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Frank Carulli: Keeneland Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, October 18, 2024

by Frank Carulli

October 17, 2024

The sun set fast for bettors who played the Late Pick 4 at Keeneland last Friday. A pair of 22-1 winners wiped out most of the tickets in the $407,343 pool. But those who survived were rewarded with a $4,300 payout for a 50-cent wager and a share of one million reward points in 1/ST BET’s Hit & Split Promo. With 10 or more entrants in each race this Friday, Oct. 18, it could be more of the same. Here’s a look at the action:

KEE 7th race (4:12 p.m. EST) -- SERAPHIA, a $1 million sales buy, debuts from post 12 for Asmussen off a series of strong 5F workouts at Churchill Downs recently. The daughter of Hall of Fame inductee Gun Runner (12-19, $15.9 million) is out of the dam Temptress, who produced multiple graded stakes winner and millionaire Tenfold. MAP OUT’s work tab is comparable to Seraphia and she hails from a barn that had three wins and a second from its first five starters at the meet. Morning-line favorite NOSLEEPTILBROOKLYN showed marked improvement in her second start but lacked stretch kick against two next-out winners. BRAVE SAMANTHA was in range of the leaders for a half mile in two long sprints that produced MSW winners at Keeneland. She worked in :48-and-change twice since then and could be in the winning hunt longer in her third start. AMARTH, one of several runners bumped at the start in a heavily-bet debut, settled in mid-pack and made no impact after approaching the stretch in the 7-path. However, four rivals exited that race and finished out of the money, with a top Beyer of 56.

KEE 8th race (4:44 p.m. EST) -- HOWBOUTTHEMAPPLES was ‘out-finished’ when third in her last two grass sprints, but the $250k turf earner adds blinkers and could upgrade to a win, fresh off a :35-1/5, fastest-of-38 workout at Palm Meadows training center. GOLDEN HOSTESS, G-1 placed on the lawn in South Africa, shortens up to 5-1/2F and gets the class test for a barn that is 6-21 with North America arrivals. She gets Lasix, gets Gaffalione to ride and makes the ticket at a good price. PORT TOWNSEND won on firm and soft footing, from on and off the pace on the Fair Grounds lawn before she chased a fast pace and faded in a Grade 3 stakes last out.

KEE 9th race (5:16 p.m. EST) -- PARADISE CITY impressed in her debut at Gulfstream Park. She tucked in behind the pace-setting favorite, switched to the 2-path just in time and won a stretch-long duel against a rival who improved her Beyer speed figure by 19 points after a near miss first out. Her dam was a Grade 2-winning router and her trainer is 23 percent with the sprint-to-route and repeat angles. Make her today’s solo play in the Pick 4. (If she is scratched, use #1 QUINN’S PROMISE in her place.)

KEE 10th race (5:48 p.m. EST) -- Using several double-digit longshots in this one-mile turf allowance. SEA SINGER brushed the side of the stall, was in tight and steadied along the way and rallied to within 2 lengths of West Hollywood, who came back to win the Grade 3 Saranac by 5-1/2 lengths. WILL TAKE IT’S lone try on the turf was a good one. He benefited from a fast pace but sustained a stretch rally to just miss after he was floated to the 6-path. He finished behind a next-out stakes runner-up and ahead of two allowance winners. LEGITIMIZE made a successful trip from Tampa Bay Downs to Saratoga, setting the pace ‘under a hold’ and fending off the 2-to-5 favorite to remain perfect in two starts. SUMMER IN ADRIANE just missed in her lone turf route attempt and, despite drawing post 12, the son of multiple Grade 1-winning router Lemon Drop Kid (10-24, $3.2 million) can use his speed well in this spot. THOMAS AQUINAS can be closer to the pace from an inner post draw, too. He dug into the margin of the 2-1 winner in the stretch in a double-key grass route two back. FRONTLINE WARRIOR gets blinkers and gets a break from stakes company at his maiden-breaking distance. MOUNT RUNDLE, idle 14 months, ran okay off a long layoff last year and bid 4-wide to a brief stretch lead in a 1-1/4-mile marathon in his latest turf allowance.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket

KEE 7th Race: 2, 9, 10, 12
KEE 8th Race: 1, 4, 6
KEE 9th Race: 8
KEE 10th Race: 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12

Cost: $42