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Frank Carulli: Tampa Bay Downs Pick 3 Analysis | Friday, February 14, 2025

by Frank Carulli

February 12, 2025

Crowded fields and a pair of one mile turf races comprise the Late Pick 3 at Tampa Bay Downs this Friday, Feb. 14. All three races drew double-digit entries, perhaps setting the stage for a re-run of last Friday’s card when favorites struggled and the winners went off at 6-1, 8-1 and 5-2. Here’s a closer look:

TAM 7th race (3:54 p.m. EST) -- TRIUMPHANT ROAD took the class plunge in his first start for high-percentage trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., emerged on a brief lead after he was bumped leaving the 1/8th pole and finished second to the favorite, clearly establishing himself as the one to beat. But as one of four entrants winless with at least 10 starts on turf, add a couple longshots to the ticket. DIFFUSION debuts for trainer Mike Dini, who is 19-for-50 the last 2 years with maiden claimers on the turf, with nine of the winners going off at 5-1 or higher. SKYLER’S ARETMIS raced far back on the drop to this level when last seen in August, but he showed good speed in sprints last summer and attended to a slow pace for 6F the only other time he ran on turf, facing the likes of Quokka ($113k), stakes-placed Heartened and next-out Maiden Special Weight winner Horton (82 Beyer). GRAND PARK VIEW, heavily bet while finishing in the money in three consecutive sprints, should lead for as far as he goes in his first long-distance test. He is by multiple graded stakes-winning router Girvin, whose offspring are only 2-73 in turf routes. OCALA ROCKET, dismissed at 4-1 odds or less in seven of his last eight starts, rallied mildly while 3-wide but was out-kicked late for third for a $20,000 tag last out.

TAM 8th race (4:25 p.m. EST) -- SEA ART rallied 4-wide at the quarter pole but settled for second behind 2-to-5 favorite Miuccia, a stakes-winning and Grade 3-placed sprinter. She should sit a good trip at a distance which she has earned more than half of her $212k bankroll. HOPESNDREAMS hasn’t won on conventional dirt since she beat four rivals at Tampa 10 months ago. But she has been a model of consistency since then, spanning various tracks and surfaces. HAPPY BELLA showed promise winning her seasonal debut despite drifting off the rail in her first start on conventional dirt. Her speed is compromised on the class rise in this field, but she can’t be discounted in a 20-percent ‘repeat’ barn.

TAM 9th race (4:55 p.m. EST) -- ERA unleashed a powerful 5-wide rally on the final turn and won going away at this distance for a repeat victory at this level. OUR FLAG FLYING was overmatched in a 1-1/8-mile allowance in her first start for top connections, but she worked in :48-1/5 since then, runs for the cheapest tag of her career and met eventual three-peat winners in her last two go-rounds on turf. WHISPERING SEA found herself in an unfamiliar lead role and tired badly in a four-horse field that was scheduled for turf. She rallied for a win, two seconds and a third in her previous five starts on the lawn and deserves a chance to bounce back. (NOTE: Add #11 POSTINO’S PROPHECY and #12 PURE MAGIC GIRL if they draw into the race.)

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
TAM 7th Race: 2, 3, 5, 8
TAM 8th Race: 4, 5, 6
TAM 9th Race: 1, 5, 7 (Add #s 11 and 12 if they draw into race.)
Cost: $18