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Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Santa Anita | Monday, January 20, 2025

by Jeff Siegel

January 20, 2025

Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Running Spartan
; 7-Crazy Cavalier; 10-Mr. Leasure
Backups: none.

Forecast: We’ll spread the opener, a maiden $50,000 claiming turf sprint for older horses. Running Spartan shows up in a seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the softer assignment. Freshened since November with several back speed figures that are par for this level, the son of First Samurai projects to be part of a moderate pace and have his chance to stick it out with anything close to his best race. A healthy recent work tab should have him plenty fit enough. Crazy Cavalier, a first-off-the-claim play for D. O’Neill (excellent stats with this angle), tries grass for the first time. He doesn’t really have an obvious turf pedigree, but you never know. He should be quick enough to secure a comfortable second flight, stalking position and have his chance from there. Mr. Leasure, claimed for $50,000 last April, returns waiver protected and lands F. Prat. The. T. Yakteen-trained gelding will need to be a better type this time around based on numbers but that’s possible, especially in his first try on the lawn. He’s worth tossing in somewhere.


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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 12:31 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8-Candyinthemorning
; 1-Happy Chappy; 3-Topper’s Chieftess.
Backups: 5-Harney Lane.

Forecast: Candyinthemorning got a confidence-building win when shipped to Pleasanton last month and if she can replicate that performance in this restricted (nw-2) $8,000 for NorCal based runners she can score right back on this circuit. Nicely drawn outside and catching a very favorable pace scenario, the daughter of Candy Ride might be quick enough to wire a field that doesn’t have much early zip in it. On pure numbers, she’s an absolute fit. Happy Chappy and Topper’s Chieftess van down following nice wins, both accomplished similarly when rallying from mid-pack before drawing clear with authority in the final furlong. Both need to step it up a tad in the figure department, but will be dangerous if the speed types cave in.


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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Touchdown Brown
; 4-Leyas Candy; 6-Joint Venture.
Backups: 2-Coolwind; 7-Taishan.

Forecast: Here’s another spread affair requiring as much protection as your budget allows. Touchdown Brown stretched out to a mile, found himself on the lead, got brave, and kept on going to win a slightly tougher event at Del Mar in mid-November. He’s been away for two months since and is dropping a notch off that victory, not normally a positive pattern, but the barn can be quite aggressive with its claiming stock, so we’ll operate under the assumption that this son of Cairo Prince has at least one more good one left in him. Also, he’s better going long than short based on his numbers, so this is where he should be. Layas Candy has a few races in his chart that if repeated would make him the one to fear most, but he’s strictly a need-the-lead type and is far less effective when he’s unable to control the fractions. The son of Danzing Candy should have his chance to land his role as the controlling speed based our pace projection. Joint Venture is another that prefers the front end but might be reduced to a presser or stalker’s role with ‘Candy drawn inside of him. He’s two-for-two over the Santa Anita main track and that’s the main reason we’ll include him on the top line.


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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Earned Not Given

Backups: 7-Lazio; 1- Noble Minded.

Forecast: Earned Not Given is a lightly raced and developing sophomore fresh from a maiden $50,000 claiming two turn grass score earlier this month, doing so despite a poor break that he managed to overcome in a stylish performance. He’s protected today in a starter allowance company and seems quite likely to step forward again, especially if he can leave with his field. The son of War of Will improved his Beyer speed figure by 15 points off his debut run vs. tougher straight maidens at Del Mar and we’re expecting a similar leap today. The M. Glatt barn hits at a powerful 25% with repeaters, so let’s make this gelding our prime push in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Crystal Proof; 
; 6-Roses R Blue; 1-Greatful Attitude.
Backups: 3-Lion’s Liar.

Forecast: None of these are trustworthy but each has a right to win at this level, so we’ll spread this $5,000 seller that features NorCal invaders. Crystal Proof has enough early speed in a field without much zip to be a major player in a race that should offer soft early splits. This is the cheapest she’s ever run for, and the daughter of Idiot Proof should be able to take advantage of the opportunity. She’s a gambling number at 6-1 on the morning line. Roses R Blue is an older mare with eight prior wins, her most recent up north in early December. She lacks tactical speed but with some help up front could make some noise close home. Greatful Attitude, a close runner-up in the same race ‘Blue won, projects to be within range throughout in the second flight and have her chance to tag the speed. First or second in seven of her 15 career starts, the daughter of Stanford is a dependable sort with a big look if she can avoid trouble from the rail.


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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 5-Ms McWhinney
Backups
: 1-Long Mayshe Reign; 6-Activated.

Forecast: Ms McWhinney seeks her third straight score in her first outing since June in this starter allowance six furlong turf sprint for fillies and mares. Her speed figures are rising, her turn of foot explosive, and this daughter of American Pharoah, claimed for $50,000 last April, is clearly a much better filly since joining the D. O’Neill barn. She earned a career top number in her most recent start over this course in a mile event, but she can sprint just as effectively, and the recent workouts indicate she’s returning better than she left and is fit and ready. She’s listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite and deservedly so.


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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7-Liquid Spirit
, 2-Princess Daddy; 6-Thirsty Mama.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Liquid Spirit won her debut in clever fashion at Los Alamitos facing maiden $50,000 juvenile company and returns in a $25,000 claimer with a speed figure edge is this abbreviated main track dash. This is a realistic spot, though we’d probably approach the race with a bit more confidence if she was being protected. The B. Koriner-trained filly looks like claim bait on paper and maybe that’s what her connections want. Princess Daddyreturns to the claiming ranks for the first time since she won her debut at Del Mar last summer. Like our top pick, this is the right spot for her and with the addition of blinkers combined with the class drop the daughter of Stay Thirsty looks extremely well-meant. Thirsty Mama is another class dropper seeking her proper level. She picks up F. Prat, has been no worse than second in three prior outings over the Santa Anita main track, and is a major player in a contentious affair.


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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 3:36 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8-Pura Vita Princesa
; 10-Firenze Flavor.
Backups: 5-Footnote.

Forecast: With the benefit of three sprint races under her belt, Pura Vida Princesa stretches out to a mile and should have the proper style and foundation to easily cope with the step up in trip. Nosed out in a maiden special weight turf sprint in her most recent outing in an effort that earned a career top number, the D. O’Neill-trained daughter of Complexity isn’t really bred to route but should be able run this far, at least in her first try. We expect to see her on or near the lead. Firenze Flavor closed a gap in her debut over a mile without being knocked about and is eligible to step up big time with that bit of experience behind her. The outside draw does her no favors, but she gets Lasix and U. Rispoli and with some help up front could be dangerous in the final furlong.


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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Navy Man
; 6-Saltwater Cowboy.
Backups: 4-Last Call London.

Forecast: Navy Man tackles much easier foes and returns to his best distance (dirt mile), so we’re anticipating a vastly improved performance by the once well-regarded gelding in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 seller for older horses. This is a realistic spot for the now 5-year-old son of Bolt d’Oro, who was stakes placed on this circuit as a 3-year-old a couple of years ago. A repeat of his starter’s allowance two races back over this track and distance should be more than good enough under F. Prat. Front-running tactics likely will be employed with Saltwater Cowboy, who could get brave if not pressured early. He’s reunited with A. Fresu, who was aboard the son of Mastery in a gate-to-wire tally at Los Alamitos two races back.


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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 4:36 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 8-Jubilant Joanie

Backups: none.

Forecast: At 3/5 on the morning line, Jubilant Joanie is a layover in this starter optional claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Very fast for this level on speed figures and a winner of six of her last seven starts, the J. Mullins-trained filly suffered her only defeat during that span when she was second to undefeated Cavalieri, who is on track to become one of the best in the 2025 older filly and mare division nationally. She has no such competition to worry about today.


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