13), a filly out of Grade I winner Juju’s Map.

Albaugh Family Stables announced the arrival of the foal via a social media posting on X (formerly Twitter), which said: “Juju’s Map welcomed her first foal, a filly by Flightline, into the world last night. We are so excited, and we are happy to say that Juju and her baby are doing great! Juju’s Map, a grade 1 winner, and Flightline, the undefeated champion, produced a gorgeous looking filly.”

Juju’s Map won three of eight lifetime starts. Her most significant triumph came in the Grade I Alcibiades Stakes. She’s by Liam’s Map, who in 2015 won the Grade I Woodward Stakes and Grade I BC Dirt Mile.

Flightline, impeccably trained by John Sadler, was retired from racing after being voted 2023 Horse of the Year. A son of Tapit, Flightline won all six of his career starts by a combined 71 lengths.

In what many considered a Secretariat-like performance, Flightline won the Grade I Pacific Classic at Del Mar by 19 1/4 lengths in 2023. Flightline then closed out his undefeated racing career with a record 8 1/4-length victory in the Grade I BC Classic of 2023 at Keeneland.

Flightline is No. 1 on my list of the Top 100 Thoroughbreds of the 21st century so far to have won a race in North America:

1. Flightline
2. American Pharoah*
3. Zenyatta
4. Arrogate
5. Ghostzapper
6. Curlin
7. Rachel Alexandra
8. Justify*
9. Shared Belief
10. California Chrome
11. Tiznow
12. Gun Runner
13. Invasor
14. Wise Dan
15. Point Given
16. Goldikova
17. Beholder
18. Enable
19. Barbaro
20. Smarty Jones
21. Bernardini
22. Azeri
23. Lava Man
24. Bricks and Mortar
25. Rags to Riches
26. Candy Ride
27. Blame
28. Pleasantly Perfect
29. Kona Gold
30. Mineshaft
31. Saint Liam
32. Intercontinental
33. Ouija Board
34. Life Is Good
35. Knicks Go
36. Authentic
37. Tepin
38. Essential Quality
39. Afleet Alex
40. Songbird
41. Monomoy Girl
42. Xtra Heat
43. Game On Dude
44. Mucho Macho Man
45. Empire Maker
46. Congaree
47. Conduit
48. I’ll Have Another
49. Kitten’s Joy
50. Roses in May
51. Blind Luck
52. Havre de Grace
53. Royal Delta
54. Big Brown
55. Lost in the Fog
56. Midnight Bisou
57. Cape Blanco
58. Gio Ponti
59. Lookin At Lucky
60. English Channel
61. Medaglia d’Oro
62. Tiz the Law
63. Midnight Lute
64. Street Sense
65. Discreet Cat
66. Lawyer Ron
67. Nyquist
68. Ashado
69. Monarchos
70. Quality Road
71. Fantastic Light
72. Flintshire
73. High Chaparral
74. Lady Eli
75. Funny Cide
76. Rock Hard Ten
77. Raven’s Pass
78. Maximum Security
79. Frosted
80. Gamine
81. Unique Bella
82. Uncle Mo
83. City of Light
84. Accelerate
85. Mitole
86. Groupie Doll
87. Lemon Drop Kid
88. Runhappy
89. Aptitude
90. Commentator
91. Lido Palace
92. Sightseek
93. Surfside
94. Sistercharlie
95. Fort Larned
96. Street Cry
97. Left Bank
98. Vino Rosso
99. Animal Kingdom
100. Roy H

*Triple Crown winner