The Lead:
Led by the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, Kentucky Derby Future Wager favorite Barnes in the San Felipe, and a pair of graded turf stakes, Saturday's card at The Great Race Place will be its most important of 2025 so far. The historic Big 'Cap at 1-1/4 miles goes as Race 10 and has an influx of intrigue as Todd Pletcher brings Locked from Florida and Brad Cox sends Hit Show from New Orleans.

The Santa Anita Handicap is part of Saturday's $5,000 Exacta-Thon promotion from 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Horseplayers on both platforms can share in additional money by successfully hitting exactas on the Santa Anita card as well as Gulfstream Park's Fountain of Youth Day program.

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners LOCKED and EXPRESS TOUR have the signature scores in this race, while HIT SHOW, J B STRIKES BACK and KATONAH are Grade 2 winners. MIRAHMADI is Grade 1-placed. There's no overwhelming class edge here, more so a decision pending on how the eastern and midwest form of LOCKED and HIT SHOW compare with the western handicap division.
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Pace:
MIRAHMADI has more natural speed than these and likely will be sent to the front, though J B STRIKES BACK is the inner-most speed in post 4 to his inside and outside pressing could come from MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH and TARANTINO. This should be a solid to quick pace for 1-1/4 miles. Note both the San Pasqual and Laffit Pincay Jr. preps had opening half-miles in the 45s, and horses part of those mixes do return here.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-EXPRESS TRAIN: 2022 Santa Anita Handicap winner, now age 8, hasn't won in 7 limited starts since signature career victory. Missed all of 2023 and was competitive in 3 stakes last year upon his reappearance for trainer John Shirreffs. Runner-up Jan. 25 in the Grade 2 San Pasqual local prep to return rival Katonah. A win would match 1947 Big 'Cap hero Olhaverry for the eldest runner to do so.

#2-NEW KING: Most lightly raced runner in the field makes his sixth career start and first stakes appearance. Bob Baffert trainee was no match for stablemate and SA Handicap rival Mirahmadi in a January allowance matchup but won his last start over 1-1/16 miles. Into Mischief colt assigned just 115 pounds on the handicap scale and partners with Mike Smith for the first time.

#3-HIT SHOW: $1.4 million earner won 4 of 6 races in 2024 and opened his current season a winner in the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes at Fair Grounds with a furious late rally. Carried co-top weight of 124 pounds in the Big 'Cap and lures stakes phenom pilot Flavien Prat. Well-traveled colt will make Santa Anita the 12th different track at which he's competed. First try at 1-1/4 miles since finishing fifth in the 2023 Kentucky Derby.

#4-J B STRIKES BACK: Trainer Doug O'Neill lost him in a $20,000 maiden claimer last summer at Del Mar, claimed him back immediately for $25,000 and has orchestrated a rapid rise since. Won back-to-back Del Mar allowances in November and then pulled a 16-1 upset in the Grade 2 Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes at Santa Anita on Dec. 26. All or nothing at 9: 4-0-0, this will be his first start beyond 1-1/16 miles.

#5-MIRAHMADI: $1 million Into Mischief colt struggled to find the winner's circle until his ninth start, many of those efforts at Del Mar. His Santa Anita form, however, has been outstanding (3: 2-1-0), including an October maiden romp by 10 lengths and a Jan. 4 allowance wire job by 4-1/2 lengths. Juan Hernandez pilots and they're assigned a feathery 116 pounds, getting as many as 8 pounds from the favorites -- significant over 10 furlongs. Training exceptionally well and we'll see how far he can take them.

#6-KATONAH: Doug O'Neill trainee returned from a year layoff last summer for a 5-race campaign that saw him second in the San Diego and fifth in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, both at Del Mar. He opened 2025 with a rallying win in the Grade 2 San Pasqual over 9 furlongs at Santa Anita. He's 4-for-10 here on dirt and 1-for-7 in all other spots. Regular rider Tiago Pereira returns.

#7-LOCKED: Likely favorite carries co-top weight of 124 pounds off a win in Aqueduct's Grade 2 Cigar Mile and runner-up in Gulfstream's Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup. He's been bet to favoritism in each of his last 6 starts. Jose Ortiz returns to the saddle and replaces John Velazquez, who opts to ride Todd Pletcher stablemate River Thames in Gulfstream's same-day Fountain of Youth Stakes. Locked is 3: 1-1-1 in true, 2-turn races and this will be the longest test of his career while adding blinkers for the first time.

#8-MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH: Pace factor wilted at 23-1 in the Grade 2 Pasqual local prep and could factor in the early tempo at best. He did win Del Mar's Grade 3 Cougar II over 12 furlongs this summer but has been well off that form in his last 2. Craig Dollase legs up jockey Armando Ayuso.

#9-TARANTINO: Peter Eurton claimed this one for $40,000 last summer at Del Mar and has gotten a strong return. He's 5: 2-2-1 since, including runner-up performances in the Grade 2 Laffit Pincay Jr. and Grade 3 Native Diver. Flat finishes late have been his downfall going shorter and he'll need an unlikely softer early pace to extend the trip to 10 furlongs.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
HIT SHOW has won 5 of 7 starts over the past year and has a determined late style that should translate well to a 1-1/4 miles race that appears to have a legitimate pace. Flavien Prat doesn't make many mistakes.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
KATONAH won't be a massive price, but not among the favorites, and his Santa Anita form puts him in the mix. While he hasn't been this far, he gave the appearance in the San Pasqual that he'll be running better than several of these late.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$90 win HIT SHOW. $5 exacta part-wheel HIT SHOW over KATONAH, MIRAHMADI ($10).