It is closing weekend for the Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park, which means one more Saturday chance at the 15% takeout, retail only middle Pick 5 wager. As always it kicks off in Race 3 and this time includes four stake races and a competitive MSW for 3YOs. Big prices are not easy to find within the sequence, so keeping tickets thin and pressing up on your strongest opinion definitely feels like the right approach.


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 3: Cutler Bay
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Forged Steel
Backups: 5 Wakan

Forecast: I have little interest in fading 5-2-morning line favorite #9 Forged Steel to kick off the sequence. The Vekoma colt should be poised for his best third off the layoff after chasing the fast pace of gate-to-wire winner Mi Bago last out in the Colonel Liam. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. turns to Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time. Irad should be able to stalk just off the early pace and handle a modest group of turf routers.

#5 Wakan offers the best chance at springing a minor upset. The Malibu Moon colt speed burnt a field of maidens to get Pegasus World Cup Day started in late January and was also caught in chase mode in the Colonel Liam. If jockey Edwin Gonzalez can avoid getting caught up in an early tussle, this colt has a shot to earn his first stakes score.


Race 4: Orchid (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Beach Bomb
Backups: 1 Silvology

Forecast: Trainer Christophe Clement has won the Orchid (G3) eight times and hopes to make it nine with 8-5-morning line favorite #2 La Mehana or European import #4 Sacaya. La Mehana makes plenty of sense since she has hit the board in all four starts over this course and won 7 of 20 overall, but she has struggled to seal the deal with authority since arriving in North America. The Lsu Stables mare will likely be there again at the wire, but I do not trust her to get there first.

I prefer second choice #6 Beach Bomb. The 5YO mare gave trainer Graham Motion one of his very few victories this winter in Hallandale Beach earlier this month in the Very One (G3). It was jockey Luis Saez’s ability to get this gal into the race early and control the tempo that made the difference. The South African-bred is classy and should be tough to by late once again.

#1 Silvology gets a class test for Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, but has been at her best since stretching out to these “marathon” type of distances to start her 4YO season. She has rattled off two in a row against lesser, retains the services of jockey Dylan Davis, and will provide separation since most horseplayers will likely live and die with one or both of the favorites.


Race 5:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 X Y Prime; 6 Mainstream
Backups: None

Forecast: I landed on a pair of logical runners in this 7-furlong MSW affair for 3YOs with my top choice being #4 X Y Prime. The $250k September 2023 purchase ran a better than looks third on debut when he battled early and tried hard to the wire going 6-furlongs on February 8. Trainer Jorge Delgado has given him seven weeks and stretches him out a furlong. The experience gained first out could end up being the difference.

#6 Mainstream lacks experience, but appears to be training forwardly heading into his first start for trainer Brad Cox. The $485k FTS August 2023 purchase posted a bullet 4-furlong drill in 49 flat at Payson Park on March 9 and appears more than ready to fire big at first asking. His dam, Lesley May, is a half-sister to $1.06M earner Uncaptured. He is my preference of those making their first lifetime start.


Race 6: Pan American (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Tawny Port; 4 Far Bridge
Backups: 1 Corruption

Forecast: In Christophe Clement I trust in this 10-furlong Grade 3 event over the lawn. #4 Far Bridge is the obvious Clement trainee. The son of English Channel makes his first start since a less-than-ideal voyage in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) last fall. His best beats these and he is a perfect 3 for 3 over this course, but at the same point this is far from the ultimate goal, he is going to be a short price, and he will have to work out a trip as always.

His stablemate #5 Tawny Port also makes his first start of 2025. He has struggled to win races of late, but has been competitive. I found it intriguing Dylan Davis is onboard him instead of #1 Corruption. I am almost sure it is a commitment to the Clement barn by Davis, but perhaps the “other” Clement can help us gain some major separation within what could be a formful sequence.


Race 7: Ghostzapper (G3)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 White Abarrio
Backups: None

Forecast: Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner #4 White Abarrio makes a somewhat surprising start in this Grade 3 event at 8.5-furlongs, but obviously stands out. One could make the case the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee will be nowhere near cranked for this and that he has thrown in some clunkers, but even his B- game should handle this bunch. With two months rest, look for the $6.8M earner to stalk early and pull away late under regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr.