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Scott Shapiro: $10K Turkey Bowl Weekend Stakes Picks

by Scott Shapiro

November 27, 2024

At 1/ST BET and Xpressbet we are extremely thankful for all of the great customers we have, as well as the equine and human athletes who compete every day for our enjoyment. As part of our way of saying thank you, we are rolling back out our $10,000 Turkey Bowl Contest starting Thursday. Hit a $10 win bet on at least 10 of the stakes races listed on the promotions page and win your share of the five-figure prize pool. Just remember to register to become eligible.

Here are a few horses I will be including as part of my $10 Win wagers on Friday and Saturday:


Friday November 29:

Race 9, Gulfstream Park, Pulpit Stakes

A fun race to close the card at Gulfstream Park where the morning line choices appear a bit vulnerable. #2 Mi Bago returns to the races after shipping out west for a stakes event on the Breeders’ Cup undercard. He had some traffic issues early that day, but looks like more of a sprinter. #4 Hit That Review also has to prove himself at two-turns after breaking through in the fourth consecutive sprint to start his career. He ran well at Keeneland last out, but burnt a good deal of money in the two starts prior.

I like #1 Tank most despite failing to finish the deal last out in the $95,000 Armed Forces over this same course. He was coming back on very short rest after posting a career best performance in his dominant wire-to-wire victory over the all-weather in late October. Now, high-percentage trainer Carlos David has given him nearly a full month of rest and he draws favorably along the rail. Look for jockey Drayden Van Dyke to dictate early terms and have enough left late to seal the deal.

Play: #1 Tank


Saturday November 30:

Race 9, Churchill Downs. Golden Rod (G2)

The Road to the Kentucky Oaks continues on with this 8.5-furlong test for 2YO fillies where I have no desire in trying to beat #3 Good Cheer. The Godolphin homebred has passed all tests thus far with flying colors, including last out in the $200,000 Rags to Riches when she was bumped around at the start, but recovered nicely under Luis Saez and won going away as the odds-on choice. The extremely well-bred daughter of Medaglia d’Oro should get an honest pace to run at given the presence of stablemate #1 Eclatant, as well #4 Quietside and #6 My Lil Punky, However, if they do not go that fast early, she should have no problem being up a bit closer to the early pace and still finding her way to the wire first. Either way, I will take a likely winner where I can get one since I need to come up with ten by Sunday!

Play: #3 Good Cheer


Race 11, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Jockey Club (G2)

There is no doubt #2 Jonathan’s Way is the clear one to beat in this Road to the Kentucky Derby points race. The Ohio-bred was dominant on debut and backed it up with an impressive victory in the Iroquois (G3), but disappointed earlier this month in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He returns on relatively normal rest, but is anyone else concerned that this is a bit of an afterthought after the trip to Del Mar for the World Championships?

I am going to try to beat the Phil Bauer trainee with #4 Dapper Moon. The Louisiana-bred ran two big races to kick off his career this summer at Saratoga for trainer Dallas Stewart, including a five-length romp in his maiden braker in late August. Since returning to the Blue Grass State, the Malibu Moon colt has been up against it in both tries against graded stakes foes. First, in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) he was caught wide on a day where the rail was the clear place to be. Then, 22 days later in the Street Sense (G3) he ran well, but was in tight shortly after the first turn and moved a bit early in a race captured by a last-to-first winner. Hopefully, he can find a prominent spot early under Ricardo Santana Jr. and get a more favorable voyage in this third try against winners.

Play: #4 Dapper Moon

Best of luck and Happy Thanksgiving!!