by Jeremy Plonk
April 9, 2025
With 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points adding to the value of Wednesday and Sunday late pick four sequences at Keeneland, let’s dig into the quartet. Races 5-8 close the day at Keeneland and I’ve got an extremely focused ticket with a few of the best bets on the card.
Race 5
Turf sprints may feel chaotic to many players, but knuckling down here separates you from the timid, especially in the first leg of a sequence when many are just hoping to stay alive. #9 Demolition Duke gets an absolutely mouthwatering pace set-up for his late rally. He ran a bang-up second here last Spring, so the course/trip are up his alley. Trainer Brendan Walsh has won a race each of the first 3 days of the meet and jockey Jose Ortiz had a riding double twice in the first 3 days. Single, but in the event of a scratch, #8 Urban Legend, #6 Boltage and #4 Let It Ride are preferred in order.
Race 6
Starter allowance races are particularly chalky historically and #4 Tiger’s Legacy should be a standout favorite. You can’t fit the conditions of a $30,000 starter allowance any better than him; he won at Keeneland by 7-1/4 lengths the one and only time dropped to this max level for eligibility. You get Flavien Prat coming off a 3-win day on Tuesday. #9 Norwich also has the 1 drop and win for the $30,000 level going for him, while #6 Sir Pistolero makes a solid case as the other top contender. Another potential single, certainly not willing to go any more than 3-deep.
Race 7
Deepest race of the sequence has good options and worthy of some spread, especially if #13 Hymn and/or #14 Valentian are included from the also-eligible list. Hymn goes as my top pick after hinting at major stakes talent in his Oaklawn debut and should benefit second time routing – even if from a potentially bad post. #6 Lion of Justice is going to get hammered in the betting for a Brad Cox barn that won 3 on Tuesday and had single wins the first 2 days of the meet. No idea what he beat at Colonial when running super-fast over a track that was lightning quick. Respect this $1.1 million colt. #2 Bracket Buster and #10 Skate Away are both sired by Blue Grass winners who have had a lot of success locally with their offspring – including the former colt winning here last year. Depending on the also-eligibles, a legitimate five win contenders here.
Race 8
The bold single here of 12-1 morning line shot #8 Ngannou can separate us from a lot of players – even if he’s bet down shorter than the line (which I think he will). Trainer Brendan Walsh is off to a super start and note this colt has trained up to 2 starts in his career – a debut second by a half-length at Del Mar in 2023 to eventual Hollywood Derby winner Formidable Man and his 2024 season return maiden victory at Santa Anita against British Isles, whom he faces here coincidentally. This is a deep race with several other options if you’re not as sold on the top pick as I am, making it the classic “single or spread.” When posed with that, my attack is always to single. Others in the mix in the event of a scratch include #s 5,3,10,7 and that’s not even comfortable coverage.
The Tickets:
9 with 4 with 13,14,6,2,10 with 8 = $2.50 for each 50 cents (play multiple tickets)
9 with 9,6 with 13,14,6,2,10 with 8 = $5 for each 50 cents (play once)