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Frank Carulli: Colonial Downs Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, July 26, 2024

by Frank Carulli

July 25, 2024

Favorites won the last three races in Colonial Downs’ Late Pick 4 last Friday, but with a 14-1 winner in the leadoff leg, a winning ticket returned $474 for 50-cents. Big fields with all races scheduled for the turf make for a more lucrative payoff this week.

CNL 6th race (7:10 p.m. EST) -- MASSIF, stakes-placed as a 2-year-old at this distance, should show his class as today’s solo play in the leadoff leg of the sequence. He capped his freshman season with three allowance placings, then met the likes of Grade 2-placed Fulmineo (3-10, $254k on turf) and Grade 3-placed Battle of Normandy, who duplicated his career-best 90 Beyer in a next-out 2X allowance victory. If the race comes off the turf or if MASSIF scratches, replace him with longshot SHARP TONES (#3).

CNL 7th race (7:42 p.m. EST) -- FIRST TO ARRIVE added blinkers and sprinted to a commanding lead in a 7F dirt sprint, only to get caught at 18-1 odds. Her dam, In My Time, finished first or second in 8 of 10 starts on the lawn going a route of ground. THY NAME IS WOMAN, wide throughout in her debut from post 10, lost some momentum into the turn and ran willingly until late stretch. HAIL NO gets a longshot spot on the ticket off a :35-1/5 workout from the gate. Her dam was 21/4-2-5 on turf, a $173k earner and Grade 3-placed.

CNL 8th race (8:12 p.m. EST) -- Monmouth Park invader WHO KNOWS heads the list of three entrants who arrive off runner-up finishes at the $16,000 level. STARRYSTARRYKNIGHT pressed the pace to the stretch on Gulfstream Park’s all-weather track in a race that produced two winners and a runner-up with Beyers speed figures of 82, 67 and 83, respectively. The class droppers include INCINERATOR, who makes his turf sprint debut off a series of fast recent works; BLEDSOE, who hails from the 26-percent turf sprint barn of trainer Wesley Ward; and ORANGE JUICE, who starts at his fifth grass venue in as many starts. It adds up to an ‘ALL’ punch in the Pick 4.

CNL 9th race (8:42 p.m. EST) -- TRES FRANCAIS won ridden out as the 1-to-5 favorite and can use her speed well in a repeat attempt, but she beat a dreadful field and offers no value to the Pick 4, so try to beat her. LA TACHE, on the other hand, is appealing at a better price if she can avoid another troubled start. She ‘had aim’ on the leaders in mid-stretch two starts back for a higher claiming price at this distance but lacked late kick. The race produced a winner and two runners-up who averaged a 63 Beyer, a speed figure good enough to win here. AWARD TOUR broke her maiden on Presque Isle Downs’ synthetic track and ran second last out, but she debuted on turf before she was claimed and rallied for second behind Princess Aleska (5/2-1-2 on turf), who went wire-to-wire in an allowance race last month. HURRICANE BON followed the 3-wide move of the winning favorite and finished second two starts back, then rallied from post 10 into second for the stretch run but flattened out.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
CNL 6th Race: 4
CNL 7th Race: 3, 5, 8
CNL 8th Race: ALL
CNL 9th Race: 3, 5, 10
Cost: $36