I analyzed it on the blog last weekend (and whiffed badly) but wanted to continue to highlight the new middle Pick 5 at Gulfstream Park. It has a 15% takeout rate, is for retail players only, and starts in Race 3 on any card with 11 races or more. This Saturday’s sequence not only is attractive for those reasons, but it also contains both stake races on the docket.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 3:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Niko Time; 6 Absolutely Hot
Backups: 1 Frantic; 7 Benny the Waiter

Forecast: A MSW event going 5-furlongs over the lawn kicks things off where #6 Absolutely Hot was made the 2-1-morning line favorite and deservingly so. Trainer Dale Romans has had a great meet and this colt ran a solid second to a winner that got the jump at a much shorter price. A move forward second off the break makes him tough to beat. #2 Niko Time will provide more value though. The $300k FTS August 2023 purchase was beaten out of his inside draw and hustled up the inside before evening out on debut, but took significant public support for a Nacho Correas IV trainee in Florida. Expect more speed from this Munnings colt who offers solid value at his 10-1-offering.

I will use the Anthony Sciametta Jr. trainees as backups. #1. Frantic exits the same race as Absolutely Hot where he ran an even fourth. He gets blinkers for his second start. #7 Benny the Waiter makes his Stateside debut. His only career try came in France last August. He is a total wild card.


Race 4: Hutcheson
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Multiverse
Backups: 2 Guns Loaded

Forecast: It was difficult to get creative in this year’s Hutcheson where I landed on #6 Multiverse. The Pin Oak Stud gelding failed to hit the board in his first two starts, but has moved forward nicely over his last two runs for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. The son of Practical Joke got a favorable setup in his maiden breaking performance last out and gets a class test here, but has been better since arriving in Florida. This could be his coming out party.

Guns Loaded brings the strongest resume in. He has done little wrong in one-turn races and won the Mucho Macho Man in early January. He should relish the cutback after showing two-turns was too much for him in the Holy Bull (G3). I am just concerned with him being drawn down on the inside after his speed might be a bit dull exiting longer races.

Race 5:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 Senor Money; 1 Plex
Backups: None

Forecast: #5 Lawler drops in class for trainer Ruben Sierra and was made the 5-2-morning line favorite despite 8 chances already. The Florida-bred was competitive against state-bred protected maidens as a 2YO, but has gone the wrong way of late. I will try to beat him with a couple of runners that have less experience and should offer better value.

#4 Senor Money returns off a 6-week freshening for trainer Jose Pinchin. He gets blinkers for the first time and retains Luis Saez. #1 Plex takes a huge drop out of MSW company for Fernando Abreu. He did no running that day, but faces far easier competition than he did in late January.



Race 6:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6 Sweet Sash; 3 In Other Words
Backups: 9 Solidaria

Forecast: Of the two top choices on Brian Nadeau’s morning line, I prefer 5-2-favorite #9 Solidaria over #2 Garuda. Solidaria had to work along the inside last out against better and she has had success over this surface. That said, this is her fourth race in six weeks, so expecting a move forward off of her last might be wishful thinking.

I will try to beat both favorites with #3 In Other Words and #6 Sweet Sash. I like Sweet Sash a touch more despite beating beaten handily by Solidaria last out. She gets blinkers, will be a far better price, and should have a move forward in her. In Other Words added shades last time and ran second beaten just half a length at nearly 10-1. She had an odd voyage that day that day but re-rallied to almost get the money. A cleaner trip could lead to her back to the winner’s circle.




Race 7: Captiva Island
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7 Just a Care
Backups: 3 None

Forecast: I am all in on #7 Just a Care in this 5-furlong dash over the lawn. The Australia mare brought a 2-race win streak into the Ladies’ Turf Sprint last month, but was unable to get to #5 Epona’s Hope despite being best. Epona’s Hope had things all her way on the front end, while the Brian Lynch trainee was forced to make a 4-wide middle move. The race shape is likely to be a lot different in this spot though given the speed to Epona’s Hope inside. This should allow Junior Alvarado to roll by this group late with one of the likelier winners on the day.