The Lead:
Winter weather has pushed back racing this week at Oaklawn and Saturday's originally scheduled Rebel Stakes Day card instead will be offered Sunday. That includes its supporting features, of which the $500,000 Grade 3 Razorback Handicap goes as Race 10. The Razorback will be part of a 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split over the late pick 4 sequence, which includes the Grade 3 Honeybee in the Race 9 kickoff as well as the Grade 2 Rebel in Race 11.

​Field Depth:
CRUPI is a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed. FIRST MISSION and RED ROUTE ONE also are Grade 2 winners. SKINNER has won at the Grade 3 level and is Grade 1-placed. CREATIVE MINISTER was third in the 2022 Grade 1 Preakness, while COOKE CREEK is Grade 2-placed. This is a very strong field for a Grade 3 and those on the class rise have a huge hurdle. CRUPI and FIRST MISSION have held the strongest company lines overall.
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Pace:
How hard Flavien Prat sends BANISHING from post 2 tells the pace tale. FIRST MISSION likely sends from post 3 with speedy ALEXANDER HELIOS breaking next door. COOKE CREEK the only other interested party in the early mix. Deep closers will be up against the projected race shape, especially at just 1-1/16 miles in distance, unless .

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-CRUPI: Shortest trip for this classy closer since breaking his maiden at Monmouth in July '23. Dylan Davis takes over the controls for the first time on this Todd Pletcher trainee, and this tandem wins 35% with a massive $2.20 ROI for every $1 bet since the start of 2024. First OP attempt, but sire Curlin won the Rebel and Arkansas Derby there. Late threat, but pace set-up works against him.

#2-BANISHING: Red-hot gelding is a head shy from 5 straight wins and has been a different performer since coming to David Jacobson's barn. Flavien Prat takes the call for this class test, and he's perfectly drawn to make them work to get past him. Ghostzapper colt won at this trip twice previously when with Brendan Walsh.

#3-FIRST MISSION: First start since August for last year's local Essex winner. Brad Cox got off to a horrific start at the meet but has won 35% locally since late January and this one is working bullets at Fair Grounds for the return. Should be forward throughout.

#4-ALEXANDER HELIOS: Gulfstream allowance winner makes a return trip to Oaklawn, having gone 3: 1-0-2 here in allowance company in 2024. Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee has been consistent and his runner-up to Hit Show in a Churchill allowance last May was against a horse of similar quality to these. Second-off-the-layoff always a form cycle of note.

#5-SKINNER: California export didn't move forward off the barn change to Cherie DeVaux when third in Fair Grounds' Louisiana Stakes. Didn't take a step back either, just continues to be a solid, late-running sort. Sire Curlin won the Rebel and Arkansas Derby locally, so he might perk up over this track for the first time. FG leading jockey Jose Ortiz rides him back on the road trip.

#6-FULL SCREEN: Moved too soon into fast pace of the Tinsel Stakes in January over 9 furlongs and flattened out late. Meets tougher here may be destined for another flat finish vs. this quality of competition.

#7-DIMATIC: Last year's Zia Park Derby winner takes on elder stakes horses for the first time and needs a career-best to be competitive. Trainer Steve Asmussen has gotten mixed reviews out of his one in prior Oaklawn starts.

#8-BADDEST GOOD BOY: Least-experienced Razorback entrant is 2-for-2, winning a maiden and allowance already at the Oaklawn meet. Got very favorable pace set-ups in both, however, and will be challenged to continue his winning ways vs. much tougher foes.

#9-HENRO: Late-running sprinter did win the Iowa Derby over this trip last July, but didn't come with any late flair in the slow-paced Fifth Season Stakes here January 25. Feast of famine 6: 3-0-0 record over this track for Chris Hartman.

#10-COOKE CREEK: Mike Maker trainee found his groove between May-September last year, but went off form since and has been inconsistent throughout his career. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides and this one typically doesn't get involved at any point if he's not in the race from the outset. You'll know a quarter-mile into the Razorback.

#11-TONKA WARRIOR: Longshot closer lacks any early speed and looks to snap a 6t-race losing streak while meeting the toughest field of his career. Couple decent tries at the meet, but faces tougher Sunday.

#12-RED ROUTE ONE (pictured): Deep closer has been inconsistent over the years, but never has excelled at 1-1/16 miles (8: 0-3-2). Won the 9F New Orleans Classic and Cornhusker last year in a lucrative campaign, but the race has to melt down at this distance to come back to him.

#13-CREATIVE MINISTER: The 2022 Preakness third-place finisher is still eligible for N2X allowance after 22 starts. He runs the same race in terms of impact and speed figures nearly every trip. Wide draw means he'll likely drop back farther than usual to avoid ground loss.

#14-SEIZE THE NIGHT: Sidelined after the Essex last March, he's run 3 times back in his form cycle with a Tinsel Stakes win sandwiched between a pair of no-threat performances. Difficult to recommend vs. these from 14-hole.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
BANISHING is in raging form, gets Prat, drawn perfectly and proven over the track and distance.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
COOKE CREEK could stick around if he's into the mix early, though wildly inconsistent, his best makes him a factor.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 win BANISHING. $10 daily double part-wheel BANISHING to MADAKET ROAD and TIZTASTIC in the Race 11 Rebel ($20).