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Frank Caruli: Oaklawn Pick 3 Analysis | Friday, December 20, 2024

by Frank Carulli

December 18, 2024

Looking for a last-minute Christmas stocking stuffer? Look no farther than playing a Pick 3 ticket this Friday at Oaklawn Park. Half of the winners on Oaklawn’s card the previous two Fridays paid at least $15 to win, including three 9-1 shots and 14-1, 15-1 and 28-1 winners, respectively. The 50-cent Late Pick 3 this week drew 33 entries and shapes up this way:

OP 8th race (4:46 p.m. EST) -- MYRA’S BOY hit his best stride with two wins and a near miss going 1-1/16 miles at Woodbine this summer. He raced 3-wide most of the way and failed to sustain his usual rally on the all-weather surface when he was claimed from his last start. He’s a longshot worth using. Trainer Brad Cox won with 4 of 6 horses off the claim at Oaklawn this year. He has had two months to work with J.T.’S IMAGINATION, who will have to improve and avoid recurring trouble lines to validate his 7-2 price. The well-traveled AIN’T THAT A KICK returns to Oaklawn a better horse than earlier this year. He rallied to finish second in his last four main track route races, the last three against winning favorites, and once again offers good betting value. OWN THE FIELD is a beatable favorite in the third route race of his career, but he’s hard to leave off the ticket after he gamely braced for the challenge of the top two finishers at Churchill Downs last out and held third on a track that clearly favored wide closers.

OP 9th race (5:14 p.m. EST) -- How deep is the featured $133,000 allowance? The 10 entrants are 29-for-105 at 6F and boast average earnings of $631k in their career. Furthermore, EDGE TO EDGE ran a 101 Beyer speed figure when he won the Eclipse Stakes at Oaklawn in April and he’s 15-1 on the morning line. BANISHING, one troubled trip short of three consecutive victories, gets top billing. He cuts back to a short sprint but gets ample pace flow to rally for another win. RYVIT returns from a 5-1/2-month layoff for Team Asmussen. He romped in a similar spot to begin his 4-year-old season, then battled bravely before a pair of millionaires – including Oaklawn lover and today’s rival TEJANO TWIST -- passed by in the Grade 3 Whitmore.

OP 10th race (5:40 p.m. EST) -- Runners convene from seven racetracks for this $14,000/nw2 sprint and the two morning-line favorites appear vulnerable. DANCE MAN, hard-ridden most of the way at Del Mar last out, didn’t have as much trouble as it appears; however, the top two finishers came back to win $25,000 claiming races with 76 and 75 Beyers, respectively. INDEPENDENT PAUL gets class relief and sheds 11 pounds, but he’s 0-for-10 since a maiden win against New York breds. Go deep in the final leg of the Pick 3.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
OP 8th Race: 1, 5, 8, 10
OP 9th Race: 3, 4, 7
OP 10th Race: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
Cost: $48