Saturday’s Arkansas Derby Day card is the biggest raceday of the year at Oaklawn Park. Triple Crown prospects historically have lined up for the Arkansas Derby and this year should be no exception. The program is bolstered by Kentucky Oaks prospects in the Fantasy Stakes as well as the Oaklawn Mile and the Matron Stakes. They’ll go Races 9-12 with rock-solid field sizes of 8x10x12x10.

Betmix stats indicate favorites are 13-for-29 this season at Oaklawn, winning 44.8% (including 6 of 11 offerings since February 24).

Race 9 // $500,000 Grade 3 Oaklawn Mile

Notable: There’s a real “Then and Now” feel to this lineup, which includes $2.2 million earner #6 Last Samurai and fellow millionaires #5 Necker Island and #8 Silver Prospector. Last Samurai won the 2022 Oaklawn Handicap, but has been away since Saratoga last summer and reappears now with a new trainer in Eddie Milligan. Necker Island is just 2 for his last 18 and both wins came at Ellis Park. Silver Prospector’s last stakes win came 22 months ago. The fresher faces may be the way to go, including rail-drawn sprinter #1 Nautical Star on the stretch-out as well as two-time OP meet allowance winner #4 Midnight Rising. Silver Prospector offers better current form among the veterans and should factor though will be challenged some by the post draw.

Race 10 // $250,000 Matron Stakes

Notable: #10 Hoosier Philly returns from a Breeders’ Cup Distaff layoff in this 6-furlong sprint in what has to be considered a season-starter. She hasn’t raced at such a short distance since her debut win at Churchill in 2022. A second X-factor is Santa Anita raider #8 Daddysruby. The Grade 1 La Brea winner has superb early speed and adds blinkers, meaning she could really cook up top here in a race that lacks a ton of other early speed. The top 3 finishers from the Feb. 24 Carousel Stakes at this same trip re-match, including #6 Zeitlos (pictured above), #1 Backyard Money and #4 Mucho Macho Girl. Don’t see the order reversing from that one, trusting Zeitos right back. Hard to see this one getting past #8 Daddysruby and #6 Zeitlos.

Race 11 // $750,000 Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes

Notable: The Road to the Kentucky Oaks found some definition last week with Tarifa’s victory in the Fair Grounds Oaks. But it’s not a deep division right now, giving Fantasy players a chance to really make their mark. Grade 3 Honeybee winner #11 Lemon Muffin was a 28-1 maiden when she won last out in her sixth start. Now she gets a difficult post and you have to trust she’s a breakout performer who is blossoming while taking a much shorter price. She might be; but that’s not a great gamble. #8 West Omaha disappointed in the Honeybee and needs a big bounceback effort, but not confident she delivers it. On the same level of concern, #12 Thorpedo Anna is terribly drawn for her return and there’s no givens that 2-year-old fillies develop over the winter and bring the same or better form with them. Wait and see. That leaves 2 players for me in the Fantasy. First, #1 My Mane Squeeze moves from 1-turn races and should be effective from the rail under Flavien Prat. Second, Santa Anita invader #5 Where’s My Ring has a versatile running style and won’t meet anyone here the quality of her last rival Kinza.

Race 12 // $1.5 million Grade 1 Arkansas Derby

Notable: Southwest winner #9 Mystik Dan and Rebel winner #2 Timberlake defend the local turf against west coast raider #7 Muth, the Bob Baffert-trained runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. All three bring strong credentials and surprisingly versatile running styles to adapt to most any pace flow. Mystik Dan has been the least consistent of that trio, but his top-line performance last time in the Southwest may have been the most eye-catching Kentucky Derby prep trail win this season – albeit on a wet track. You won’t see 11-1 this time, and there’s no rain in the weekend forecast for Hot Springs. So he’ll have to do it again on a dry track at a shorter price … pushing me elsewhere to gamble, though respecting his chances. The only challenge to the favored trio in my estimation is the talented closer #5 Liberal Arts. He finished with better-than-it-looks interest in the Southwest and has trained for this spot all season where the 9 furlongs will be up his alley. I’d demand at least 8-1 or more to beat all 3 of the main threats in here, but he’s the play and the key to my exactas with Muth and Timberlake.