There certainly is no shortage of options when it comes to horizontal wagers on Breeders’ Cup Saturday. Whether it be an all-turf or all-dirt wager, a $1 Pick 6, or your traditional Pick 4, you can certainly find a way to leverage your strongest opinions. One of the more intriguing Pick 4’s over the two-day event is the sequence that gets started with the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Race 5) and concludes with the Breeders’ Cup Classic (Race 8). Here are my thoughts:

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 5: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Cogburn
Backups: 1 Believing; 12 Bradsell

Forecast: No doubt this year’s Turf Sprint goes through #9 Cogburn. The son of Not This Time has been simply incredible in 2024 rattling off three straight graded stakes wins for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. The 5YO drew favorably outside the other likely pacesetter in #5 Ag Bullet, which should give Irad Ortiz Jr. options out of the gate. It is difficult to poke holes in the chalk in this one, other than his likely price.

If Cogburn is to get beat, I would expect it to be from one of two European invaders. #12 Bradsell is the obvious one. The 4YO colt has rattled off a pair of Grade 1 victories in the United Kingdom before finishing second last out at Longchamp. He has plenty of experience in large fields and against the world’s best. #1 Believing is a bit more creative taking on the boys for trainer George Boughey. He is winless over his last four starts, but two of them are runner-up efforts to Bradsell. With Ryan Moore aboard, I will include at 12-1.


Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Awesome Result
Backups: 6 Raging Sea; 1 Candied

Forecast: Kentucky Oaks winner #2 Thorpedo Anna will be a very popular single in this sequence and deservingly so. The Fast Anna filly is nearly perfect on the year with her lone loss coming by a head to Fierceness in the Travers (G1) in late August. Not only does she bring the strongest resume into this year’s Distaff, but she appears to have a significant pace advantage as well. The Kenny McPeek trainee is hard to knock at first glance, but diving in deeper I am not sure that I am willing to swallow heavy chalk in this spot. Sure, she has a chance to jog on the lead, but she ran really hard at Saratoga this summer. It is no surprise she regressed significantly in the Cotillion (G1). Lots of horses bounce back after regressing off a big effort, but I just do not feel great about the way she is coming into this race combined with the intensity of her campaign. If she was 3-1, I might feel different.

#9 Awesome Result is the wild card. The Justify filly ships out of Japan for the first time a perfect 7 for 7 after her five-length score in the Breeders’ Gold Cup at Mombetsu in late August. We all know the success Japanese invaders have had at the Breeders’ Cup and this one finds a very soft bunch relative to other editions of the event.

Of the American-based runners, I like #6 Raging Sea most, but the Chad Brown trainee very well could be pace compromised. If the pace is honest though, she has proven she is highly likely to put in a strong late run. #1 Candied needs to run the race of her life, but perhaps the addition of blinkers will help her achieve that. At 15-1, I will include as a backup.


Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Turf
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5 Jayarebe; 10 Wingspan; 4 Luxembourg
Backups: None

Forecast: It is no surprise that International runners hold a strong hand in this year’s Turf led by 5-2-morning line choice #11 Rebel’s Romance. The 6YO gelding has rattled off 4 of 5 since disappointing as the 1-2-favorite in the Turf Classic (G1) at Aqueduct last October. The son of Dubawi is 14 for 21 in his career, but does not really stand out over his fellow Europeans, so I will take a swing against.

I like #5 Jayrebe most. The 3YO colt comes in off a head victory against Group 2 foes at Longchamp last month and appears to be sitting on a career best effort. I will also include #3 Shahryar who put in a big run at 25-1 in last year’s event, #4 Luxembourg who has just one win this year, but has earned over $3.2 million in his career, and #10 Wingspan who ships to the States off a strong second to Kalpana at Ascot on October 19.



Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Classic
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Forever Young
Backups: 7 Ushba Tesoro; 3 City of Troy

Forecast: One of the horses I am most looking forward to seeing run this weekend is #1 Forever Young. The Real Steel colt comes into the Classic 6 for 7 with his lone defeat coming when he was likely best in the Kentucky Derby. He was given plenty of time after his third-place effort in the “Run for the Roses” and had a perfect prep at Tokyo City before shipping to Southern California. The pace should be honest enough for him to run this group down in the lane.

Fellow Japanese runner #7 Ushba Tesoro merits major consideration as well, especially at his 12-1-morning line price. The hard-knocking 7YO comes in off a runner-up effort in Funabashi when he was unable to run down lone speed William Barrows. He lost little in defeat that day and should be rolling late again this year after finishing fifth at Santa Anita Park in 2023.

#3 City of Troy is one of the more difficult reads on the card. The son of Justify is 6 for 7 in his career with five Group 1 wins already under his belt, but has never competed over dirt. If he takes to the surface, he is likely to be tough to beat. That said, it is very difficult to swallow a short price in a spot like this with a horse who has never even competed over the surface. I will use him only with my price horses in the first three legs.


Good luck!