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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis December 28, 2024

by Al Cimaglia

December 28, 2024

Northfield Park has a 16-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Kant Ketch Kenzie (5-1)-Tossing last versus Open company, drops and lands at a good level for a picture with an inside post draw. Has hit the board in 5 of 7 at Nfld and the Milner barn has been clicking.

5-McVera (4-1)-This will be the 2nd start since shipping in from Btva and has won 4 of 12 at Nfld. Raced an even mile versus better in a needed start and should be better here.

6-Need Ur Opinion (9/2)-This mare does her best work at Philly winning 20 of 36 starts and put in a nice tune-up at Nfld on 12-18 with the trainer steering. Aaron Merriman will be taking a seat in its Nfld Debut. When Kreiser and Merriman team up they post 35% winners.

 

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

3-Smothastenesewisky (4-1)-Shipped back from DTN and put in a needed race against Open Handicap company. Beat better than this back on 11-10 and likes to take pictures in Nfld (92-26-11-10). Merriman grabs the lines and should fit well with this crew.

4-Type A Dragon (7/2)-Keith Kash drove this mare aggressively from the start and landed in 3-hole leaving from the 2nd tier. Got off the rail and didn't look back winning at a healthy 15-1. This won't be as easy but will respect chances of doubling up and should offer a fair price.

 

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Ribbon Ridge (7-1)-Will toss last from post 7 and should be fine battling this crew. The inside post draw can keep this one in the hunt to the wire.

3-Super Girl (8/5)-Winner of 2 straight will be a small price and should get the top without burning much gas. The Burke trainee deserves respect, but this won't be as easy.

5-Ball Diamond (4-1)-Should be racing at the top of the stack, and has been there lately with 1 win in the last 4 starts. If Tyler Angus provides a sharp drive this mare could connect for a picture.

 

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

1-Incredible Claire (5/2)-Comes off a gate to wire score and now faces better. Draws the rail again and Merriman sticks. Looks like a double-up possibility and hopefully won't be over bet.

6-Cold Road Soda (8-1)-Luke Ebersole takes a seat as Merriman picks the rail horse. Got a cozy trip facing this kind and was just nipped at the wire. Camera shy mare will probably be overlooked, and the price should be right to use.

 

$1 Late Pick 4

2,5,6/3,4/2,3,5/1,6

Total Bet=$36