The Lead:
With a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 wager set for Saturday at Gulfstream, the featured Race 11 Grade 3 Royal Delta Stakes takes on even more importance. It's also part of Xpressbet's 20th annual Beat the Host contest Week 7 of 8, where I'll be the host in the hot seat this week. Consider this my welcoming gift to the competition -- you're on your own for the other 9 contest races (last 5 at Gulfstream, first 5 at Santa Anita).

​Field Depth:
INTREPID DAYDREAM and RIDING PRETTY are Grade 3-placed, but none of these runners owns any discernible class edge. LIBBAN has faced the strongest competition consistently but has been overmatched in those higher-end efforts.
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Pace:
The 11-runner lineup matches up over 1-1/16 miles, meaning a short run to the clubhouse turn and the sixteenth-pole finish line in play. Position and early pace often are keys in these races. Four runners are almost exclusively 1-turn performers on the stretch-out: INTREPID DAYDREAM, DAZZLING MOVE, GRAND JOB and AUTUMN EVENING. All are expected to be in the first flight, while GRAND JOB appears the most naturally gifted and likely pacesetter. DREAM CONCERT and LIBBAN may also add to an expected solid pace.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-AMERICAN RETRO: Trainer Ian Wilkes (pictured) is going very well right now and this one exits a fourth-place effort in Tampa's Wayward Lass, the first time in 5 starts on dirt that she's missed the exacta. Should get a great trip from the rail and sitting midflight behind the early pace. Contender at a square 8-1 morning line price.

#2-DREAM CONCERT: Pacemaker in the Wayward Lass at Tampa last out is cross-entered at her home track in a Friday allowance and we'll see which race trainer Kathlee O'Connell picks. Good draw and pace rider Javier Castellano play to her benefit here.

#3-FORESEEN: Since taking 8 tries to break her maiden, she's finished off the board in her last 2 and makes a curious rise into stakes when eligible for a first-level allowance. Rusty Arnold struggling to find success at the meet and this placement won't make that any easier, though she is working well.

#4-LIBBAN: Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has won this race 3 of the last 5 years and has 3 entrants on Saturday. Mare has been out of the money in all 6 graded stakes attempts, but doesn't meet anyone here of high-level success. Pressed pace and faded to fifth in this race last year and remains a distance question.

#5-INTREPID DAYDREAM: Successful Maryland sprinter was privately purchased late in 2023 when in career form, but is 0-4 for the new connections in the 15 months since. She did break her maiden over 1-1/16 miles at Delaware Park in her second lifetime start but hasn't been sent long in 15 subsequent races. Inconsistent workout tab leaves some questions after Jan. 11 bullet half-mile. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has won this race 3 of the last 5 years and has 3 entrants on Saturday.

#6-RIDING PRETTY: Form cycle players will find something to like here as she won stakes at Monmouth vs. fellow NJ-breds each of the last 2 times making a surface change back to dirt. She's second off the layoff and moving synthetic to dirt in what might have been a more effective Jan. 18 Tapeta tuneup than the running line suggests.

#7-DAZZLING MOVE: Newcomer to the barn for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who has won this race 3 of the last 5 years. Did all her work around 1 turn in prior Gulfstream dirt starts when with Mike Trombetta. She broke her maiden over this track at a mile in the slop last March and has multiple top-4 listed stakes finishes since. Jockey Dylan Davis has paired exceptionally well with Joseph at the meet, winning 3 of their first 4 in tandem.

#8-GRAND JOB: Irish export has wired both American starts since arriving in Bill Mott's care. The daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify outsprinted Aqueduct maidens over 7 furlongs and then Churchill 1-turn mile allowance foes to start December. Plenty of speed to her inside, so she'll either be wide and stalking in a new plot twist, or hard-used to clear into the first turn. She'll have to be best to overcome those factors, and may be, but not willing to take a short price to find out at 9-5 morning line.

#9-MISS NEW YORK: Gulfstream-based filly makes her first local dirt start after spending much time on the road in recent seasons. Monmouth 2-turn route stakes winner and Laurel 1-turn mile stakes winner fits very well with this particular group on paper and over the Royal Delta distance. Four straight exacta finishes at a mile or longer.

#10-AUTUMN EVENING: Trainer Todd Pletcher holds the Royal Delta Stakes record with 4 victories, most recently in 2023. John Velazquez also has the stakes record for jockey wins in this race (4), last scoring in 2012. They'll team up with this Jan. 2 allowance sprint winner as she tries 2 turns for the first time. Tough post for what appears to be a pressing running style with a big chance to lose ground early.

#11-NEON ICON: Arrogate filly is 2-for-2 at Keeneland and 1-for-6 everywhere else for trainer Rusty Arnold. The 4-year-old was a no-threat fourth in the Grade 3 Falls City in November in her only start when meeting elders. With patient Joel Rosario riding, the plan likely from this far outside post likely will be to drop far back, save some ground and try to loop as many as they can late.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
AMERICAN RETRO is 5-5 in the superfecta on dirt with 4 exacta finishes. She benefits from the rail over this configuration.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
RIDING PRETTY's form cycle could be set for price success at 20-1 morning line.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 win AMERICAN RETRO. $10 win-place RIDING PRETTY ($20). We'll see which one I use, based on prices, for Xpressbet Beat the Host.