The Lead:
Santa Anita Derby Day at The Great Race Place features Kentucky Derby prospects in the Race 10 main event in addition to four undercard stakes races. The Grade 3 Monrovia for downhill turf sprint mares hits in Race 5 of 12 and leads into the Evening Jewel Stakes next. I'll try to pair up top players in those 2 for my midday key.

​Field Depth:
Stakes winners QUEEN MAXIMA, QUEEN OF THE MUD and OMAHA GIRL top the field, all in search of their first graded stakes scores. OMAHA GIRL has kept the strongest strength of schedule.
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Pace:
There's some 2-turn turf route speed here, but not much by way of a turf sprint down the hill. OMAHA GIRL and QUEEN OF THE MUD may contest the front on the cut-back, but QUEEN MAXIMA can be right into the mix close.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-OMAHA GIRL: Loose leader in turf routes wasn't able to sustain in the Unzip Me last September the last time over this downhill trip. She's lost 9 straight stakes and is 5: 0-0-0 on the local lawn. Trainer George Papaprodromou is 1-15 at the meet in downhill turf sprints. Better options.

#2-SAFA: Consistent Santa Anita turfer is 5-6 in the exacta on the local lawn, but 4 times the bridesmaid. Cal-bred goes here in open company vs. the Evening Jewel in Race 6 on dirt, a race in which she was a narrow runner-up in last year. Positive vibe in that move by trainer Gary Stute, who won the Monrovia back in 2005 with Awesome Lady.

#3-ANG N ASH: Claimed 4 times since August, the Ryan Hanson barn re-acquired this one for $50,000 on March 1 off a rallying victory. Hard to argue with the SA turf mark at 9: 3-0-5 and consistency despite multiple new programs. Needs a pretty sizable move forward to contend for the top spot.

#4-QUEEN OF THE MUD: Swingtime Stakes winner over this course in her only trip west for Graham Motion. That mile race saw a dream run up the rail, but she accelerated nicely and came home the final furlong in 11-3/5, the kind of turn of foot needed sprinting down the hill. She might be quick enough to make the lead, which would make her dangerous as a fresh face on the cut-back. Umberto Rispoli won this race last year on Ag Bullet and hops off Venganza to ride for the first time. A reliable 8-8 in the superfecta lifetime.

#5-VENGANZA: Three-time Monrovia winner Richard Mandella has won this race in a trio of decades (1986, 2001 and 2019) and seeks a fourth. He's tied with legends Bobby Frankel and Charlie Whittingham for most Monrovia scores. Two-time allowance winner sprinting down the hill this meeting, but visually looked more grinder than elite-end get-up-and-go. Umberto Rispoli jumps to ride Queen of the Mud.

#6-QUEEN MAXIMA: Jeff Mullins' barn has been on a tear this meet with downhill turf sprinters (12: 4-6-0), including this one's visually stunning Jan. 23 allowance win. That preceded her stakes victory in the Wishing Well on the main course over 6 furlongs. She's won 3 straight as an odds-on favorite and is 4-5 in the morning line to notch a fourth such popular score.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
QUEEN MAXIMA is 6-6 in the exacta in turf sprints and in peak form for a barn that's not missing the mark in these kind of races all season.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
ANG N ASH jockey Kyle Frey has won 4-14 (29%) downhill turf sprints at the meet for a rousing $2.76 ROI for every $1 bet. He's got a pair of $33 winners along with an 11-1 runner-up and 16-1 third-place finisher. She could land a share.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Favorites have won the Monrovia 10 of the last 20 years and I'm not going against QUEEN MAXIMA. Use her in a $90 daily double to #4 IN THE AIR TONIGHT (who gets a great pace set-up to rally past them in Race 6 and should be a a fair price). Add a small $10 exacta QUEEN MAXIMA over longshot contender ANG N ASH intra-race.