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Saratoga Scouting Report: July 31-August 4, 2024

by Jeremy Plonk

July 30, 2024

Key Races

Wednesday | De La Rose (f/m turf mile), Kiser Memorial (steeplechase)

Thursday | G2 Glens Falls (f/m turf route)

Friday | G2 Hall of Fame (3yo turf), G2 Saratoga Oaks Invitational (3yo f turf)

Saturday | G1 Whitney (dirt route), G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational (3yo turf), G1 Test (3yo f sprint), G2 Troy (turf sprint), Lure (turf route)

Sunday | G3 Adirondack (2f sprint), Birdstone (dirt marathon)

Horsepower

Wednesday | ’23 G2 Ballston Spa winner Evvie Jets (R8 De La Rose Stakes)

Thursday | ’23 G1 Belmont Oaks Inviational winner Aspen Grove vs. ’23 G1 American Oaks runner-up Be Your Best (R3 ALW); ’24 G3 Bewitch winner Chop Chop, ’23 G2 Flower Bowl winner Parnac, ’24 G2 Sands Point winner Eternal Hope and defending champ ’23 G2 Glens Falls winner McKulick (R9 Glens Falls Stakes).

Friday | ’24 Federico Tesio winner Perform, ’24 G3 Pimlico Special third Harlocap (R3 ALW); ’24 G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational 1-2 finishers Cinderella’s Dream and Segesta re-matched (R8 G1 Saratoga Oaks Invitational); G3 Transylvania winner Neat (R9 G2 Hall of Fame Stakes).

Saturday | Deck of Cards goes for 6th straight win (R3 starter); ’24 G2 Pennine Ridge 1-2 finishers Legend of Time & White Palamino , ’24 G3 Meld (Ire) winner Diego Velazquez, ’24 G3 Gotham winner Deterministic, ’23 G1 Summer winner Carson’s Run (R7 G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational); ’23 G1 Spinawaway 1-2 finishers Brightwork & Ways and Means, ’24 G3 Victory Ride winner Emery, ’24 G2 Beaumont winner Denim and Pearls, ’24 G2 Eight Belles winner My Mane Squeeze (R7 G1 Test Stakes); ’24 G1 Jaipur winner and world-record setter Cogburn vs. ’22 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf sprint winner Mischief Magic (R10 G2 Troy Stakes); ’23 Preakness/’24 Pegasus World Cup winner National Treasure, ’23 G2 Alysheba winner First Mission, ’23 G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Bright Future, ’24 G2 Oaklawn Handicapper winner Skippylongstocking (R10 G1 Whitney).

Sunday | ’24 Schuylerville winner The Queens MG (probable G3 Adirondack, draws Wed.)

Extra Incentives

Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar

Tracking the Trends

-- Favorites won 15 of 51 races last week (just under 30%), keeping the 3-week meet even at 29% winning chalk.

-- Top jockeys during week 3 were Flavien Prat (7 wins, 21%), Jose Ortiz (5 wins, 23%) and John Velazquez (4 wins, 31%).

-- Leading trainers from Week 3 of the meet were Mike Maker (4 wins, 25%, + ROI), Bill Mott (4 wins, 27%, +ROI), Ray Handal (3 wins, 38%, + ROI) and John Ortiz (2-for-3, $30.80 and $48.60 winners).

-- Trainer Chad Brown was just 2-11 with favorites last week. He’s now 6-23 (26%) with favs at the meet.

-- Horses last raced at Churchill Downs have 31 wins at the current meet, winning at 21% for a $1.33 ROI for every $1 bet. The ROI is a whopping $2.19 in allowance races.