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Frank Carulli: Pimlico Black-Eyed Susan Friday Late Pick 4 Analysis

by Frank Carulli

May 16, 2024

The 100th running of the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes will be the feature of an all-stakes 50-cent Pick 4 at Pimlico this Friday, May 17. No favorite has won the 1-1/8-mile test for 3-year-old fillies since 2011. Sophomore fillies will take center stage in the Grade 3 Miss Preakness to begin the sequence, followed by the $100,000 Very One Stakes on the turf and Grade 3 Pimlico Special. Here’s a closer look with a suggested $64 play:

PIM 10th race (4:07 p.m. EST) -- DISCREET OPS turned heads with a 7-3/4-length debut victory at 20-1 odds and impressed again in allowance company five months later. She raced close up under a snug hold, asserted herself between two rivals at the top of the stretch, took command at the eighth pole and galloped out strongly after winning. She gets an extra half-furlong in the Grade 3 Miss Preakness and is a must use at 12-1 on the morning line. MYSTIC LAKE set a ‘well measured’ pace and beat two next-out winners in a 6F allowance victory two back at Tampa Bay Downs. She was ‘hounded’ on the lead in a 7F stakes at Woodbine but held second behind the trip-sitting winner. She draws the rail with plenty of speed to her outside, but she’s worth using at 6-1 in her three-peat attempt on conventional dirt with Prat riding for the first time.

PIM 11th race (4:38 p.m. EST) -- KAUFYMAKER has made limited starts since she ran third against the boys in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. But she is 3-for-4 in allowance company and had what trainer Wesley Ward reportedly described as a ‘fantastic breeze’ at Keeneland to get ready for her seasonal debut at age 5 in the $100,000 Very One. FUTURE IS NOW went wire-to-wire in turf sprint victories at three venues and posted one of her three 92-plus Beyer speed figures when second in a stakes race, earning a long look for a high-percentage trainer-jockey tandem. PORT TOWNSEND is another longshot to consider. She’s 2-for-2 with Hernandez aboard, won on firm and soft footing and projects a dream stalking trip at 15-1. QUEEN OF THE MUD shifted 6-wide and rallied past the surprise leader when last seen winning a 5-1/2F allowance at Keeneland seven months ago for a good layoff barn.

PIM 12th race (5:10 p.m. EST) -- Hall of Fame trainers Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen send out the two favorites in their bid for a third victory in the $250,000, Grade 3 Pimlico Special. KINGSBARNS, the 7-5 morning-line choice as he nears millionaire status, showed his class and versatility in winning the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on the lead last year as a 3-year-old and the Grade 3 Ben Ali from off the pace in his second start this year at the same 1-3/16-mile distance of the Pimlico Special. Asmussen’s RED ROUTE ONE, fourth in last year’s Preakness, earned triple-digit Beyers in winning the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic at Fair Grounds and running third in the Oaklawn Handicap in his last two starts. The faster the pace, the better the chances for the late-running son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner.

PIM 13th race (5:44 p.m. EST) -- The featured $300,000, Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan turns 100 years old Friday. But will the 12-year run of losing favorites continue? The five runners listed 6-1 or lower on the morning line posted Beyer speed figures of 74-75-77-78-79 in graded stakes company since March 30, though none won. It’s an ‘ALL’ punch in the final leg of the sequence.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
PIM 10th Race: 1, 10
PIM 11th Race: 1, 3, 4, 10
PIM 12th Race: 2, 5
PIM 13th Race: ALL
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $64