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Race of the Week: Saturday's Joe Hernandez at Santa Anita

by Jeremy Plonk

December 26, 2024

The Lead:
Opening week at Santa Anita continues with Saturday's Day 3 card co-featuring the Blue Norther Stakes and the Grade 2 $200,000 Joe Hernandez Stakes. Named for the original and longtime voice of Santa Anita (1934-1972), the Joe Hernandez is a turf sprint down the hill at 6-1/2 furlongs. It goes as Race 6 on the card.

Field Depth:
AIR FORCE RED is a Grade 2 winner, while MOTORIOUS is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed. IRIDEO is Grade 1-placed, while SUMTER is Grade 2-placed. The strongest company lines have been kept by MOTORIOUS and AIR FORCE RED.
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Pace:
The Hernandez doesn't look as blistering early as you might expect for a turf sprint stakes. CODE DUELLO and CENTRAL DISPATCH will show early heat and be pressed by AIR FORCE RED and UNCONQUERABLE KEEN most likely. It's a pretty even pace with on real advantages.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-AIR FORCE RED: The 2022 Joe Hernandez winner has won just 1 of 11 starts since, a Del Mar summer allowance route. But he's razor-sharp down the hill and comes off a September freshening when a very good second over this trip in the Grade 2 Eddie D. Nearly all his top performances have come with Juan Hernandez riding; he's back Saturday.

#2-CODE DUELLO: Back-to-back dirt dash winner at Los Al should provide cheap speed here and a target for the classier rivals. Consistent sort will take them as far as he can, but likely to tire late over 6-1/2 furlongs.

#3-SUMTER: Following 6 straight turf routes, the cutback in trip for this Richard Mandella trainee gives him another shot at spring success. He's 0-5 at the trip, but was competitive in the Clocker's Corner and San Simeon last Classic Meet at Santa Anita. Mandella won this race last year with Forbidden Kingdom, another router who bounced around distances.

#4-IRIDEO: 8-year-old veteran posted a nose upset at 19-1 in the Clocker's Corner over this course and trip in January, but is 1-for-8 since. Beaten a neck as the favorite in a Del Mar allowance Nov. 16 behind Hernandez return rival Central Dispatch. Hasn't show any speed in downhill sprints, so Hector Berrios will have to have him motoring late.

#5-UNCONQUERABLE KEEN: Poor efforts in a pair of downhill sprints at Santa Anita cause concern for a gelding who has been otherwise solid turf sprinting at Del Mar and Santa Anita on traditional layouts. Trainer Phil D'Amato (2018) and jockey Umberto Rispoli (2022) each have victories in this race prior. He's beaten race rivals Sumter and Sorrento Sky, but dropped decisions to Motorious and Irideo.

#6-MOTORIOUS: Just a neck short of Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint glory when runner-up last month, the Del Mar superstar is less effective, yet still successful, at Santa Anita. He won the San Simeon over this course/trip in 2023. The stronger of the Phil D'Amato pair entered along with Unconquerable Queen. Antonio Fresu should have this one rallying late with an obvious major chance. A total standout on speed figures, which will make for a shorter price.

#7-CENTRAL DISPATCH: Jockey Flavien Prat's 35 graded stakes victories so far in 2024 is tied with Jerry Bailey 2003 single-season record. Central Dispatch will be the day's first chance for the record by Prat, who is a 2-time winner of the Hernandez, including last year aboard Forbidden Kingdom. John Sadler steps this 4-year-old Arrogate colt into stakes for the first time, fresh off back-to-back turf sprint wins. He's won on the lead and overcoming traffic at the start in those last pair against easier foes.

#8-GASLIGHT DANCER: New York raider for Rick Dutrow scored an allowance turf sprint at Aqueduct last out and has won 2 of his last 3. Claimed for $35,000 in June, he's got some back class and, not surprisingly, has moved up since the barn transfer to Dutrow. Frankie Dettori partners for the first time with this late-running threat.

#9-SORRENTO SKY: Wide draws are advantageous in downhill turf sprints and it's hard to argue with this one's autumn form off 3 straight solid efforts. Won a downhill turf sprint allowance in October for Phil D'Amato and is the last of 3 reps from the barn in this field.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
MOTORIOUS is a classy and trustworthy sort, and even if best at Del Mar, more than capable here of lighting the ticket.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
GASLIGHT DANCER continues to improve and we don't know his ceiling against the west coast turf sprinters, which could offer value in his first local appearance.​

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$25 exacta part-wheel MOTORIOUS over SUMTER, CENTRAL DISPATCH, GASLIGHT DANCER and SORRENTO SKY.